For oil producers in the Middle East, mounting external pressure from trade tensions, tariffs, and oil sanctions presents headwinds to government revenue and regional stability. Oil production is becoming a battle for market share rather than a collective effort to increase prices. We can identify three key effects for oil producers in the Middle East entering a period of heightened trade tensions and a potential global economic slowdown: (1) the Middle East-Asia interdependency will make both sides suffer a downturn, (2) competition over market share will disadvantage weaker regional producers, (3) access to capital and borrowing will define how countries can weather a longer downturn in oil prices. For policymakers in the Gulf, maintaining a close eye on key export markets in Asia may present further opportunities for trade and investment agreements with a longer-term perspective.
Read more in the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
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