2019 was a tough year for the Islamic Republic. It began as the impact of U.S. sanctions started to bite and ended with the worst crackdown since 1979. About 300 protesters, mostly from outside of Tehran, were killed in a historic nationwide mobilization. The regime’s harsh response clearly shows it to be in a state of panic. It has every right to be: All indicators suggest that the Islamic Republic has lost the trust of the vast majority of Iranians. Meanwhile, with Iran’s oil exports at record lows, even the previous model of patronage that kept segments of society pacified is unsustainable. With a widening budget deficit and many pockets of angry groups, from aggrieved workers and teachers to pensioners and students, the regime expected street-level protests throughout 2019. And when they finally came, it chose to respond with unprecedented violence. The security forces, led by the Revolutionary Guards, killed more protesters in seven days than they did during the seven months of protests by the Green opposition movement in 2009. In this bloody crackdown, there was no daylight between the so-called “moderates” and “hardliners.” All factions within the regime backed the crackdown, which can be said to be the final nail in the coffin of the reformist movement. That the Islamic Republic cannot reform itself is in fact the key headline of 2019. And yet, the exiled Iranian opposition, despite deep anger, remained fragmented. The opposition in diaspora still needs to agree on a basic common vision and blueprint for the future of Iran.
In the realm of foreign policy, Tehran stayed largely within the framework of the 2015 nuclear deal even as it escalated a process of gradually cutting back on its nuclear commitments. Tehran stayed in the deal because it has no good alternative: It wants to keep the Europeans on side even as the EU states all but followed the U.S. lead and ended trade with Iran. And the Iranian regime kept looking for an opportune moment to begin talks with the Trump administration. Not a photo opportunity, as Iranian President Hassan Rouhani put it, but a genuine and sustainable deal that can lift the crippling sanctions off Tehran’s back. That proved to be illusive in 2019. But the Islamic Republic is in a bind and the sanctions are its Achilles’ heel. A deal with Trump will not endear the Islamic Republic to its people but it will buy it some time.
Alex Vatanka is a Senior Fellow at MEI who specializes in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran.
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