What it means when nine nations bomb in the Middle East in two weeks

Even seasoned observers of the Middle East are having difficulty keeping track of the flood of missile attacks and air strikes in the region in the last two weeks. To recap:

• Jordan conducted an airstrike on Syria, aimed at what Amman described as facilities of illegal drug smugglers.

• Iran fired missiles at Pakistan, targeting what Tehran claimed were camps of anti-government Iranian rebels who seek independence for the Baluch region of Iran.

• Israel fired missiles at a building in southwestern Damascus, Syria, killing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) chief of Intelligence in Syria and his deputy.

• Yemen’s Houthi terrorist group, the de facto government in the northern region and capital city Sanna, repeatedly fired Iranian-supplied missiles and directed drones at international shipping in the Red Sea, stating that such attacks were in support of Palestinians in Gaza.

• Iran fired missiles into Syria at what it said were facilities of the terrorist group ISIS, which Tehran blamed for suicide bombings in Iran during the memorial service for an Iranian leader who was killed four years ago by a US drone attack in Baghdad.

• The United States and United Kingdom conducted repeated air strikes and missile attacks on Yemen, targeting Houthi radars, airbases, and missile launching facilities, in response to Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.

• Iran fired missiles into Iraq’s Kurdistan region, targeting what it said were Israeli intelligence offices.

• Pakistan fired missiles into Iran in what Islamabad said was retaliation for the Iranian attacks, but targeting a Baluch independence group.

• Palestine’s Hamas terrorist group continued rocket attacks on Israel, despite Israeli army occupation of most of Gaza.

• Israel continued air strikes on Palestinian Gaza, which it has been attacking for over three months.

• The United States conducted a strike in Iraq on leaders of Harkat al-Nujaba, an Iranian-backed terrorist group, which Washington blamed for repeated attacks on US military camps in Iraq and Syria that support American operations against the terrorist group ISIS.

• Lebanese Hezbollah, a terrorist group and part of the Beirut government backed by Iran, has conducted repeated rocket attacks and precision missile strikes on Israel.

• Israel has shelled, bombed, and struck Lebanon with drones and air strikes, hitting both Hezbollah targets and, perhaps unintentionally, units of the Lebanese military.

In case you weren’t counting, that was nine nations (including terrorist groups that are de facto governments) attacking other countries in the region over the course of about two weeks. Numerous commentators have drawn the conclusion that a regional war is already underway or soon will be. That risk is real, largely because Iran is attempting to pressure Israel through Iranian proxies it calls the Axis of Resistance (Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Palestine, and terrorist groups in Syria, Iraq, and Bahrain).

Hezbollah has been trying to find a level of attacks it can conduct against Israel without provoking a massive Israeli response and invasion of southern Lebanon. (The Israeli government is apparently split on whether the attacks have already been enough to require an invasion to clear out southern Lebanon of Hezbollah missile launchers.) Conversely, the Houthis have kept up attempted attacks on international shipping and US Navy warships seemingly with the intention of provoking US retaliatory strikes.

The governments in Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran appear to have at least one thing in common right now: they all wish to avoid a full-scale regional war that would involve US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Yet it may come, by miscalculation or provocations conducted by factions seeking such a conflict.

If that major regional war does come, it will be world changing, shaking up the US and global economies, affecting elections and alliances. Therefore, avoiding it is now a paramount goal of the Biden administration.

There are many lessons that can be drawn from this perilous moment in the Middle East. Two of them that now seem obvious involve US policy. First, the policy begun in the Obama administration, of reducing US involvement in the region and “pivoting” away to East Asia was a major mistake. President Barack Obama and some of his closest advisors thought that the US was only capable of making things worse by its involvement in the region. They blamed “the blob” of the US national security cadre for the mistakes of the political appointees of the George W. Bush administration, unable to distinguish between professionals and hacks.

Second and related, the US made the mistake of allowing “sleeping dogs to lay,” not trying hard to address the core and root issues in the region, such as the need to create a Palestinian state or the necessity of stopping the Iranian destabilization effort through its creation of a regional network of armed militias. That inaction or inadequate attention allowed matters to get worse, bringing us to where we are today.

As Michael Corleone said in the Godfather movie, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” The mistake was thinking that the United States could ever get out or reduce its role in the Middle East, trying to ignore the region’s problems, and failing to play the role of the indispensable nation. Like it or not, the problems of the Middle East affect us here in America. They are our problems too and they will only lessen if we actively partner with our friends in the region to seek stability and solutions that will last.

Richard A. Clarke served for 30 years in US government national security agencies, including the Pentagon, the State Department, and the White House National Security Council. Mr. Clarke also previously served as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Middle East Institute. 

Photo by Ammar Ghali/Anadolu via Getty Images