Research & Commentary Results

The reverberations of Israel’s strike on the Hamas negotiating team in Doha yesterday are still rippling across the globe and will continue to for the foreseeable future. Its ramifications are profound and will alter the geopolitical landscape not just in the Middle East but likely on a global scale.

With its new government at the half-year mark and the UNIFIL international peacekeeping force’s mandate due for reauthorization at month’s end, Lebanon stands at a pivotal moment. In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Fadi Nicholas Nassar to evaluate whether the Lebanese state can reclaim its sovereignty, starting with the disarmament of Hizballah and the enforcement of a cease-fire.

The Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, shattered Israel’s long-standing security paradigm, replacing limited deterrence with an ambitious campaign aimed at dismantling Hamas, confronting Hizballah and other Iranian proxies, and directly targeting Iran’s nuclear program with the support of the United States. In stark contrast, Saudi Arabia has prioritized regional stability and de-escalation, restoring relations with Iran, and focusing on its Vision 2030 economic transformation.

As the Western Sahara conflict reaches its fifth decade, the territorial dispute remains unresolved and largely unknown. MEI’s Intissar Fakir unpacks the Western Sahara’s complex history and the rival claims by Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. She examines recent developments, such as President Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory and the collapse of a 30-year cease-fire, as well as the core questions that remain unanswered after half a century.

The unresolved crises unfolding on the Israeli-Palestinian front — a growing humanitarian disaster inside of Gaza, the horrific images of emaciated Israelis held hostage by terrorists in the coastal strip, and ongoing tensions in Jerusalem and the West Bank fueled by religious extremists of all stripes — represent one of the biggest strategic challenges to stability facing the Middle East. With Israel now openly contemplating a full occupation of Gaza, this set of issues serves as an obstacle to broader regional peace and normalization efforts.

During June’s Israel-Iran war, a quieter but significant battle played out in cyberspace, highlighting how Tehran has refined its use of digital tools to shape the battlespace, control domestic narratives, and project influence abroad. While largely ineffective in operational terms, Iran’s cyber response marked a new phase in its strategic evolution.

President Masoud Pezeshkian’s first year in office has been defined by Iran’s familiar political structural constraints, external crises, and a moderate-reformist base forever frustrated with his cautious pragmatism and unfulfilled promises. His July 2024 election was undeniably a setback for hardliners. Yet one year later, the assessment is sobering: While Pezeshkian has in some ways perhaps helped in slowing the hardline march, he has not made any fundamental difference in how the Islamic Republic is run. Every decision requires second-guessing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s next move, and even as a president boxed in by the system with limited powers, he is constantly under the sword of Damocles.

As the dog days of August approach, we are pleased to share a curated summer reading list featuring some of VP for Policy Ken Pollack’s favorite books on the region. Covering a variety of timely and engaging topics, the list offers recommendations for anyone interested in deepening their understanding of the Middle East.

After almost two years of fighting in Gaza, and after the decimation of Hizballah, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, and the 12-day Israeli-American war on Iran, the Middle East is in new strategic and political territory. Two pathways lie ahead: the first is one in which the gains and changes brought about by war are turned, through intense diplomacy and negotiation, into new international and political arrangements that bring about a period of security and stability in the region; the second is one in which that corner is not turned, and the wars in Gaza, Iran, and potentially Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, continue indefinitely. The trajectory will depend on the choices of key actors — above all Iran, Israel, and the United States.

Probably few if any Middle East analysts had Israeli airstrikes targeting key government installations of the Syrian state on their summer 2025 bingo cards. And yet that is precisely what happened on Wednesday, as Israeli jets hit Syria’s military headquarters and an area near the presidential palace in Damascus.

US President Donald Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the third time in his second term this week, shortly after securing a major victory for his domestic policy agenda in the budget bill passed by Congress.

When the Israel-Iran war broke out and the United States decided to assist the Israeli side by striking Iran’s nuclear program, both Tehran and Washington expected Islamabad to side with their respective positions. This situation placed the Pakistani government in a politically sensitive and diplomatically delicate position.

Domestic politics has taken center stage in the United States as Congress struggles to pass President Donald Trump’s proposed budget plan. But July is also shaping up as a pivotal month for Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East and beyond.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia share many foreign policy and regional security objectives and have a long and complicated relationship. Recent events in the Middle East have strengthened that relationship, even as they continue to negotiate difficult bilateral issues, like the long-running dispute over control of the islands of Tiran and Sanafir.

Six months since the collapse of the Assad regime, the Russian military presence in Syria has remained entrenched in strategic locations such as the Hmeimim airbase and Tartous port on the coast, as well as at Qamishli airport in the northeast. This persistence has reignited an increasingly pressing debate about Moscow’s role in the new Syria.