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The Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Regional and great power rivalries on the shores of the Red Sea
People hold Chinese and Djiboutian national flags as they wait for the arrival of Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guellehas before the launching ceremony of new 1000-unit housing contruction project in Djibouti, on July 4, 2018. - The new 1000-unit construction project by the Ismail Omar Guelleh Foundation for Housing is financially supported by China Merchant, the operation parther of newly inaugurated Djibouti International Free Trade Zone (DITTZ) with Djibouti Ports and Free Zones Authority, to build ba
  • Analysis
  • The Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Regional and great power rivalries on the shores of the Red Sea

    The Bab el-Mandeb Strait (“Gate of Tears” in Arabic) forms a vital strategic link in the maritime trade route between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. On one side of the narrow strait lies the Arabian Peninsula. On the other is the Horn of Africa, a fragile region that has been plagued for decades by high levels of violence and instability within and across borders, and which in recent years has served as a launching pad for terrorism, piracy, human trafficking, and smuggling operations.

    The day after Soleimani: Israel contemplates “success leveraging”
     A file photo dated September 18, 2016 shows Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani during Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's meeting with Revolutionary Guards, in Tehran, Iran.
  • Analysis
  • The day after Soleimani: Israel contemplates “success leveraging”

    Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani was on Israel’s “most wanted” list for more than a decade. Israeli intelligence identified him as a looming threat early in his career, and with time he outperformed even the graver threat predictions, as he systematically built the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force into a formidable regional stealth operation. Soleimani was a highly sophisticated executioner of Iran’s long-term strategy, which can be described as an effort to build a “double crescent.”

    Trump’s “peace plan” aims to bury the two-state solution
    A picture taken on January 27, 2020 shows Israel's controversial concrete barrier (C) separating the Jewish settlement of Neve Yaakov (foreground) in the northern part of east Jerusalem and the Palestinian area of al-Ram (background) in the occupied West Bank.
  • Commentary
  • Trump’s “peace plan” aims to bury the two-state solution

    The notion that an American president, in consultation with two Israeli leaders, could decide on the future of Palestinians without any Palestinian involvement seems to epitomize Trump’s overall approach to the conflict.

    January 27, 2020

    It’s shameful to use Palestinians as props in Israel’s election
    U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands while walking through the colonnade prior to an Oval Office meeting at the White House March 25, 2019 in Washington, DC.
  • Analysis
  • It’s shameful to use Palestinians as props in Israel’s election

    The upcoming visit to the White House by Israel’s caretaker prime minister has nothing to do with the Middle East conflict and everything to do with giving yet another political favor to Benyamin Netanyahu. While the Jan. 28 visit may be all about the Israeli elections, it is shameful and dangerous for American officials to be giving time and space for discussions that affect the Palestinian people without their involvement.

    January 27, 2020

    The ties that bind: The South Caucasus and the Middle East
    Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu (C), Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Javad Zarif (R) and Azerbaijani Minister of Foreign Affairs, Elmar Mammadyarov (L) pose for a photo prior the tripartite meeting of foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran in Istanbul, Turkey on October 30, 2018.
  • Analysis
  • The ties that bind: The South Caucasus and the Middle East

    As neighboring regions, the South Caucasus and the Middle East are inextricably intertwined — so much so that the former is sometimes even considered part of the Greater Middle East. While geographical proximity is the strongest driver of interconnectivity between the two regions, geopolitics, business ties, and energy interests also link countries from the South Caucasus and the Middle East and form the basis for important bilateral and regional relationships.

    January 24, 2020

    Iran’s “harsh revenge”: Is blocking the Strait of Hormuz really a plausible option?
    Iranian soldiers take part in the
  • Analysis
  • Iran’s “harsh revenge”: Is blocking the Strait of Hormuz really a plausible option?

    In the immediate aftermath of the assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Quds Force, on Jan. 3, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the U.S. of Iran’s “harsh revenge.” There has been much speculation around the timing, location, and the type (or form) of Iran’s promised revenge. Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou takes a closer look at the impact of the widely discussed strategy of blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

    January 23, 2020

    Yemen’s Stockholm Agreement one year on: Imaginary progress?
    Yemen's foreign minister Khaled al-Yamani (L) and the head orebel negotiator Mohammed Abdelsalam (R) shake hands under the eyes of United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres (C), during peace consultations taking place at Johannesberg Castle in Rimbo, north of Stockholm, Sweden, on December 13, 2018.
  • Analysis
  • Yemen’s Stockholm Agreement one year on: Imaginary progress?

