تضغط الدول الغربية وبعض دول الخليج وتركيا وبدرجة أقل حتى واحدة من مؤيديه الرئيسيين، روسيا، على رئيس الدولة السوري بشار الأسد ليكون أكثر مرونة بشأن قبول تسوية سياسية للصراع السوري. لكن الأسد رفض التزحزح شبرًا واحدًا.
في الوقت الحالي، تريد معظم الدول المعارضة للنظام السوري من الأسد قبول قرار الأمم المتحدة رقم 2254، الصادر في عام 2015، والذي يدعو، من بين أمور أخرى، إلى انتخابات نزيهة ودستور وحكم ذي مصداقية يتسم بالشمول واللاطائفية.
لفهم سبب عدم تراجع الأسد، عليك أن تفكر في الخيارات التي يواجهها.
Western countries, some Gulf states, Turkey, and to a far lesser extent even one of his own key backers, Russia, have been pressuring Syrian head of state Bashar al-Assad to be more flexible about accepting a political settlement to the Syrian conflict. But Assad has refused to budge an inch.
With the Hope Line, Iran aims to boost seawater transfer to fight growing drought
Blessed with milder temperatures than its Gulf neighbors as well as abundant rain and snow fall, Iran is one of the last countries in the region to introduce a seawater transfer plan to fight unprecedented levels of drought. The plan, once fully implemented, could help build water corridors linking the shores of Iran’s southern Gulf to those of its northern Caspian Sea. Named the Hope Transfer Line, the plan promises prosperity for farmers and industrialists, and potable water for communities in some 10,000 villages and urban areas located in so-called Red Zones, a category that applies to regions coping with severe water scarcity.
The policy consequences of Arab state normalization with the Assad regime
The recent push by a number of Arab states to normalize relations with the Assad regime is based on the false premise that the war is over and it is necessary to restore ties to lobby Damascus to change its relationship with Iran. Other regional dynamics are also a factor: The UAE, for example, sees it as a necessary balance against what it perceives as adversarial actions by Turkey with the Syrian jihadist group HTS in Idlib. Yet these rationales for rehabilitating the Assad regime are completely fallacious. The downsides and policy consequences will not only affect Arab states, but will also harm American interests, making it difficult for the U.S. to fully pivot to address the rising threat from China.
The recent round of fighting between Israel and Hamas, and especially the events that preceded it in Jerusalem, were the first significant test of the Arab-Israeli normalization agreements signed in 2020. Saved by Hamas’ intervention, the four normalizing Arab governments were nevertheless forced to address the consequences of their agreement in the face of popular discontent with the situation at home as well as criticism from other Arab and Muslim states over their relative silence. How they respond to the evolving Israeli-Palestinian tension going forward will be critical not only in regard to their own relations with Israel but also in terms of the future path of Arab-Israeli normalization.
“اليوم… اللوحات الإعلانية الضخمة والمكلفة التي تحمل صورة الأسد والموزعة في جميع أنحاء المدن السورية، لا تستخدم كمصدر للدعاية الانتخابية، بل كمكان ظليل يحمي الأطفال المشردين من أشعة الشمس”.
The Growing Alignment Between the Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean
The synergies between the Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean theaters have grown substantially in recent years. Speaking at a meeting in Paphos, Cyprus in mid-April 2021 with his counterparts from Greece and Israel, as well as the former minister of state for foreign affairs of the UAE (now an advisor to the UAE president), the Cypriot foreign minister noted, “The evolving web of regional cooperation is creating a new narrative.” A week later, the UAE and Israeli fighter jets flew together publicly — for the first time — in an international aerial exercise hosted by Greece. How can we explain the signs of growing cooperation between these actors that seemingly operate in close but not completely overlapping arenas?
The 5G divide in the Middle East: Further disparity between the Gulf and its neighbors
The 5G technology revolution is poised to change society irreversibly in the Middle East. The evolution of the Internet of Things (IoT) powered by 5G networks could prove life-enhancing. Already, the Gulf countries have led the way in adopting 5G technology in the region and the rollout of 5G showcases the Gulf’s new role as a leader in digital technology. Although the Gulf countries have made strides to be global tech leaders, their neighbors in the region seriously lag behind in their abilities to adopt large-scale 5G technology. This disparity will further deepen the divides in development between the Gulf and the rest of MENA. Looking to the future, the Gulf will surely pull ahead as the tech hub of the region, but there are still important benefits for the rest of the region to reap as they slowly adopt next generation technology.
Eye on Niamey: Middle East regional powers vie for influence in Niger
Due to its relatively stable political institutions, geographic proximity to Libya, and UNSC seat, regional powers in the Middle East are competing for influence in Niger. Egypt and the UAE are trying to counter Turkey’s growing economic and security cooperation with Niger, Saudi Arabia and Iran wish to leverage its UNSC voting power, and Israel is testing the waters for a potential normalization of diplomatic relations. These rivalries are poised to intensify, as the Sahel’s geostrategic significance continues to expand.
A successful US strategy in Syria must focus on hearts and minds of Syrian youth
Assad’s current geopolitical challenges present the U.S. with an important opportunity to address a growing national security threat. By taking steps today to ensure that areas currently outside of Assad’s control remain protected from both the Syrian regime and other external actors seeking to further destabilize the country amid the chaos, the U.S can protect itself and the West from an uncertain tomorrow and stand up for Syrian refugees in the process.
Is Russia prepared for an open-ended conflict in Syria?
Russia’s key foreign policy dilemma is the tension between its aspirations of retaining its Soviet-era geopolitical clout and its lack of ideological and economic tools to achieve that goal. From a strategic standpoint, Russia’s campaign in Syria seems like an open-ended story that bears some resemblance to the situation in Ukraine. These similarities in Russia’s methods are not accidental. The Kremlin lacks the ability to impose its foreign policy blueprint on the West and can only leverage its power to stir up trouble in unstable regions.
On the margins of Vienna’s nuclear talks, Riyadh and Tehran have opened their own conversation in Baghdad. Despite predictions of a potential grand bargain, Saudi and Iranian identity security will confine the results to a mere cooling of relations, at best.
Since the normalization of UAE-Israel relations was first announced, much of the international commentary only focused on the deal’s political and diplomatic significance. However, the deal will create a new digital order in the Middle East, one in which Israel and the UAE will partner more closely than ever in developing emerging technologies and cyber capabilities. This cooperation will be at the forefront of this UAE-Israel tech order.
How Facebook’s Oversight Board Can Do More for Syria
Around the world, there is ongoing debate over the extent to which speech should be regulated for the common good. Facebook has been a key battleground in this debate. Indeed, since nearly its founding day, the company has struggled with the degree to which it bears responsibility for the content that its users post on the platform, including but not limited to, the glorification of violence, incitement to terrorism, and false and misleading political content. In 2020, the company officially launched the Facebook Oversight Board, a trust-based body composed of 40 members and tasked with passing final, binding rulings upon Facebook’s content moderation decisions.
