Navigating complex maritime security challenges in the Black and Mediterranean seas: Insights from the updated EUMSS
Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine helped influence the updated European Maritime Security Strategy’s approach to the Black and Mediterranean seas, with implicit and explicit references to the war dispersed throughout the document. The updated EUMSS showcases the wide array of security issues present in the region, including seaborne UXOs, human and drug trafficking, and threats to critical infrastructure. But security in the Black and Mediterranean seas will require greater cooperation with non-EU countries.
On this week’s episode Alistair Taylor, MEI’s editor-in-chief, is joined by Gönül Tol, the founding director of MEI’s Turkey Program and the author of “Erdogan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria,” to discuss Turkey’s critical upcoming elections. After two decades in power, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) are facing unprecedented challenges, including an economy in shambles, the ongoing impact of the devastating early February earthquakes, and a united opposition.
The economic impact of Turkey’s elections: Six potential scenarios
As Turkey heads to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections this month, the consequences for its troubled economy are likely to be significant and wide-ranging. Financial stability, business confidence, purchasing power, and asset prices all depend on whether President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s two-decade-long rule will continue; at the same time these factors will also determine his chances for re-election. There are a number of potential election outcomes that could lead to greater uncertainty and volatility rather than clarity and stability.
If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his AKP are defeated in this month’s elections, the next government, led by the CHP, will likely prove more agreeable — or at least no more difficult — on virtually every issue of importance to the United States and Turkey’s other allies in the NATO. There undoubtedly will still be areas of contention, including some of the same ones that have bedeviled the West’s relations with Turkey under Erdoğan. For reasons both ideological and economic, however, a new Turkish government would want a closer relationship with the West than Erdoğan has pursued for many years.
Assessing competing scenarios for Turkey’s parliamentary elections
On May 14, Turkish voters are headed to the polls for twin elections — presidential and parliamentary — that are expected to shape the country’s political trajectory for years to come. While the presidential race has generated wide interest in the international media, there is little informed discussion when it comes to the parliamentary elections. Unlike the presidential elections, which quickly turned into a tight contest between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the main opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the parliamentary races are more unpredictable at this point.
Polarizing populism vs. inclusive positivity: Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu’s dueling campaign strategies
As Turkey gears up for a crucial election, the country is currently witnessing two very different political campaign styles. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is seeking re-election, is competing against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the joint candidate of the Nation Alliance. The two candidates’ wildly different political and governing styles are apparent in their campaigns: President Erdoğan follows a polarizing, negative, and fear-based approach focused on energizing his base, while Kılıçdaroğlu’s campaign is dynamic, inclusive, and positive.
The dust has not yet settled ahead of Turkey’s elections
We’re only in May but it’s safe to say that 2023 has been one of the longest years in the history of Turkish politics. The main issues in the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 are the deteriorating economic conditions and identity politics. For the first time in two decades President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is heading into an election not in the lead.
Turkey's 2023 Elections: Perspectives on a Critical Vote
It is a cliché for politicians to claim that an upcoming election is the most critical vote in the history of the country. In Turkey’s case, however, the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 are indeed the most consequential ever. The prospects for Turkey’s democratic future are at stake.
Turkish Election Watch: The Week of April 30-May 7
Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: more signs of opposition strength, the stoning of İmamoğlu’s campaign bus in Erzurum, Babacan’s economic role, and the ruling coalition takes off the gloves.
The Turkish Elections and the Future of Northwest Syria: Scenarios and Policy Implications
The Syrian conflict has had a major impact on Turkey’s internal political discourse, with much of the discussion centering around the conflict itself, Turkey’s role in northern Syria, and the refugee crisis. This paper employs a scenario analysis methodology to explore potential outcomes that may impact Northwestern Syria following the upcoming Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14.
Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: Erdoğan falls ill, Kılıçdaroğlu rallies in an AKP stronghold, Erdoğan dials up the culture war, concerns grow over election security, and what the polls tell us.
Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: The Kılıçdaroğlu campaign gets exciting, Erdoğan adds natural gas discount to pre-vote handouts and dials up the tension, and the top electoral body makes a surprising decision.
