Research & Commentary Results

With Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections nearing, the coalition of Iranian-supported militia groups called Fateh Alliance is confident that it can translate its military gains into a political victory by either winning the premiership or playing kingmaker in the post-election government formation process, according to Tasnim News Agency, an outlet affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

The Moroccan government announced yesterday that it has severed its diplomatic relations with Iran over Tehran’s support for the Polisario Front, a separatist movement in Western Sahara,

The commander of the Fatemiyoun Division, an all-Afghan militia unit fighting under the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ leadership in Syria, has rejected media reports that missiles hit its military base near Syria’s northwest over the weekend. “The military base of this Division is near the city of Aleppo. No combatants from this force have been martyred by an attack as reported in the media,” Tasnim News Agency, a Revolutionary Guards mouthpiece, quoted the Afghan Shiite commander as saying in an exclusive interview, without disclosing his name.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, W. Robert Pearson, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the escalating deterrence between Israel and Iran, Pompeo’s pressure to resolve the Gulf crisis, Turkey’s increasing isolation, and the Pashtun protests in Pakistan.

Iran’s regional militia allies have vowed retaliation for the death of Houthi leader Saleh al-Sammad in Yemen, the Iranian media reported. The Houthi rebels as well as Iran’s regional militia proxies said they would hold not only Saudi Arabia but also the United States accountable for the killing of al-Sammad. The Iraqi Hezbollah said the Houthi leader’s assassination will open a new chapter in the fight against Saudi Arabia, which it said is “mired in the Yemeni quagmire.” It also accused Washington of complicity.

French President Emanuel Macron’s proposal to his US counterpart Donald Trump for a “new deal” with Iran has caused a great deal of anxiety in Tehran. Headlines in the Iranian media today, most in conservative outlets, accused France and Europe of betraying Tehran and siding with Washington. “Europe kneeled down,” read the headline of Vatan-e Emrooz. The paper wrote that the French president was the last ray of hope to save the nuclear accord and convince Trump to stick to the deal rather than scrap it.

In the latest measure to restrict Internet and disrupt foreign messaging apps, the Iranian government today announced that it has revoked Telegram’s license to host servers inside the country, the Iranian media reported. The Supreme Cyberspace Council, an agency tasked with monitoring and filtering Internet in Iran, said the license cancellation means Telegram, used by more than a half of Iran’s 80 million population, has to transfer all its servers outside Iran, and that all incoming traffic will now have to be channeled through Iran’s gove

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron signaled that they will work on a “new deal” to supplement the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement and address the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missile program and destabilizing role in the region. Tehran’s response was loud and clear: The Islamic Republic will defy Western pressure and will not renegotiate the nuclear deal or make any compromises over its defense programs and regional posture.

Over the last few months, Iran has experienced a series of street protests in rural areas and social arenas once seen as the key support base for the Islamic Republic. Politically active youth are voicing their frustrations with the country’s political, social, and economic prospects. Many of these protests as well as online activism have been met with pushback from conservatives and crackdown from the government.

Iranian leaders on Tuesday said they will defy Western pressure and will not renegotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear accord Tehran signed with world powers nearly three years ago. Several top Iranian officials also threatened to take drastic measures, including leaving the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), if the Trump administration terminates the nuclear accord and re-imposes sanctions on Tehran. “We increased the cost for the enemy over the past five years. And if the JCPOA collapses, we have a plan.

The Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said today that the Islamic Republic is determined to punish Israel for the latest strikes on a Syrian air base in which several Iranian military personnel were killed.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Paul Salem, Nathan Stock, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including upcoming snap elections in Turkey, Lebanon’s Free Patriotic Movement party, protests in Gaza, the future of the Iran nuclear deal, Yemeni peace talks, and the ISKP attack on Shiite Hazaras.

The deputy commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards today threatened to annihilate Israel in an apparent reaction to the latest Israeli military strikes against Syrian and Iranian military targets in Syria. “Listen!

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani voiced support for the country’s military forces to develop advance weapons, including missiles, to enhance the Islamic Republic’s deterrence capabilities. “I am support the Artesh [Iran’s regular army] and Sepah [Islamic Revolution Guards Corps] to make any weapons needed for defense,” the Iranian media quoted the president as saying at a ceremony marking the anniversary of the Iranian Army. He emphasized that the Iranian Army and the IRGC do not need the permission of any foreign power to bolster the country’s defense capabilities.

The office of Hassan Rouhani today announced that the Iranian president has suspended his official account in Telegram, Iranian media reported. Rouhani’s decision came after Supreme Leader Ali Khameni’s office said yesterday that the Iranian leader would no longer use Telegram to “safeguard” Iran’s national security and “remove the monopoly of Telegram messenger”.