The “Anti-Strategic President” Needs to Revive a Policy Process to Resolve Iran
President Donald Trump’s disdain for strategy extends to process: mass National Security Council firings and reliance on a tiny circle of advisors have left the interagency policy process dormant amid the Iran war. The result is improvised, damaging moves like the Strait of Hormuz toll scheme. Reviving a professional, deliberative policy process is essential.
The Iraqi Peshmerga, the military arm of the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), remains one of the United States’ most important defense partners in the Middle East. This monograph provides an in-depth assessment of Peshmerga combat effectiveness, particularly considering its experience in the war against the Islamic State and its subsequent clash with the Iraqi Army and Iran-backed militias. Drawing on past research and more than two dozen interviews with Peshmerga officers, US military officers, and subject matter experts, this study includes detailed policy recommendations as well as a discussion of their implications.
As the US-Israel-Iran war enters its sixth month, the conflict has taken a sharp turn. After a brief lull in the fighting, Iran launched a surprise ballistic missile attack on US forces on July 28, and the US and Saudi Arabia struck back at Iran-backed militias in Iraq, marking Riyadh’s entry into the war. MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins host Alistair Taylor to discuss the escalation, what may come next, and the state of talks over sharing the Strait of Hormuz.
Forgotten Lives: Life Under Regime Rule in East Ghouta
A “black hole” of information, East Ghouta is a dark example of the reimposition of the Assad regime’s rule over a community once controlled by the opposition. This paper, produced in association with ETANA Syria, shines a light on what the regime’s military rule looks like on the ground and the resulting human rights violations against the population, and details the scale of the Iranian presence in key strategic locations around Damascus.
Much analysis of the geopolitical ramifications of President Omar al-Bashir’s ouster last month has focused on how Sudan fits into the larger struggle between the Middle East’s Sunni powers, but Iran is also part of the equation as well. Saudi and Emirati leaders have a number of objectives in Sudan and preventing the Islamic Republic from re-establishing a foothold in Africa is one of them. Indeed, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are determined to ensure that Khartoum remains firmly in the anti-Iranian camp, following its realignment between 2014 and early 2016.
The Syrian Civil War: A New Stage, but Is It the Final One?
Eight years on, the Syrian civil war is finally winding down. The government of Bashar al-Assad has largely won, but the cost has been steep. The economy is shattered, there are more than 5 million Syrian refugees abroad, and the government lacks the resources to rebuild. The country remains divided into three zones, each in the hands of a different group and supported by foreign forces. The Syrian government will not accept partition and is ultimately likely to reassert its control in the other two zones.
Monday Briefing: New Arab uprisings echo earlier revolts
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Jonathan M. Winer, Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Charles Schmitz provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the current uprisings in Algeria and Sudan, General Hifter’s effort to take Tripoli, the hirak protest movement in Algeria, the strategic partnership between Egypt and the U.S., and cracks in the coalition of President Hadi in Yemen.
Monday Briefing: US IRGC terrorist designation and the view from Tehran
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Emadeddin Badi, Yousef Munayyer, Randa Slim, and Shahrokh Fardoust provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the IRGC’s designation as a terrorist group, the battle for control of Tripoli in Libya, the impact of Israel’s elections on the Palestinian crisis, Iraqi PM Abdul-Mahdi’s first official visit to Iran, and the spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF in DC.
Russia looks to the Middle East to boost arms exports
According to SIPRI’s recently published annual report, Russia’s share of global arms exports shrank by around one-fifth over the last decade, falling from 27 percent to 21 percent, while the U.S. share increased from 30 percent to 36 percent, widening the gap between the two major arms exporters. As Russia looks to reverse this decline, it is focusing on the Middle East, the world’s second-largest and fastest-growing arms market, as a way to boost its exports.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Nathan Stock, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the government shakeup in Algeria, Egyptian President el-Sissi’s visit to Washington, rocket attacks from Gaza, Imran Khan’s war against poverty, and a $69 billion merger between Saudi Arabia’s oil and chemical giants.
Monday Briefing | Iraq: Outreach abroad, but troubles at home
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi’s first foreign trip to Egypt, the future threat posed by ISIS, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s AIPAC meeting in Washington, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Lebanon.
Lavrov’s Gulf trip highlights Russia’s growing regional role
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a four-day trip to the Gulf in early March, stopping in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE as part of a broader effort to boost Moscow’s ties with the region. Although the Gulf monarchies are traditionally considered of some of the U.S’s closest allies, relations between Russia and the Gulf have improved in recent years and there is potential for further cooperation going forward.
On March 7 President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that Turkey’s decision to buy the Russian S-400 missile defense system is irrevocable. His remarks underlined Turkey’s strategic decision to turn away from NATO as a genuine partnership.
Perhaps the most immediate challenge facing the Syrian Democratic Forces is what to do with the influx of ISIS members and their families that have poured out of ISIS’s last stronghold, particularly since February 2019.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Robert S. Ford, Marvin G. Weinbaum, James P. Farwell, Emadeddin Badi, Guney Yildiz, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s visit to Baghdad, reconstruction efforts in Syria, the crackdown on militant Islamists in Pakistan, Iran’s cyber attack capabilities, upcoming elections in Libya, Turkish-Egyptian tensions, and Qatar’s $12B loan from bond markets.
Both the U.S. State Department and the American intelligence community have concluded that President Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy toward Iran is not working. Yet, Trump seems determined to carry on. To achieve its stated goal of changing Iran’s policies, the U.S. should adopt a more proportional approach that focuses on Tehran’s most threatening actions, such as its ballistic missile tests.
General Hifter’s southern strategy and the repercussions of the Fezzan campaign
The Libyan National Army (LNA) loyal to General Khalifa Hifter has launched a military operation to capture the Fezzan region in Libya’s southwest. While the move seems to have garnered significant international and regional support, it is unclear what the implications of this operation may be for the country’s fragile stability and the country’s dialogue-based political process.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
