Research & Commentary Results

This calendar lists key dates in the MENA region in 2021, broken down by month. It is subject to change and will be updated over the course of the year.

The mixed messages and pendulum swings in U.S. Gulf policy in recent years are rooted in and have further fueled deep questioning and a largely unresolved debate within the United States about America’s role in the region, and indeed in the world. Like the U.S., relations between the GCC and Iran are locked in confrontation. Breaking this impasse requires decisive U.S. reengagement in Gulf affairs led by vigorous, sustained diplomacy that promotes intra-GCC reconciliation and supports efforts aimed at tempering the Saudi-Iran strategic rivalry.

The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the most important figure in Iran’s nuclear program, in late November 2020 is a major failure for Iran’s intelligence services. Despite all the secrecy and the emphasis on protecting Fakhrizadeh, however, he was still assassinated in the Absard area, about 70 km from Tehran, on Nov. 27. Why was he killed despite such a high level of protection, and what effect will his death have on the Iranian regime’s intelligence and security structures?

In our final episode of the year, host Alistair Taylor interviews several MEI scholars on the key events that transpired across the Middle East in 2020 including in Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan, and they discuss US defense and diplomatic strategy in region as the as the transition to the Biden administration gets underway. Guests include Paul Salem, Bilal Saab, Randa Slim, and Marvin Weinbaum.

On Dec. 3, MEI’s Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs convened a webinar on the future of Palestinian refugees and their place in the policy discourse following the election of President-elect Joe Biden and the departure of the Trump administration. Below is a summary of the major takeaways from the event, organized by topic.

When looking at a map of all artillery and airstrikes in the period from November 2019 through November 2020, first, it is quite clear that the majority of attack are carried out by either Syrian, Russia, or pro-government forces across the northwest of the country, save for northern Aleppo, where the Turkish military is more active.

A look back at the year’s most important developments with analysis from Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Gerald Feierstein, Gonul Tol, Jonathan M. Winer, Khaled Elgindy, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Grace Wermenbol, Syed Mohammad Ali, Robert S. Ford, and Khaldoun Khelil.

Iran’s internet shutdown last year was an exercise of its digital power that had been years in the making. Since 2013, the Iranian government has invested heavily in developing its domestic internet known as the National Information Network (NIN). With critical internet infrastructure under its control, the Iranian government can isolate its citizens from the global internet by filtering content, restricting communications, and controlling which platforms they can use.

Under U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254, a critical step toward a political solution to the Syrian crisis is the drafting of a new Syrian constitution. To that end, the Constitutional Committee in Geneva has conducted three rounds of discussions, with little to show for it. One of the key components of the new constitution is the decentralization of power. The issue is hard for Syrians to approach objectively, however, because — depending on their class, ethnicity, and religion — they have been impacted by the highly centralized system of governance in vastly different ways. In order to understand the different views of Syrians on the issue of decentralization in a new constitution, The Day After (TDA), a Syrian organization that works toward empowering civil society, democratic transition, and justice in Syria, conducted a survey of 2,966 persons between June and July 2020, including Syrians within the country as well as in the diaspora. In general, support for a decentralized political system is on the rise. Compared to a survey conducted by TDA two years earlier, there was an increase of over 20 percentage points among all respondents for a decentralized system in Syria.

The Persian Gulf states are among the most vulnerable on earth to the effects of climate change, which makes environmental cooperation necessary for their survival. Located in one of the hottest and driest parts of the planet, the region is vulnerable to extreme heat waves, dust storms, and water scarcity. All of these will increase in frequency and severity with further climate change. Protecting the natural environment of the region is not just an ecological concern, but a security one as well. Unmitagated climate change could spur conflict over limited resources and produce waves of migrants. While the future may seem bleak, environmental cooperation also presents a unique opportunity for improving the relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Iran. Successes from cooperation on essential environmental issues could be the start of a more general rapprochement.

the reality of life for religious minorities in the Islamic Republic of Iran has proven very different, as many Iranians will attest, regardless of their political or religious viewpoints. One recent illustration is the 80 lashes given to two Christian converts in the past two months for drinking wine as part of Holy Communion. One of these converts is currently serving a six-year prison sentence; the other is in internal exile, having already spent two years in prison. The charge against them? “Acting against national security by establishing house-churches and promoting ‘Zionist’ Christianity.” In the regime’s eyes, these converts, and all others like them — a recent survey suggests there may be as many as 1 million — are no Christians. They are erring Muslims. So any punishment is justified.And in spite of what regime figures like to say about the “tolerance” of the Islamic Republic, from the early days of the revolution — as soon as they were firmly in power — the ayatollahs began a crackdown on civil and religious liberties.

From Israel/Palestine and Lebanon to Iran and Afghanistan, there are a number of areas where the Trump administration may make policy moves before leaving office on Jan. 20. Experts from across MEI weigh in with their thoughts on what to watch out for over the next seven weeks.

It’s difficult to look at the Middle East and consider its future optimistically. Much of the analysis of the region centers on crisis and collapse. There is plenty of both, fueled by wars and civil conflicts, poverty, extremism, and more. Given the human toll, focusing on all this is natural. It is also necessary if solutions to deeply rooted problems are ever to be developed, leading to a better future.A related risk is becoming blinded to “weak signals” — early indicators of what could become features of potential alternative futures. Weak signals are developments that are emerging outside the dominant norms and trends of today. In the Middle East, probably the most dominant norm is the inability of governments throughout the region to provide security and prosperity for their citizens. The COVID-19 pandemic is making this even more apparent, and markedly worse. It is not just the obvious failed states — as Steven Cook recently observed, “sometimes state failure is a more chronic condition.” But in the midst of this — and fueled by it — there is evidence of activities at the local level to create what is missing. Could these be signals of a future different than the one it is so easy to expect for the region?