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Why Erdogan can't afford to back down over conflict with Assad and Russia
 A displaced Syrian girl carries a bag of bread in a stadium which has been turned into a makeshift refugee shelter on February 19, 2020 in Idlib, Syria.
  • Analysis
  • Why Erdogan can't afford to back down over conflict with Assad and Russia

    Nearly a million civilians, 81 percent of them women and children, have been displaced from their homes in 90 days in Syria’s northwestern province of Idlib, amid a brutal military campaign by Syria’s Assad regime, Russia and Iran-backed militias.

    Turkey’s eastern Mediterranean quagmire
    A picture taken at the port of Dilovasi, outside Istanbul, on June 20, 2019 shows the drilling ship 'Yavuz' scheduled to search for oil and gas off Cyprus, next to a warship.
  • Analysis
  • Turkey’s eastern Mediterranean quagmire

    The eastern Mediterranean has become an increasingly important focus for Turkey’s foreign and security policy, but the interlocking of new issues like energy politics and sovereignty rights with old problems like Cyprus has created significant challenges for Ankara.

    February 18, 2020

    Turkey faces potential Russian blowback on Syria — and tomatoes are only the beginning
     A Turkish military convoy of tanks and armoured vehicles passes through the city of Idlib, in northwestern Syria, near the Syria-Turkey border, late on February 7, 2020.
  • Analysis
  • Turkey faces potential Russian blowback on Syria — and tomatoes are only the beginning

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finds himself in a tough spot with Russia as tensions in Syria have escalated dramatically. In a rare direct military confrontation between Turkish and Syrian regime forces, 14 Turkish soldiers and over 100 regime troops were killed in two separate clashes in Idlib over the past 10 days.

    As Iran heads to the polls, could Rouhani be facing impeachment?
    Iran's President Hassan Rouhani delivers a speech presenting the Islamic republic's new budget for the financial year starting late March 2020 in Tehran on December 8, 2019. - Rouhani described it as a
  • Analysis
  • As Iran heads to the polls, could Rouhani be facing impeachment?

    On Feb. 21, Iranians will be voting to elect a new Majlis, the country’s unicameral Parliament. Viewed from the outside, participating in the electoral system might seem futile. While the Iranian constitution recognizes popular will, as represented by an elected president and Parliament, the whole political system operates under the supreme leader, who, although appointed by an elected clerical body (the Assembly of Experts), is, in effect, answerable to no one. The Majlis does, however, have the power to remove the president — a fate that could potentially await President Hassan Rouhani if the conservatives win a majority in the upcoming elections.

    February 11, 2020

    China plays the long game on Syria
    BEIJING, Nov. 22, 2019 -- Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan meets with a delegation of Syria's Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party, led by Helal Helal, deputy general secretary of the ruling party, in Beijing, capital of China, Nov. 22, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • China plays the long game on Syria

    Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, many analysts have examined the role played by a handful of key outside actors, such as Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Yet China has received comparatively little attention in most discussions about the Syrian crisis. A deeper look at Sino-Syrian relations and Beijing’s policies vis-à-vis Syria is long overdue as this bilateral relationship is set to become increasingly important to both China’s ambitious foreign policy as well as the Syrian government’s vision for reconstruction and redevelopment.

    February 10, 2020

    A moment of truth in Idlib
    Photo by Ibrahim Dervis/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • A moment of truth in Idlib

    Relentless airstrikes and shelling have killed over 5,000 and displaced more than half a million people.

    February 10, 2020

    The Black Sea should be a US and NATO priority
    Bulgarian and NATO navi ships take part during Bulgarian-NATO military navy exercise in the Black sea, east of the Bulgarian capital Sofia, Friday, July, 10, 2015.
  • Analysis
  • The Black Sea should be a US and NATO priority

    The Black Sea is a very important region for NATO, and has not received the attention it deserves; a separate focused NATO strategy and support for countries in the Black Sea would send a message that the Alliance takes the region seriously.

    February 6, 2020

    Trump’s Curious Multilateralism
  • Analysis
  • Trump’s Curious Multilateralism

    His administration may end up besting its predecessors’ records in bringing partners together in the Persian Gulf.

    February 4, 2020

    Idlib tests Turkey-Russia ties
    A Turkish military convoy of tanks and armoured vehicles passes through the Syrian town of Dana, east of the Turkish-Syrian border in the northwestern Syrian Idlib province, on February 2, 2020.
  • Commentary
  • Idlib tests Turkey-Russia ties

    The escalating tensions between Turkey and Russia over Idlib did not come as a surprise to many outside the Turkish capital.

    In Syria, we’re getting counter-terrorism all wrong
    Syrian families, who have been forced to displace due to the ongoing attacks carried out by Assad regime and Russia, are seen on their way to safer zones with their belongings, at Atme camps in Idlib, Syria on January 19, 2020.
  • Analysis
  • In Syria, we’re getting counter-terrorism all wrong

    While proclamations of ISIS’s defeat were certainly premature, international policy and attention on countering terrorism in Syria has since declined — as if to suggest that the job is done. In fact, as 2020 sets in, the world seems to be getting counter-terrorism all wrong in Syria, in three interlinked ways.