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Libya’s descent into civil war
A fighter of Libya's UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) of Fayez Serraj, fires his rifle during clashes with forces of the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar, at Al-Khalla frontline.
  • Commentary
  • Libya’s descent into civil war

    The question as 2019 ends is whether foreign forces supporting the conflict will rethink their commitment to military victory and instead work to secure political solutions through compromise.

    The Gulf looks over the cliff and retreats
     Saudi Arabian King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud chairs the 40th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) annual summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on December 10, 2019.
  • Commentary
  • The Gulf looks over the cliff and retreats

    The steps the Saudis have taken in 2019 may help to ease international pressure on the kingdom’s leadership and restore its image as a constructive player in the world.

    December 16, 2019

    Turkey doubles down on Libya
    President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) meets chairman of the Presidential Council of Libya, Fayez Al-Sarraj (L) at Dolmabahce Office in Istanbul, Turkey on November 27, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • Turkey doubles down on Libya

    On Nov. 27 the GNA signed an MoU with Turkey seeking to create a shared maritime boundary in the Mediterranean Sea between southwestern Turkey and northeastern Libya. In an overt quid pro quo, this maritime agreement was signed along with a separate MoU to expand security and military cooperation. Thus, it seems clear that Turkey was only able to persuade the GNA to agree to the maritime deal in exchange for increased security support for the GNA-aligned forces fighting the self-styled LNA in Tripoli.

    December 10, 2019

    Upgrading Iran’s Military Doctrine: An Offensive “Forward Defense”
    (Photo by Pool / Press Office of Iranian Supreme Leader/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
  • Analysis
  • Upgrading Iran’s Military Doctrine: An Offensive “Forward Defense”

    Since the 2011 “Arab Spring” uprisings, there have been several indications that Iran is shifting to an offensive military doctrine through the adoption of hybrid warfare. This essay will demonstrate that Iran’s “forward defense” doctrine emphasis on the offensive is influenced not simply by the “window of opportunity” created by regional upheaval but by a dispute about the domestic politics of the Islamic Republic between the radical Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and the reform camp within the regime currently represented by President Hassan Rouhani. This development represents a marked setback for the “civilianization” of the Iranian state.

    December 10, 2019

    Blockchain adoption in the Gulf states
  • Analysis
  • Blockchain adoption in the Gulf states

    The subject of extensive international interest and attention over the past few years, blockchain technology is regarded as a key component of the fourth industrial revolution. This article seeks to shed light on the use of blockchain technology in the Gulf states by analyzing current trends of blockchain adoption in the region compared to those internationally. In so doing, it will determine Gulf institutions’ capacity for keeping pace with the changes and developments blockchain adoption has introduced.

    December 10, 2019

    An Israel-US defense treaty will ruin relations with Arab states
    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) shakes the hand of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo following their meeting in Jerusalem on October 18, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • An Israel-US defense treaty will ruin relations with Arab states

    Attempts by the indicted Israeli leader to railroad through a joint U.S.-Israel defense treaty in opposition to the Palestinians and other Arabs will be disastrous for America’s national interest.

    December 9, 2019

    Pakistan’s Gen. Bajwa gets an extension amid political drama
    Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa arrives to attend the Pakistan Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • Pakistan’s Gen. Bajwa gets an extension amid political drama

    Understanding a state and its society involves understanding how the state treats its military, its record of governance, and the relationship between the military and civilian politicians. By all accounts, Pakistan, a state founded in 1947 as a homeland for the Muslim population of British India, is a unique case where the military dominates all other institutions in both state and society. This was on clear display in the recent court battle over the extension of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa’s tenure.

    December 6, 2019

    Gen. Votel on US Policy in Afghanistan
    Middle East Institute
  • Video
  • Gen. Votel on US Policy in Afghanistan

    Gen. (Ret.) Joseph Votel discusses the role of Afghanistan in US regional strategic interests, whether a peace deal is possible with the Taliban, and how important Pakistan is to achieving a sustainable political settlement.

    December 3, 2019

    The Caucasus and the Middle East
    Georgian soldiers run during a farewell ceremony before their departure to Afghanistan in Tbilisi, June 27, 2013.
  • Analysis
  • The Caucasus and the Middle East

    For years, politics and conflicts in the Middle East have spilled over into many other regions of the world. Refugee crises, terrorism, and political instability in the Middle East have impacted foreign and domestic policy and politics in North America and Europe, but the Caucasus is much closer and, therefore, a particularly important case for policymakers in Washington and Brussels.

    December 2, 2019

    Turkey’s collision course with NATO
    President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) receives North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg (L) in Istanbul, Turkey on October 11, 2019.
  • Commentary
  • Turkey’s collision course with NATO

    NATO leaders will celebrate the 70th anniversary of their alliance in London on Dec. 3 and 4. Despite soft words from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, however, the alliance and Turkey are on a collision course.