The economic stress points vary considerably across the Gulf. Assuming a resumption of exports by May, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and Qatar still face sharply declining revenues and contracting GDP—as much as 14 percent in Kuwait and Qatar—because of shut ins, time to restart, and lack of alternative delivery routes. After the Iranian attacks on Ras Laffan, Qatar’s economic outlook and time to recovery look much more difficult.
The US and Israeli conflict with Iran is currently just past the halfway mark, according to US President Donald Trump’s initial estimate that it would take four to six weeks to achieve his objectives, but for now there is no end in sight. Here are five fundamental, strategic questions that require more attention as the media and political debates fixate on the day-to-day breaking news and tactics of this war.
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