Iulia Joja interviews Henry Sokolski, the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, about how tactical nuclear weapons might play into Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine strategy.
What are tactical nuclear weapons and how many do Russia and NATO have?
Tactical nuclear weapons have yields that range from a fraction of a kiloton upward to 50 kilotons or more. The bomb dropped on Nagasaki had a yield of 20 kilotons. Tactical weapons are designed to be used in regional wars and can have standoff ranges measured in tens to hundreds of kilometers. The United States has about 100 tactical weapons stored in Italy, Germany, Turkey, Belgium, and the Netherlands. All of these are B-61 gravity bombs that fit on fighter bombers stationed within NATO. Russia is believed to have roughly 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons, which have a yield from several kilotons to over 100 kilotons. The Russians are most likely to deliver these warheads with a variety of missiles that they currently use to deliver conventional high explosives.
Is fear about tactical nuclear weapons all hype? What is a sober assessment of the current situation and a decent forecast of at least the next weeks?
Fear of Putin using nuclear weapons is not all hype but, in the short run, it mostly is and for the simplest of reasons: Russia stores its theater nuclear warheads separately from its delivery systems at 12 national sites. In anticipation of use, Russia would move these warheads from these national sites to one or more of 34 forward bases that are much closer to operational fronts. Although Russia has moved nuclear-capable bombers closer to the front, so far, Western intelligence have seen no movements from Russia’s nuclear storage sites.
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