Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
At the Washington Summit, NATO member states mostly focused on efforts to counter Russia and to support Ukraine. However, the 2024 summit communiqué also addresses non-Euro-Atlantic risks and opportunities, based on the idea that “conflict, fragility and instability” elsewhere directly affects NATO security.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
With NATO celebrating 75 years since its founding, Alliance members will gather in Washington, DC, on July 9-11, for a historic summit. Two of the key issues on the agenda will be addressing the acute threats emanating from the Black Sea region and adopting a strategic approach toward the Middle East and Africa.
On July 9-11, Washington will host the leaders of NATO’s 32 member states for a special anniversary summit, celebrating 75 years since the Alliance’s founding. But the NATO heads of state and government are unlikely to spend much time reminiscing. Their agenda will be full, spanning from Ukraine, Russia, wars in the Middle East, China, terrorism, cyber threats, NATO enlargement, boosting Allied capabilities, freedom of navigation around the world, nuclear deterrence, and more.
In its 2022 Strategic Concept, NATO declared the Black Sea Region (BSR) of strategic importance for the Alliance, yet this recognition has never translated into NATO developing a proper strategy toward its critical southeastern flank. That glaring gap must be addressed right away.
While the Washington Summit is unlikely to deliver any ground-breaking outcome, it certainly offers the opportunity to articulate the nexus between security in Europe and the Mediterranean-African region. NATO also has the opportunity to renew and streamline its partnerships with Middle Eastern and North African countries while strengthening its outreach to Africa.
Eight years ago, few would have predicted that Russia could move in as quickly and comprehensively throughout Africa as it has done. Now there is widespread recognition of the threat posed by the destabilizing Russian expansion in Africa, to NATO, its members, and the African region.
On April 17, Russian and Azerbaijani officials confirmed that the Russian peacekeeping forces deployed in Karabakh since November 2020 had begun pulling out from the region. The reasons behind the decision remain a matter of intense debate; but it is possible to draw several important conclusions from its timing and consequences.
Strategically located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz on the Arabian Sea, Gwadar, once a derelict port, was revitalized as part of the broader development of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and declared fully operational in 2021. Can a renewed focus on the Gwadar port and the socio-economic and security situation of the surrounding region help Islamabad and Beijing rescue CPEC from failure?
In early April, a highly publicized trilateral meeting involving the United States, the European Union, and Armenia was widely believed to mark a turning point in Yerevan’s relationship with the West. If it comes to pass, it will present Baku with its own critical decision: whether to abandon multi-vectorism and more fully align with Russia or the West.
The month of April saw a series of unprecedented escalations in the long-simmering Iranian-Israeli conflict, with both countries launching missile and drone attacks against the other’s territory for the first time in history.
In the wake of these strikes, what will be the impact on the regional security and political environment going forward, what is needed to stabilize the new rules of the game, and how can US diplomacy help to facilitate that process? MEI has asked its experts to weigh in.
In a significant and surprising turn of events, on the evening of April 5, a prominent Iraqi leader in the Syrian Sunni Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Maysar bin Ali al-Juburi, also known as Abu Maria al-Qahtani, was reportedly killed in an attack in Idlib’s northern countryside.
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the threat of sea mines to maritime traffic in the region has become exponentially more acute. The Turkish-Romanian-Bulgarian trilateral minesweeping mission is a welcome sign of regional willingness to cooperate in this space and could, with the right incentives and sufficient political will, open the door to the establishment of a NATO Black Sea Fleet.
This Study analyzes how and to what extent terrorists and violent extremists have interacted with generative AI so far, identifies potential ways in which they could misuse generative AI in the future, and then contextualizes these threats with the likely broader impacts of generative AI. In doing so, the Study seeks to identify a likely trajectory for the abuse of this technology by terrorist actors as well as concludes with some initial recommendations for policymakers.