Research & Commentary Results

The Syrian Republican Guard (RG) has served as the backbone of the regime’s fighting forces since protests first broke out across the country in 2011.This report uses publicly available Facebook posts to piece together the history of the five regiments, six brigades, and 46 battalions identified as now belonging to the RG. Featuring an order of battle, command structure, and battalion commander profiles, this report stands as the most comprehensive record of the RG to date.

While OPEC and Russia-led non-OPEC members agreed to cut oil production last week by 1.2 million bpd, Riyadh’s ability to control the cartel and global oil prices is waning.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the coming changes in Trump’s administration, Iran’s hesitation in the US-China battle over Huawei , the ongoing Sweden talks on Yemen, results of the latest GCC summit, and questions over the legitimacy of the Afghan elections.

As the Syrian government begins to shift its focus to postwar governance, it faces unexpected new challenges and growing criticism from citizens voicing their frustration through social media and other channels.

“De-escalation” zones have been a key part of Russia’s policy in Syria over the past 18 months, but the situation in Idlib, the fourth and final zone, has proven a much greater challenge than the others.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including Russian air strikes in Aleppo, the elections in Bahrain, the growing international interest in Egypt’s offshore energy finds, and the appointment of a new Afghan team of negotiators for peace talks.

The reopening of the Naseeb-Jaber border crossing offers an opportunity to address the pressing political, economic, and humanitarian challenges confronting Jordan.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the Iraq-Kurdistan pipeline deal, how the YPG partnership affects US-Turkey ties, and the new Russia-Turkey gas pipeline.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the Gaza flare-up and its threat to Egyptian-led negotiations, Russian-hosted Afghan peace talks, the ground offensive in Hodeidah, and rapid escalation in northwestern Syria.

Now that armed conflict has ended in most provinces, the war is no longer an excuse for Syria’s growing wealth divide, and discontent is on the rise in government-controlled areas.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the ongoing conflict in Yemen, the potential impact of the midterm elections on US Middle East policy, U.S.-Turkey rapprochement, escalating tensions in northern Syria, the upcoming Palermo conference on Libya, and the potential for political fallout in Pakistan and peace talks in Afghanistan.

The Tiger Forces is a Syrian Air Intelligence-affiliated militia fighting for the Syrian government and backed by Russia. While often described as the Syrian government’s elite fighting force, this research portrays a starkly different picture. The Tiger Forces are the largest single fighting force on the Syrian battlefield, with approximately 24 groups comprised of some 4,000 offensive infantry units as well as a dedicated artillery regiment and armor unit of unknown size. Beyond these fighters are thousands of additional so-called flex units, affiliated militiamen who remain largely garrisoned in their hometowns along the north Hama and Homs borders until called on to join offensives as needed.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Charles Lister provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iran’s decision to sell its oil in the private sector, the prime minister of Pakistan’s search for foreign aid, and the Syrian summit in Istanbul.

A close look at the competing claims, actors, and movements for authority within the Syrian civil war reveals three distinct periods of political and religious influence: that of Syrian scholars, who were the first to inject religious language into the revolution; that of Salafi scholars predominantly from the Gulf; and lastly, that of jihadi organizations like ISIS and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, who were active on the ground.

The most recent EU summit, in June 2018, only proved that the EU’s member states do not share any common long-term perspective on migration from Middle East to Europe. This lack of cohesion, as well as a lack of substantial cooperation with the U.S., are the best recipe for a humanitarian disaster in 2019.