Research & Commentary Results

As the Trump administration pushes to expand the Abraham Accords in the Middle East and into the Caucasus and Central Asia, it overlooks a dramatic shift in perception across the Arab and Muslim world. Where once Israel might have been viewed as David battling a Goliath-like Arab world, today the roles appear reversed. Israel, empowered by unchecked military might and unwavering US support, is increasingly seen not just as a regional power but as a US-backed regional hegemon. For Gulf Arab states, this transformation presents a dilemma: Can a Goliath be a partner in peace?

The Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, shattered Israel’s long-standing security paradigm, replacing limited deterrence with an ambitious campaign aimed at dismantling Hamas, confronting Hizballah and other Iranian proxies, and directly targeting Iran’s nuclear program with the support of the United States. In stark contrast, Saudi Arabia has prioritized regional stability and de-escalation, restoring relations with Iran, and focusing on its Vision 2030 economic transformation.

The monarchical Arab Gulf states emerged on the other side of last June’s Israeli and US attacks on Iran largely unscathed, with the important exception of a limited, retaliatory Iranian missile strike on the American airbase in Qatar. However, in a larger sense, this short war, part of the broader regional conflict that began with the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023, reinforced the precariousness of the Gulf monarchies’ security situation.

The unresolved crises unfolding on the Israeli-Palestinian front — a growing humanitarian disaster inside of Gaza, the horrific images of emaciated Israelis held hostage by terrorists in the coastal strip, and ongoing tensions in Jerusalem and the West Bank fueled by religious extremists of all stripes — represent one of the biggest strategic challenges to stability facing the Middle East. With Israel now openly contemplating a full occupation of Gaza, this set of issues serves as an obstacle to broader regional peace and normalization efforts.

During June’s Israel-Iran war, a quieter but significant battle played out in cyberspace, highlighting how Tehran has refined its use of digital tools to shape the battlespace, control domestic narratives, and project influence abroad. While largely ineffective in operational terms, Iran’s cyber response marked a new phase in its strategic evolution.

President Masoud Pezeshkian’s first year in office has been defined by Iran’s familiar political structural constraints, external crises, and a moderate-reformist base forever frustrated with his cautious pragmatism and unfulfilled promises. His July 2024 election was undeniably a setback for hardliners. Yet one year later, the assessment is sobering: While Pezeshkian has in some ways perhaps helped in slowing the hardline march, he has not made any fundamental difference in how the Islamic Republic is run. Every decision requires second-guessing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s next move, and even as a president boxed in by the system with limited powers, he is constantly under the sword of Damocles.

With the dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza in the global spotlight, Egypt faces mounting pressure both at home and abroad. In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj speak with MEI Senior Fellow Mirette Mabrouk about how Cairo is handling the crisis in the neighboring coastal strip. What are the Egyptian government’s main concerns as conditions there continue to deteriorate? How is Egypt responding to domestic outrage and changing international dynamics?

After almost two years of fighting in Gaza, and after the decimation of Hizballah, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, and the 12-day Israeli-American war on Iran, the Middle East is in new strategic and political territory. Two pathways lie ahead: the first is one in which the gains and changes brought about by war are turned, through intense diplomacy and negotiation, into new international and political arrangements that bring about a period of security and stability in the region; the second is one in which that corner is not turned, and the wars in Gaza, Iran, and potentially Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, continue indefinitely. The trajectory will depend on the choices of key actors — above all Iran, Israel, and the United States.

Probably few if any Middle East analysts had Israeli airstrikes targeting key government installations of the Syrian state on their summer 2025 bingo cards. And yet that is precisely what happened on Wednesday, as Israeli jets hit Syria’s military headquarters and an area near the presidential palace in Damascus.

As the Trump administration marks six months in office, it is pursuing a flurry of diplomatic initiatives across the Middle East — some publicly coordinated, others shaped behind closed doors. MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Mara Rudman joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to assess the administration’s broader regional strategy and its handling of key issues.

Last June’s Israel-Iran conflict became a revealing stress test for Beijing’s Middle East strategy, its role in global diplomacy, and the coherence of what some have described as an emergent “Axis of Upheaval” between China, Russia, and Iran.

US President Donald Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the third time in his second term this week, shortly after securing a major victory for his domestic policy agenda in the budget bill passed by Congress.

When the Israel-Iran war broke out and the United States decided to assist the Israeli side by striking Iran’s nuclear program, both Tehran and Washington expected Islamabad to side with their respective positions. This situation placed the Pakistani government in a politically sensitive and diplomatically delicate position.

Dr. Yoel Guzansky, associate fellow at MEI and senior research fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to unpack the military and political implications of Israel’s 12-day war with Iran. In the lead-up to next week’s closely watched visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House, they discuss Israel’s strategic gains and domestic reaction, the evolving US-Israel relationship, and the war’s ripple effects across Gaza, the Gulf, and beyond.

Domestic politics has taken center stage in the United States as Congress struggles to pass President Donald Trump’s proposed budget plan. But July is also shaping up as a pivotal month for Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East and beyond.