Research & Commentary Results

Donor-backed reform efforts in the Lebanese Internal Security Forces have shown good results in a jurisdiction in Beirut. While imperfect and limited in scope, these results are encouraging, as obstacles to the provision of fair and effective policing in Lebanon are myriad.

In recent months fighting has repeatedly broken out between Syrian and Iranian-backed militias around Deir ez-Zor, initially over control of taxes and smuggling routes, but increasingly the conflict has taken on a strategic dimension as well.

President Donald Trump is doing the right thing on Syria — removing U.S. forces — but for the wrong reasons. As a consequence, the value and import of his decision will be less than might otherwise be the case.

On Dec. 18, 2018, the seaport in Libya’s capital was the scene of a surprising yet deft maneuver orchestrated by the city’s four main armed groups, namely the Tripoli Revolutionaries’ Brigade (TRB); Abu Salim’s Special Deterrence Force; the Nawasi Battalion; and the Bab Tajoura Brigade.

Eleven MEI scholars run down the major policy developments in the Middle East in 2018.

A secret letter recently obtained through an inside source sheds light on ISIS’s efforts to persuade an al-Qaeda affiliate to jump ship, abandon its allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahri, and join Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s ranks.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including Russian air strikes in Aleppo, the elections in Bahrain, the growing international interest in Egypt’s offshore energy finds, and the appointment of a new Afghan team of negotiators for peace talks.

The Egyptian/Qatari initiative has afforded breathing room for Gaza, while Hamas and Prime Minister Netanyahu have demonstrated a determination to avoid war, for now.

Negotiations shepherded by Egypt appear to be making progress in establishing a new, more stable chapter in the ongoing conflict, but instability remains at the heart of the Gaza standoff.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the Gaza flare-up and its threat to Egyptian-led negotiations, Russian-hosted Afghan peace talks, the ground offensive in Hodeidah, and rapid escalation in northwestern Syria.

As naval, air, and ground units from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE conduct war games in western Egypt this month, many speculate that this could represent the birth of the so-called “Arab NATO.”

The Tiger Forces is a Syrian Air Intelligence-affiliated militia fighting for the Syrian government and backed by Russia. While often described as the Syrian government’s elite fighting force, this research portrays a starkly different picture. The Tiger Forces are the largest single fighting force on the Syrian battlefield, with approximately 24 groups comprised of some 4,000 offensive infantry units as well as a dedicated artillery regiment and armor unit of unknown size. Beyond these fighters are thousands of additional so-called flex units, affiliated militiamen who remain largely garrisoned in their hometowns along the north Hama and Homs borders until called on to join offensives as needed.

A close look at the competing claims, actors, and movements for authority within the Syrian civil war reveals three distinct periods of political and religious influence: that of Syrian scholars, who were the first to inject religious language into the revolution; that of Salafi scholars predominantly from the Gulf; and lastly, that of jihadi organizations like ISIS and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, who were active on the ground.

After nearly two decades of war in Afghanistan ISKP has become a resilient force that sets the standard of Salafi jihadism in Afghanistan.

The assassinations are likely to undermine voter turnout in Afghanistan’s south and deepen divisions within the Afghan government about the prospect of peace with the Taliban.