April 6, 2021
10:00 am - 11:00 am


The next decade will see significant shifts in the security, energy, infrastructure, trade, and other geopolitical dynamics in the Black Sea region. There are no givens as to how these dynamics will play out. U.S. strategy for the region must consider a range of assumptions about the future. MEI’s Frontier Europe Initiative recently published a report describing four alternative future scenarios to prompt decision-makers and stakeholders to consider possibilities they might not otherwise consider. This panel will discuss some of the provocative ideas in those scenarios, and the implications if they were to emerge in reality in the years to come.

What could lead Black Sea nations to look to the east as well as the west for security and other strategic partnerships? How might such a “multi-tier” model for EU and NATO membership impact security and economic development in the region? What are alternative approaches for groups of nations to bring “all of government” capacities to bear on “grey zone” and “hybrid” warfare? Please join us as we consider some important “what if’s?” to provide a basis for a more robust strategy for U.S. engagement in the Black Sea region.


Gen. (ret.) Philip Breedlove
Distinguished chair, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI; distinguished professor, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Tech University

Giselle Donnelly
Resident fellow, Defense and National Security, American Enterprise Institute

Iulia-Sabina Joja
Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI; adjunct professor, Georgetown University

Steven Kenney, moderator
Founder and principal, Foresight Vector; non-resident scholar, Strategic Foresight Initiative, MEI 

Photo by Alexei Druzhinin/TASS via Getty Images