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Blurring the lines: The case of the Nakhsa Warriors
Photo by Rouzbeh Fouladi/NurPhoto via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Blurring the lines: The case of the Nakhsa Warriors

    Blurring the lines between the physical world and the online one, the Iranian group known as the “Nakhsa Warriors” remains cloaked in mystery. Their identity and status are unclear. Are they a military force that carries out operations, an online group of like-minded individuals that share content, part of an Iranian disinformation campaign — or perhaps something else altogether?

    April 7, 2020

    How Iran and Turkey are coping with COVID-19
    Middle East Institute
  • Podcast
  • How Iran and Turkey are coping with COVID-19

    Gonul Tol and Alex Vatanka join host Alistair Taylor to discuss how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting Iran, one of the first countries hit by the outbreak, and Turkey, where it arrived later but has since spread rapidly.

    April 3, 2020

    The Black Sea and COVID-19
  • Analysis
  • The Black Sea and COVID-19

    As with the rest of the world, COVID-19 is likely to wreak havoc across the Black Sea region in a very short period of time. With the outbreak projected to peak in April or May – and with some predicting the pandemic will last two years and infect 60 to 70 percent of the global population – it is difficult to fathom the potential consequences for this region. 

    March 31, 2020

    The fight for Syria’s skies: Turkey challenges Russia with new drone doctrine
    Photo by Muhammed Enes Yildirim/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The fight for Syria’s skies: Turkey challenges Russia with new drone doctrine

    In retaliation for an airstrike that killed 33 Turkish soldiers at the end of February, Ankara launched “Operation Spring Shield” (OSS) against the Syrian regime and the pro-Iranian militias supporting it. Despite being unable to rely on its fleet of F-16s due to Russia’s control of the Syrian airspace over Idlib, Turkey managed to successfully wipe out a large portion of Assad’s army in the area within just a couple of days by making innovative use of drones.

    March 26, 2020

    Europe has a vested interest in a safe, secure, and prosperous Black Sea
    Photo by Kayhan Ozer/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Europe has a vested interest in a safe, secure, and prosperous Black Sea

    The European Union’s interest in the Black Sea is based mainly on the fact that two of its members, Romania and Bulgaria, are littoral states. However, the organization is also closely linked with other non-EU Black Sea states, be it economically or politically. Ukraine and Georgia aspire to be EU members while Russia and Turkey both have their own unique and difficult relationships with the EU. 

    March 24, 2020

    How the Democrats can reclaim Syria policy
    American soldiers patrol on the M4 highway in the town of Tal Tamr in the northeastern Syrian Hasakeh province on the border with Turkey on January 24, 2020.
  • Analysis
  • How the Democrats can reclaim Syria policy

    Democrats ought to build a moral firewall around Syria policy, establishing a framework for understanding the Syrian conflict and debating policy options.

    March 18, 2020

    The puzzling outcome of the Moscow Summit
    Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin at a press conference following their meeting at the Moscow Kremlin.
  • Analysis
  • The puzzling outcome of the Moscow Summit

    In changing the balance of power on the ground and forcing hostilities to a stalemate, Turkey’s military intervention in Idlib had produced its desired effect. On March 5, Vladimir Putin and Erdogan sat together for six hours and announced to the world a comprehensive cease-fire and the establishment of a secure corridor spanning six kilometers on the north and south sides of the M4 highway.

    US-Russia standoffs in northeast Syria: Just getting started
    A Russian soldier looks through binoculars on the key M4 highway in Syria's northeastern Hasakeh province on January 20, 2020. (Photo by Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP) (Photo by DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP via Getty Images)
  • Analysis
  • US-Russia standoffs in northeast Syria: Just getting started

    As Syria’s war reaches its ninth anniversary, Russian and U.S. soldiers are increasingly finding themselves face to face — quite literally — in the country’s northeast. A spate of confrontations over the last two months has opened questions about the fate of Syria’s north in the coming year.

    March 16, 2020

    Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?
    Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greet each other during their talks at the Kremlin on March 5, 2020 in Moscow, Russia. Erdogan is having a one day visit to Russia to discuss the war conflcit in Syria.
  • Analysis
  • Is Erdogan misreading Putin on Libya?

    After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hammered out a deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on March 5 to bring an end to the fighting in Idlib in northwestern Syria, he said he was hopeful that the two countries could extend their cooperation to Libya.

    Manufacturing Division: The Assad Regime and Minorities in South-west Syria
    A picture shows the new church of Sayyidet al-Beshara in Shaqra town in the southern Syrian province of Daraa on December 22, 2019. - Less than 10 kilometres (six miles) away lies the mainly Christian town of Shaqra, emptied of most of its Christian residents after a spate of attacks by rebels and jihadists during the conflict. Such attacks have stopped since the area came back under regime control, but very few Christian families remain. (Photo by MAHER AL MOUNES / AFP) (Photo by MAHER AL MOUNES/AFP via Ge
  • Analysis
  • Manufacturing Division: The Assad Regime and Minorities in South-west Syria

    Minority communities in south-west Syria have shrunk to a fraction of their pre-2011 size, and the regime’s repressive policies perpetuate a cycle of violence and chaos that prevents their safe return. The regime’s strategy of transforming minority communities into sources of militia fighters has not only led to the deaths of thousands of young Alawite and Shi’a men, but also created sectarian tensions between formerly interconnected communities in south-west Syria. So long as the regime’s policy in the south-west is characterized by violence, the safe and dignified return of displaced Syrians will not be possible. This paper studies current and former minority communities in south-west Syria, the security and economic challenges these groups face, and the manner by which the regime exploits and weaponizes these vulnerable Syrians.

    March 11, 2020

    Black Sea conflicts: Militarization and peacebuilding
    FEBRUARY 28, 2020: A view of the Monument to the Sunken Ships during a storm on the Black Sea. Sergei Malgavko/TASS (Photo by Sergei MalgavkoTASS via Getty Images)
  • Analysis
  • Black Sea conflicts: Militarization and peacebuilding

    The sheer density of protracted conflicts in the Black Sea region makes it particularly exposed to the geopolitical ambitions of regional and global powers. The rapid militarization in Russia-controlled territories in recent years has only added fuel to the fire, dramatically increasing security concerns and underscoring the need for the West and its allies in the region to address the so-called frozen conflicts.

    March 5, 2020