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US has an opening to force concessions from Iran in a potential deal
Photo: Satellite image (c) 2025 Maxar Technologies
  • Commentary
  • US has an opening to force concessions from Iran in a potential deal

    As the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies, warnings are growing louder that the war could result in hazardous and destructive radiological spillover to much of the region. But the posturing of various key actors in the Gulf and beyond has opened the door to a broader political settlement between the United States and Iran that could end the hostilities before such a dangerous scenario comes to pass.

    Khamenei postures and blinks at the same time
    Photo by Firdous Nazir/NurPhoto via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • Khamenei postures and blinks at the same time

    As the war between Iran and Israel continued, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a speech on June 17, framing the conflict as an “imposed war” and calling for national unity. But instead of using this moment to explore diplomatic off-ramps, particularly as President Donald Trump signaled the possible direct participation of the United States in the war on the side of Israel, Khamenei opted for posturing over negotiation and left the Iranian people even more fearful about the future.

    On Iran, US restraint could reduce risks
    Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • On Iran, US restraint could reduce risks

    President Donald Trump threatens Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But measured language and disciplined policy can help prevent escalation and protect American interests.

    Sanctions are lifting, but Syrians still can’t go home
    Jobar, Syria, taken on 3 June 2025 by Jesse Marks
  • Analysis
  • Sanctions are lifting, but Syrians still can’t go home

    On May 23, President Donald Trump’s administration suspended the majority of sanctions on Syria, marking the most sweeping shift in the policy of the United States toward Damascus in over a decade. But lifting sanctions will not magically make Syria safe for return. For millions of displaced Syrians, their country remains a minefield — literally and bureaucratically.

    June 16, 2025

    Building Syria’s new army: Future plans and the challenges ahead
    Photo by Asaad Al Asaad/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Building Syria’s new army: Future plans and the challenges ahead

    Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on Dec. 8, 2024, after the rebel military operation “Deterrence of Aggression” and the establishment of a transitional government, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s interim president, quickly began working to form a unified national army, dismantle the existing factions, and centralize all weapons under the authority of the state in an effort to address one of the most pressing challenges facing his administration. While several initial moves have been completed, important steps in this complicated process are still pending. This article highlights the current developments surrounding the formation of the new army, including progress achieved to date and key challenges going forward.

    America moves closer to the brink of maximum uncertainty at home and abroad
    Photo by Ronoldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • America moves closer to the brink of maximum uncertainty at home and abroad

    The spotlight in America this week is trained on the home front, with growing tensions inside the country over President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown and a showdown unfolding on the streets of Los Angeles. At times like these, the rest of the world has a way of intruding, sometimes unexpectedly, and Trump 2.0’s foreign policy is still struggling to produce a major positive outcome from its frenetic activity trying to end kinetic wars while prosecuting an unprecedented economic war with much of the rest of the world.

    Saudi Arabia’s AI ambition, and what it means for the United States
    Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Saudi Arabia’s AI ambition, and what it means for the United States

    A day before Air Force One touched down in Riyadh to kick off US President Donald Trump’s three-country tour of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia made a pivotal announcement. The kingdom, long synonymous with oil, revealed a major investment in artificial intelligence (AI) through its newly launched company, HumAIn. This pivot, explicitly timed to coincide with Trump’s visit starting on May 13, and in anticipation of the signing of multiple tech deals between US and Gulf firms during the trip, signaled a profound shift in US-Saudi relations — from a traditional oil-for-security alliance to a partnership centered on AI and digital infrastructure.

    The downside oil market risks of a new Iran deal
    Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The downside oil market risks of a new Iran deal

    Near-term progress in a renewed nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran could add further downward pressure to a delicate oil market, potentially heralding more fiscal pain for Gulf oil producers and complicating US energy strategy.

    Syria Looks to a Future Unburdened from US Sanctions
  • Podcast
  • Syria Looks to a Future Unburdened from US Sanctions

    MEI Senior Fellow Charles Lister joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss the Trump administration’s dramatic reversal of four decades of US policy toward Syria. Following President Trump’s May 2025 meeting with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and the issuance of a new general license and 180-day waiver of Caesar Act sanctions, the episode explores the implications of this policy shift. What does this mean for Syria’s recovery and reconstruction? How are regional actors like Turkey, Israel, and the Gulf states responding?

    May 29, 2025

    Back to reality: Gravity remains in place after Trump’s trip
    Photo by Bahsar Taleb/AFP via Getty Images (2385)
  • Analysis
  • Back to reality: Gravity remains in place after Trump’s trip

    The harsh realities of the region’s threats and challenges, like Iran and the Gaza war, stubbornly persist following the pomp and circumstance of Trump’s “spring bling” tour, which featured eye-popping dollar figures and an offer of a luxury jumbo jet from Qatar.

    US-Houthi Ceasefire Deal & the Future of Red Sea Security
  • Podcast
  • US-Houthi Ceasefire Deal & the Future of Red Sea Security

    The sudden announcement of a US-Houthi ceasefire, brokered by Oman, has halted Washington’s air campaign in Yemen and raised urgent questions about the future of Red Sea security. What prompted the deal, and what are its implications for maritime shipping, regional alliances, and the trajectory of Yemen’s civil war? This episode explores the strategic motivations behind the ceasefire, the role of Iran and Saudi Arabia, and how the Houthis could leverage the pause to regroup and expand their influence across the Horn of Africa.

    May 15, 2025

    Trump should build on the momentum with Syria and help prevent a Turkey-Israel clash
    Photo by Bandar Al-Jaloud/Saudi Royal Court/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Trump should build on the momentum with Syria and help prevent a Turkey-Israel clash

    Two recent developments present the new Syrian government with a critical opportunity to stabilize the country. First, US President Donald Trump announced plans to lift sanctions on Syria. Second, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party declared it would disband and dissolve itself — a move that will help Damascus to finalize a deal with the Syrian Democratic Forces and integrate it into the new Syrian national army. President Trump should build on this momentum and seize the opportunity to address one of the most complex remaining challenges facing Syria: the risk of a military confrontation between Turkey and Israel inside the country.