Unconditional surrender of an adversary is possible only if the victor conducts unconditional war, which the American public clearly was not prepared for in the conflict with Iran. Ending this conflict was always going to entail some compromises. The U.S.-Iran MOU is being oversold by virtually everyone. The tangible parts of it are a ceasefire, sanctions relief for Iran and the reopening of Hormuz. Everything else in the agreement is conditioned to good faith negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. The dirty truth is oil sanctions on Iran have not been effectively in force since 2021, so while the symbolic gain is real, the change in the equation is not much. We should also broaden our analytical scope, and recall how far Iranian power has fallen since October, 2023. Back then, Iran controlled the pace of events through much of the Middle East and held sway in Beirut, Baghdad, Sana’a, and Gaza. Gulf states were hedging their approaches to Tehran, given the absence of any apparent American strategy to deal with the Iranian menace. Since then, no American president has done more to degrade Iran’s capabilities — including enrichment — than Donald Trump.
Despite the concessions and gaps in the MOU, Iran is not emerging on top. Its ability to project power throughout the Middle East is severely degraded. The attacks on Gulf energy and civilian infrastructure have won them many permanent enemies, not just in the palaces of amirs but in the streets of ordinary people. Their recent salvoes of missiles and drones have been a pale reflection of what they could do just last year. Their proxies need Iranian help to avoid annihilation, not the other way around.
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