Research & Commentary Results

Since the Trump administration refused to extend waivers for Iranian oil exports expiring on May 2nd, the U.S. and Iran have engaged in a cycle of escalating threats and actions. The U.S. has further ratcheted up its “maximum pressure” campaign by adding new sanctions, and in the last few days, the turmoil has deepened as the region absorbed reports of mysterious sabotage against tankers in Emirati ports, apparent Houthi drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities, and news that the Trump administration is contemplating substantial deployments of U.S. military personnel to the region.

A “black hole” of information, East Ghouta is a dark example of the reimposition of the Assad regime’s rule over a community once controlled by the opposition. This paper, produced in association with ETANA Syria, shines a light on what the regime’s military rule looks like on the ground and the resulting human rights violations against the population, and details the scale of the Iranian presence in key strategic locations around Damascus.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Robert S. Ford, Jonathan M. Winer, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the sabotage this weekend of four ships off the coast of the UAE, the recent escalation of fighting in northwestern Syria, efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Libya, and mounting concerns about Turkey’s economic health.

Much analysis of the geopolitical ramifications of President Omar al-Bashir’s ouster last month has focused on how Sudan fits into the larger struggle between the Middle East’s Sunni powers, but Iran is also part of the equation as well. Saudi and Emirati leaders have a number of objectives in Sudan and preventing the Islamic Republic from re-establishing a foothold in Africa is one of them. Indeed, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are determined to ensure that Khartoum remains firmly in the anti-Iranian camp, following its realignment between 2014 and early 2016.

It is time now for cooler heads to prevail and for both sides to back away from the precipice toward which they are moving.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Randa Slim, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the anniversary of the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, the economic crisis in Lebanon, and ongoing peace talks in Afghanistan.

Following a brief lull on the Israel-Syria front earlier this year, Tel Aviv has once again resorted to striking Iranian assets to its north. While a direct confrontation between the IDF and Syrian forces seems unlikely, the path forward for Israel and Syria is unclear.

The recent arrest in Turkey of two suspects accused of spying for the United Arab Emirates highlights the growing divide between the two countries. Although the original cause of the rift – diverging views of the Muslim Brotherhood – has become less relevant in recent years, the enmity between the two nations endures.

The Trump administration’s decision on April 22 to stop waiving sanctions on eight countries that purchase Iranian crude sent oil prices to their highest levels in six months and resulted in defiance and hand-wringing from the three biggest buyers. Meanwhile, Iran said it would retaliate by shutting the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would make it difficult for other Persian Gulf countries to get their crude to market.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has faced many difficulties over the past few years, both at home and abroad. It seems likely that President Trump’s recent designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) may render Rouhani’s prospects even worse as domestic support for the organization grows.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Randa Slim, Emadeddin Badi, and Robert S. Ford provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the US decision to end Iran oil waivers, the flagging Afghan peace process, Iraq’s evolving regional policy, the status of General Hifter’s offensive in Libya, and Russia’s maneuvering to control the upcoming Syria talks in Astana.

Iran’s huge hydrocarbons reserves and Turkey’s growing demand for oil and gas seem to suggest great potential for energy collaboration. US sanctions and pricing disputes, however, limit and complicate the prospects of such a partnership.

MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka and Omar Al-Nidawi, a Middle East analyst focusing on Iraqi political, security and energy affairs, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss what the designation means in practical terms, how Tehran has responded, and its implications for the region going forward.

This article was published by the Caspian Policy Center.

The suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) has been one of ISIS’s most powerful and versatile weapons. The group consistently adapted its SVBIED designs based on operational environment and other factors, with modifications in armor, payload organization, color, and detonation technology. ISIS’s research and development of SVBIED technology presents a continued threat, even after the collapse of the territorial caliphate, due to the group’s ability to share and export its designs, enabling nascent ISIS provinces halfway around the world to launch powerful attacks on unsuspecting communities.