Research & Commentary Results

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Randa Slim, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the vulnerabilities in Trump’s Middle East policy, Russia’s plan in Syria after Trump’s election, and Erdogan’s hopes for Gulen’s extradition under the next administration.

In this special edition of our weekly briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Robert S. Ford, Eran Etzion, Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on the impact of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. Presidential Election on the future of Middle East policy, its particular effect on the crises in Iraq and Syria, and how the news has been received across the region, including in Turkey, Iran, and the GCC.

This paper is part of a MEI scholar series titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections.”

Summary

Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.

Tensions between Turkey and Russia are thawing, as both countries appear to be advancing reconciliation efforts. Beginning with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s apology to Russian President Vladimir Putin for downing a Russian jet last year, the nations have shown a political will to cultivate closer cooperation in Syria. But the question remains—how far can the rapprochement in Syria go?

The State Department has welcomed an agreement among all Yemeni parties and the Saudi-led coalition to observe a 72-hour cease-fire beginning on October 19. The warring factions agreed to “implement a full and comprehensive halt to military activities of any kind and help facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Yemenis across the country.”[i]

This article was originally published by The Ambassadors Review and the Council of American Ambasadors (CAA) and can be found here.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Gonul Tol, Charles Lister, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including potential fallout from the battle for Mosul, how the row between Turkey and Iraq will complicate the operations in Mosul, the implications of ISIS’ loss of Dabiq, and recent military cooperation between Egypt and Russia.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has expressed outrage at the recent Turkish parliamentary extension of the mandate of Turkey’s military presence on Iraqi soil. For months, Turkish forces have maintained a contingent in northern Iraq, ostensibly at the invitation of local forces, with the announced mission of training them in preparation for the battle for Mosul. With multiple parties preparing for the offensive, Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, is slated to be liberated from a 30-month-old Islamic State (ISIS) occupation.

The parties to the intractable Yemen war appear further entrenched in their enmity than ever before, despite U.S. and British efforts to push Yemeni leaders toward new negotiations.

In this Weekly Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Gonul Tol, and Ruba Husari provide analysis on issues including the UNSC’s inability to administer diplomatic solutions in Syria, the rebuilding of diplomatic ties between Russia and Turkey, and OPEC’s ongoing consideration of how to control member state oil production.

Diplomatic Dead-End on Syria
Robert S. Ford, Senior Fellow

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ruba Husari, Charles Lister, and Charles Schmitz provide analysis on events including OPEC’s upcoming meeting to discuss production rates and a potentil freeze, Russia’s bombardment of Aleppo following the collapse of the latest cease-fire, and the worsening humanitarian disaster in Yemen.

OPEC to Mull Oil Freeze
Ruba Husari, MEI Scholar

This article was first published on RealClear World

September 14, 2016 – Charles Schmitz, MEI scholar and professor of geography at Towson University, sits with Paul Salem to discuss the state of play in Yemen, where more than a year of war has led to thousands of civilian casualties and compounded a long-standing humanitarian crisis.

The omission of unregistered and informal organizations/groups means that the research and analysis of civil society to date has excluded a whole area of civil society organizations (CSOs). This essay discusses the findings from structured interviews with a small cohort of (mostly Kurdish) unregistered women’s organizations in Turkey regarding their sources of funding and their engagement with the political system.