Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
The year 2023 marks the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Turkish Republic. MEI Editor-in-chief Alistair Taylor and Turkey Program Director Gonul Tol discuss where things stand today: the political landscape in the aftermath of the May 2023 elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s push for constitutional change, and how Turkey is dealing with key foreign policy issues like the Israel-Hamas war, Sweden’s NATO membership bid, and relations with the U.S.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Outside of the security risks brought about by war, the Israel-Hamas conflict has yet to result in major changes in the regional natural gas market.
It isn’t a surprise that Sudan’s two warring sides — the Sudanese Armed Forces and its sprawling paramilitary Rapid Support Forces — did not agree to a ceasefire. When they resumed talks in Jeddah, mediated by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in late October, the RSF was busy launching a major offensive on the vast western region of Darfur.
In recent years, China’s presence in Egypt’s strategic ports has grown noticeably, including the involvement of both private and state-owned Chinese companies. While this reflects Beijing’s growing ambitions in the region, the opacity of the Sino-Egyptian agreements and the blurry lines between China’s commercial ports and its military aspirations raise questions about the potential implications.
Modern Türkiye (the official spelling of Turkey since 2021) sprang like a phoenix from the ashes in 1923, overcoming daunting odds. Its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, had foolishly joined the war with the Central Powers in 1914 and naively thought its Arab subjects would remain loyal, only to have been utterly defeated and then dismembered. A rebellion led by the empire’s most famous war hero and leader, Kemal Ataturk, overthrew the last sultan, rejected an unjust treaty to divide up the country and repelled the occupying Allies. He established a contemporary republic based on popular
Hamas’ violent and unexpected Oct. 7 attack on Israel has shaken a fragile regional order in the Middle East. Ankara and Tehran are worried that a stronger U.S. presence in the Middle East is detrimental to their regional interests. The war in Gaza might help close the ranks between Turkey and Iran, yet there are serious limitations to a sustainable alliance between the two countries.
For the better part of a decade, Turkey and the U.S. have been locked in what might be considered an unhappy marriage, marked by bitter misunderstandings and growing distrust. Some optimists had hoped that something of a reset might be possible, but recent events, both in Turkey’s ongoing conflict with the PKK and because of the ripple effects from Israel’s war with Hamas, likely mean that U.S.-Turkish relations, far from improving, will get colder yet in the months to come.
Prigozhin’s coup was a serious warning sign that should prompt Turkey to cool ties with Russia and rebuild its relationship with the West. Yet today, Turkey and the West look at each other in terms of problems not solutions. While the political risks of reengagement are high for both sides, the potential rewards are well worth the effort needed to overcome them.
After several quiet months on the Turkish-Syrian border, tensions have escalated in recent days. Turkish forces have intensified their attacks against the SDF in northeastern Syria and targeted PKK hideouts along the Turkish-Iraqi border. This escalation is unfolding against the backdrop of the suicide blast in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, on Oct. 1 that targeted the Interior Ministry.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.