Research & Commentary Results

Since 2011 Libya’s seemingly endless Wars of Post-Gadhafi Succession have not fundamentally been fought over the control of territory, but rather over the control of economic institutions, patronage networks, and the amorphous optics of legitimacy and international support. The most recent battle, the 2019-20 “War for Tripoli,” was about gaining access to the fonts of both legitimate and corrupt enrichment: letters of credit, smuggling networks, subsidized petrol, and control of those myriad institutions to which Libya’s sui generis economic system grants the ability to exert de facto fiscal, financial, and legal power. Therefore, although Hifter and his allies have been wholesale evicted from western Libya, the grievances they highlighted, preyed upon, and took advantage of remain unchanged.

Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) took a different path than the rest of the financial world. As markets around the globe plunged, the TSE soared to new heights. There has been a recent reversal, however, with the index falling sharply from its peak in early August and losing around 20 percent of its value over the course of a month. The story of the TSE is about the extreme measures a desperate government is willing to take to make ends meet. 

Ukraine’s long-term stability will depend on its economic prosperity. As a transitioning economy, trade and investment are welcome and needed whether from the U.S., Europe, or China. Ukraine finds itself walking a thinning tightrope between the U.S. and China as their relationship turns increasingly adversarial. If Washington wants to keep Chinese activity in this economy to a minimum, the present and future administrations must more rapidly and directly coordinate American trade and investment in Ukraine.

On August 22, Turkey announced the discovery of Tuna-1. Though questions remain as to whether it is economically viable to start production – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has suggested this could happen as early as 2023 – the news could not go unnoticed in other littoral countries of the Black Sea. The discovery may well help spur regional cooperation.

I have the good fortune of living in the Baltics and working in the Black Sea region. Compared to the positive NATO effort in the Baltics, the Black Sea region as an operational space is a dangerous conceptual mess for both NATO and the EU. A lack of clarity of purpose confuses countries in the region that really need support in their fight against Russian interference.

In a new briefing book released ahead of the U.S. elections in November, entitled Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East, MEI scholars lay out key issues across the region, highlight the U.S. interests at stake, and provide policy insights and recommendations for the path forward. 

Countries in the Horn of Africa can draw lessons from the Taiwanese because they are themselves attempting to make the same political transition Taiwan did, but have not yet achieved the needed reforms such as ensuring good governance, eradicating corruption, and developing economic self-reliance to reduce dependency on aid. Taiwan may not have the financial resources to win against the PRC’s checkbook-driven One-China policy in Africa, but it could overcome that disadvantage by convincing African nations that it can help them replicate the sustainable growth model of the “Taiwan Economic Miracle.” Taiwan’s recent diplomatic overtures in Somaliland seem like a step in that direction and could be a game-changer, not only for the Horn of Africa but for the continent as a whole.

Following the devastating explosion that rocked Beirut on Aug. 4, one of the first foreign state dignitaries to visit Lebanon to pledge support was Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay. Oktay said that not only would Turkey help to rebuild the damaged port and the surrounding buildings, but it could also provide temporary support in the form of linking Turkey’s largest Mediterranean port, Mersin International Port, with the Port of Beirut.

The United States and its many partners in the “liberal international order” must remember the principles that brought them such success, while assessing how to promulgate them in a changing and increasingly threatening world. Indeed, the biggest threat to our present peace, prosperity, and political liberty is the Leftist assault on the legitimacy of liberalism itself, matched by the Right’s retreat into blood-and-soil nationalism.

In recent years, the Black Sea has featured high on the radar for US companies looking for alternative locations to do business – in part due to Black Sea countries’ success in creating a favorable business climate and offering flexibility as an adaptable production base. This trend has been exacerbated by global developments such as the US-China trade war and most notably, COVID-19.

The explosion at the Port of Beirut on Aug. 4 has resulted in a further escalation of the political and economic crisis in Lebanon. Its repercussions can already be deeply felt in neighboring Syria and are expected to take an even greater toll on the country given its complex links to Lebanon. This crisis is feeding into Syria through multiple channels and has severe implications for its ability to import goods and, ultimately, its food security.

Mehmet Öğütçü and Gonul Tol join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the recent announcement of Turkey’s biggest-ever natural gas discovery—the Sakarya field in the Black Sea—and what it might mean for Turkey’s economy, domestic politics, and foreign policy.

The Jordanian government implemented one of the most comprehensive and effective COVID-19 responses in the region. While the government’s stringent measures did prompt some public discontent, the population largely accepted them. The government’s rapid and broad initial response was successful in thwarting a major public health crisis. Nevertheless, the kingdom has not been able to forestall the damaging economic consequences of COVID-19, which are bound to linger for years to come.

Reports emerged this week that President Bashar al-Assad traveled on Sunday to his ancestral hometown and Alawi stronghold of Qardaha for a meeting with members of the powerful Makhlouf family.

Oman’s independent and creative foreign policy has been a boost to a region fraught with instability, but the combination of a new sultan and an adverse regional environment means Muscat’s trademark foreign policy may be diminished.