    Just over a year ago, the international community rejoiced in the revival of the UN-led Yemen peace process with the conclusion of the Stockholm Agreement between the Yemeni government and the Houthi insurgency (Ansar Allah), brokered by UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths. Although the deal marked the first political breakthrough in the peace process since the collapse of Geneva and Kuwait talks under Griffith’s predecessor, the ensuing hurdles in implementation meant that hopes for its success were short-lived. In evaluating the progress on the agreement’s three key components — covering prisoner exchange, Hodeida, and Taiz — it quickly becomes clear that the truism that implementing peace agreements is far more important, and difficult, than concluding them still rings true.

    January 22, 2020

    The next Israeli election: The triumph of the fringes?
    Ballots seen with the party names during the elections. Israel holds elections for the next Prime Minister.
  • Analysis
  • The next Israeli election: The triumph of the fringes?

    Jan.15, 2020 was the last date to submit electoral “lists” for the Israeli election scheduled for March 2. A flurry of parties on both ends were registered in the days before the Jan. 15 deadline, and some of their leaders may well be part of and influence the Israeli government that will (eventually) be formed.

    January 22, 2020

    Foreign policy and commercial interests drive closer UAE-Syria ties
    The United Arab Emirates embassy is pictured in the Syrian capital Damascus on December 27, 2018 after its reopening, the latest sign of efforts to bring the Syrian government back into the Arab fold
  • Analysis
  • Foreign policy and commercial interests drive closer UAE-Syria ties

    On Dec. 2, a series of public statements from Emirati and Syrian officials brought widespread attention to the UAE’s rapprochement with Syria. In a video circulated by Russian state media outlet RT, the UAE’s charge d’affaires in Syria, Abdul-Hakim Naimi, praised the “wise leadership” of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and hailed the Syria-UAE relationship as “solid, distinct, and strong.” Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad responded enthusiastically to Naimi’s comments by praising the UAE for standing by the Syrian government in its war against terrorism.

    January 21, 2020

    Where will Iran hit next? Cyber
    A billboard bearing a portrait with the black mourning ribbon of slain Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani (L) and Iraqi paramilitary chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis hangs on a main road in the Iranian capital Tehran on January 4, 2020, one day after Soleimani and other members of the pro-Iranian Iraqi paramilitary group Al-Hashed Al-Shaabi were killed in a US air strike near Baghdad international airport.
  • Analysis
  • Where will Iran hit next? Cyber

    Following the recent escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, the threat of Iranian cyberattacks is likely to intensify in the near to medium term. There are three possible fronts where Iran might look to carry out cyber operations: targeting the energy infrastructure of America’s Gulf allies; deploying malware against U.S. private sector companies; and launching disinformation campaigns that would aim to influence public opinion in both the Middle East and the U.S. 

    Oman’s new era
    Vice President of Turkey Fuat Oktay offers his condolences to Oman's new Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said over the death of longtime ruler Qaboos bin Said al Said at the Al Alam Palace in Muscat, Oman on January 12, 2020.
  • Analysis
  • Oman’s new era

    The announcement of Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said’s passing on Jan. 10 marked the end of an era. Now that the Arab world lost its longest-serving leader, none of the Gulf states has a ruler that was on the throne when the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was established in 1981. Most Omanis have never known another leader and this transition period, marked by three days of mourning, is an emotional time for those in the sultanate.

    January 13, 2020

    The Military-Security Dimension of Israel-Southeast Asia Relations
  • Analysis
  • The Military-Security Dimension of Israel-Southeast Asia Relations

    Over the past two decades, Israel has developed robust bilateral relationships with China, India, and Singapore. Israel has also succeeded in forging ties with Japan and South Korea. More recently, Israel has devoted considerable attention to strengthening its relations with Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar. Military-security cooperation in the form of arms trade as well as technology transfer and licensed production has emerged as an important dimension of Israel’s relations with Southeast Asian countries.

    January 7, 2020