When Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was toppled late last year, it looked like a golden opportunity for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. For more than a decade, the war next door had burdened Ankara with problems that it could not fix: millions of Syrian refugees straining domestic politics, U.S.-backed Kurdish militias entrenching along Turkey’s border, and a battlefield dominated by Russian and Iranian influence that left Ankara exposed to Moscow’s and Tehran’s whims.

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