A lightning offensive by Syrian rebel groups toppled the Assad regime in less than two weeks, marking the end of a decades-long brutal and oppressive dictatorship. Though many across the country welcome the departure of President Bashar al-Assad, there remains a strong sense of uncertainty about the future. While the leading faction within the victorious opposition forces, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is moving quickly to consolidate power, outside actors are jockeying to influence the outcome and build relations with the embryonic new government or taking steps to degrade its potential to pose a security threat. To discuss where developments in Syria and the broader region are headed as well as how the incoming US administration may tackle the associated challenges and opportunities starting next year, the Middle East Institute will be hosting an expert panel discussion.
The panelists will explore the following questions and more: How were the rebel groups able to make such rapid battlefield gains amidst a perceived “stalemate” in the civil war? Can the international community still halt HTS’s consolidation of power or influence its approach to governance; or could its unilateral takeover of state institutions and policies trigger domestic opposition or even renewed internecine conflict? Will ISIS and other terrorist organizations exploit the present turmoil to regroup or make gains? How do these developments impact the surrounding region, including Turkey’s stance, Iraq’s and Lebanon’s stability, Russia’s military presence, and the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance? And finally, can the United States “stay out” of Syria; and if not, what leverage will it have to shape the fast-moving geostrategic developments?
Speakers:
Wael Alzayat
CEO, Emgage Foundation; Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute
Nimrod Goren
Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs, Middle East Institute
Charles Lister
Senior Fellow, Director of Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism Programs, Middle East Institute
Paul Salem
Vice President for International Engagement, Middle East Institute
Gönül Tol
Director of Turkey Program, Middle East Institute
Brian Katulis (Moderator)
Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy, Middle East Institute
Extended Speaker Biographies:
Wael Alzayat is CEO of Emgage Foundation, a national civic education and engagement grassroots organization for Muslim Americans. Alzayat previously served with distinction as a U.S. Middle East policy expert at the U.S. Department of State for ten years, including as senior policy advisor to U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power, Syria outreach coordinator with Ambassador Robert Ford, and special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Iraq James Jeffrey. Alzayat has long been a passionate advocate for protecting fundamental American values and freedoms, and increasing the civic engagement of minority communities. Alzayat was recently named Top 10 Inspiring Arab Americans Leaders by the Huffington Post.
Nimrod Goren is the President and Founder of Mitvim - The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, Co-Founder of Diplomeds - The Council for Mediterranean Diplomacy, and Co-Chair of a regional initiative at President Isaac Herzog's Israeli Climate Forum. Nimrod holds a Ph.D. in Middle Eastern Studies from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and was a Hubert Humphrey Fellow at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. He was a Teaching Fellow on Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University, and has also worked at the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies and the Nehemia Levtzion Center for Islamic Studies. Nimrod is a past recipient of the Victor J. Goldberg Prize for Peace in the Middle East and the Centennial Medal of the Institute of International Education, and was selected as a Vamik Volkan Scholar by the International Dialogue Initiative. He serves on the steering committees of the Geneva Initiative and the Turkish-Israeli Civil Society Forum, and is a member of the Global Diplomacy Lab. Nimrod's fields of expertise include Israel’s foreign policy and regional relations, as well as the Middle East peace process.
Charles Lister is a senior fellow and the Director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute. His work focuses on all-things Syria and on issues of terrorism and insurgency across the Levant. Within MEI, Lister currently directs two major international initiatives focused on Syria: Resolving the Detainee Crisis in collaboration with the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR) and the Syria Strategy Project in collaboration with the Atlantic Council and the European Institute of Peace. Prior to joining MEI, Lister was a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Qatar and a Senior Consultant to the multinationally-backed Syria Track II Dialogue Initiative, in which he managed nearly three years of intensive face-to-face engagement with the leaderships of over 100 Syrian armed opposition groups. He has previously held other positions at the Brookings Institution and at IHS Jane’s in London, UK. Lister is a Consultant to the United Nations' International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM) for Syria and a regular consultant and expert witness in counter-terrorism prosecutions and with law enforcement bodies in the United States, Europe and Australia.
Paul Salem is the Vice President for International Engagement. He served previously as MEI’s President and CEO. He is currently based in the Middle East and works on building partnerships throughout the region. His research focuses on issues of political change, transition, and conflict as well as the regional and international relations of the Middle East. Salem is a frequent commentator on US and international media, and is the author and editor of a number of books and reports including Escaping the Conflict Trap: Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East (ed. with Ross Harrison, MEI 2019); Winning the Battle, Losing the War: Addressing the Conditions that Fuel Armed Non State Actors (ed. with Charles Lister, MEI 2019); From Chaos to Cooperation: Toward Regional Order in the Middle East (ed. with Ross Harrison, MEI 2017), Broken Orders: The Causes and Consequences of the Arab Uprisings (In Arabic, 2013), Thinking Arab Futures: Drivers, scenarios, and strategic choices for the Arab World, The Cairo Review Spring 2019; Bitter Legacy: Ideology and Politics in the Arab World (1994), and Conflict Resolution in the Arab World (ed., 1997). Prior to joining MEI, Salem was the founding director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, Lebanon between 2006 and 2013. From 1999 to 2006, he was director of the Fares Foundation and in 1989-1999 founded and directed the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, Lebanon's leading public policy think tank.
Gönül Tol is the founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program and a senior fellow with the Black Sea Program. She is the author of Erdogan's War: A Strongman's Struggle at Home and in Syria. She has taught courses at George Washington University’s Institute for Middle East Studies and at the College of International Security Affairs at the National Defense University on Turkey, Islamist movements in Western Europe, world politics, and the Middle East. She has written extensively on Turkey-U.S. relations, Turkish domestic politics, and foreign policy and the Kurdish issue. She is a frequent media commentator.
Brian Katulis is Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy at the Middle East Institute. He was formerly a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress (CAP), where he built the Center’s Middle East program and also worked on broader issues related to U.S. national security. He has produced influential studies that have shaped important discussions around regional policy, often providing expert testimony to key congressional committees on his findings. Katulis has also conducted extensive research in countries such as Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. His past experience includes work at the National Security Council and the U.S. Departments of State and Defense.
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