What does Trump’s Golan proclamation mean for UNDOF?
Sometime in June the UN Security Council will vote to approve another six-month renewal of the mandate of the 1000-strong UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) deployed in the Golan Heights. For more than four decades, the UN Security Council has unanimously renewed the mission’s mandate to maintain the ceasefire between Israel and Syria, but this will be the first time it has come up for a vote since President Donald Trump signed a proclamation recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the area of the Golan Heights on March 25th.
Shamila Chaudhary, Michael Kugelman, and Marvin Weinbaum join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the political situation in Afghanistan following the expiration of President Ashraf Ghani’s term in office, presidential elections in September, the state of US-Taliban talks and the intra-Afghan dialogue.
Is Trump’s “Deal of the Century” really a peace plan?
The Trump administration is preparing to present the “Deal of the Century,” proposing an outline for an Israeli-Palestinian agreement. Very little is known about the plan so far. However, it is important to discuss the context and the conditions under which it has been formulated, and to highlight some basic elements that are required for a third party to promote a peace plan — which are absent in this case.
U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad is holding talks with the Afghan Taliban to make sure the guns fall silent in Afghanistan. But getting the Taliban to agree on a ceasefire and engage in an intra-Afghan dialogue is severely testing Khalilzad’s negotiating skills; the fifth round of talks in Doha lasted for 16 days. If the intra-Afghan dimension cannot be made to work, it will likely lead to not only a more complicated political process, but also a far more dangerous one.
In the days before his recent election victory, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised the prospect of Israel’s formal annexation of the West Bank settlement areas where close to half a million Israelis reside. For more than half a century Israeli governments of all parties and constellations have been enthusiastic partners in policies of occupation and settlement of territories conquered in the Arab-Israeli war of 1967.
Following a brief lull on the Israel-Syria front earlier this year, Tel Aviv has once again resorted to striking Iranian assets to its north. While a direct confrontation between the IDF and Syrian forces seems unlikely, the path forward for Israel and Syria is unclear.
Benjamin Netanyahu will undoubtedly succeed himself as Israel’s prime minister after his recent electoral success and, in July, surpass David Ben-Gurion as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. But, unlike most genuinely successful leaders of democracies, his first priority will have to be avoiding indictment for corruption and going to prison.
Israel’s general election, to be held next Tuesday, April 9, is full of even more sound and fury than usual, but it isn’t at all clear what it will signify.
After a decade in power, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces significant headwinds in the forms of a strong challenge from the new Blue and White party and the specter of multiple criminal indictments. Natan Sachs, Amir Tibon, and Grace Wermenbol join host Alistair Taylor to discuss whether this could be the year of a major shakeup in Israeli politics.
US-Taliban talks strain ties between Washington and Kabul
More than six months on, the Afghan government remains excluded from U.S.-Taliban peace talks, and the Taliban still refuses to engage with the authorities in Kabul or halt its deadly attacks. The exclusion of the Afghan government has caused severe strains in the relationship between Washington and Kabul.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Nathan Stock, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the government shakeup in Algeria, Egyptian President el-Sissi’s visit to Washington, rocket attacks from Gaza, Imran Khan’s war against poverty, and a $69 billion merger between Saudi Arabia’s oil and chemical giants.
Monday Briefing | Iraq: Outreach abroad, but troubles at home
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi’s first foreign trip to Egypt, the future threat posed by ISIS, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s AIPAC meeting in Washington, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Lebanon.
The image of a unified Israeli-Saudi front has significant deterrence value against Iran but should also be used within the context of solving the GCC crisis.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Robert S. Ford, Marvin G. Weinbaum, James P. Farwell, Emadeddin Badi, Guney Yildiz, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s visit to Baghdad, reconstruction efforts in Syria, the crackdown on militant Islamists in Pakistan, Iran’s cyber attack capabilities, upcoming elections in Libya, Turkish-Egyptian tensions, and Qatar’s $12B loan from bond markets.
