The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing titled 'The Debate Inside Israel' on Tuesday, November 21st, 2023, featuring Eran Etzion, former Deputy Head of Israel's National Security Council, and Nimrod Goren, MEI Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs. The briefing delved into the growing internal debate in Israel over the country’s war aims and its handling of the conflict with Hamas, including discussions on calls for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation, the effectiveness of the war cabinet, and the response to the October 7 Hamas attack.
Speakers
Eran Etzion
Non-resident Scholar, MEI
Nimrod Goren
Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs, MEI
Rachel Dooley (Moderator)
Deputy Director of Communications
Transcript
The following transcript was automatically generated and may contain errors.
00:00:00:12 - 00:00:28:20
Rachel Dooley
Welcome, everyone. I'm Rachel Dooley, the deputy director of communications at the Middle East Institute. Thanks for joining us today for this on the record briefing on the Israeli government's handling of the war with Hamas. This morning, we'll also touch on reporting from Haaretz of a potential, although unfinalized, deal for the release of 150 Palestinians in exchange for 50 Israeli hostages as well as a four day pause in fighting.
00:00:28:22 - 00:00:54:07
Rachel Dooley
I'm joined by my two distinguished colleagues at MEI, Eran Etzion, the former Israeli deputy national security adviser and an MEI nonresident scholar, and Nimrod Goren, MEI senior fellow on Israeli affairs. We'll be hearing from them on domestic calls for Benjamin Netanyahu to resign, the effectiveness of the newly established war cabinet, and the impact of growing international pressure on Israel for a cease fire.
00:00:54:09 - 00:01:10:00
Rachel Dooley
When we get to the Q&A portion, you can use the raise hand function on your screen to ask a question. And if you are called on, we will unmute you and then you can introduce yourself and direct your question to one of our panelists. I'll go over this again later as well. But for now, let's get right into it.
00:01:10:06 - 00:01:19:06
Rachel Dooley
We're going to turn to Eran first. Eran, where do things stand now, especially as it relates to the hostage deal?
00:01:19:08 - 00:01:46:08
Eran Etzion
Hi, everyone. Very good to be here. I'm going to make five quick points in terms of what I think are the key questions and issues to to look into as this war progresses and hopefully grinds to a halt at some point in the not too distant future. One is, assuming there's going to be this first hostage deal with a cease fire.
00:01:46:10 - 00:02:12:16
Eran Etzion
The question is going to be there's going to be a series of, shall we say, smaller questions regarding the actual execution of this deal. All sorts of minute details. How many indeed will be released, how many held by Hamas? To what extent will Hamas be able to prove, quote unquote, that it really holds certain individuals and then produce them and produce them how?
00:02:12:18 - 00:02:47:12
Eran Etzion
And do all this under a cease fire, which obviously is not going to be too stable. It's not easy to to control, not on their side and not even on our side. And then how long is it actually going to take, even if there is an agreement on, say, four or five days of pause or does not even going to be the same terminology, because Hamas is obviously interested in this becoming an extended cease fire and Israel is interested in this becoming as short as possible a pause in order to allow it to continue fighting afterwards.
00:02:47:14 - 00:02:58:21
Eran Etzion
So that's point number one, the cease fire and what it will entail and to what extent it actually be extended, under what circumstances, to what extent will the deal be actually executed and so on.
00:02:58:23 - 00:03:20:00
Eran Etzion
The second point, has to do with Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran and the US. And obviously it has been an overarching question from the very beginning of this of this war, but it's going to be sharpened in the coming days, Again, assuming we're going into this deal in the cease fire, what is actually going to happen with Hezbollah in Lebanon?
00:03:20:02 - 00:03:43:23
Eran Etzion
It is not beholden to whatever agreement Hamas and Israel will come to wtih the good services of Qatar as a mediator. Will it continue to engage Israel? And what will Israel do? And this is obviously just a small question and just the broader question of what will happen in that arena in the short to medium term in the context of this war.
00:03:44:04 - 00:04:19:08
Eran Etzion
So that's the second question. The third is the stability of the Israeli government because of the controversial nature of the war of the government of the ten months before the war and of of the hostage deal, which is also obviously a hot button issue in Israel. Will the government hold on or will there be either a move from the right wing, from the extreme right wing, because of their disagreement with the actual deal or from the other side of the aisle for whatever reason?
00:04:19:10 - 00:04:44:19
Eran Etzion
And the stability of the government is obviously going to come under fire and under question. Point number four is the achievability of the war goals, both in terms of releasing all the hostages as obviously only the civilians will be released now, hopefully, if indeed there is a deal, and it's not even clear if all the civilians will be released and certainly no soldiers will be released.
00:04:44:22 - 00:05:11:12
Eran Etzion
So at least 100 soldiers more or less will continue to be in captivity. And the question is, will and how would they be released? This is one of the war goals. And the second is collapsing Hamas's military capabilities and government capabilities in order to eliminate its control of the Gaza Strip. To what extent is that feasible, within what timeframe, within under which costs, and so on and so forth?
00:05:11:13 - 00:05:40:19
Eran Etzion
That's the fourth point. And the fifth and last one, which the US has been kind of pushing from day one, and rightfully so, is the so-called day after. Even if the two war goals are achieved, let's let's assume for a second that they will be achieved within a reasonable timeframe. What about the day after? What is Israel's plan? And so on and so forth. And we know it's already a bone of contention between Israel and the US and will continue to be so. That's it.
00:05:40:21 - 00:05:53:18
Rachel Dooley
Thank you, Eran. Turning to Nimrod, we know there is a war cabinet meeting coming up at 11 a.m. this morning, DC time. What might we expect from that meeting and where do you see things now?
00:05:53:20 - 00:06:16:08
Nimrod Goren
So this is an important moment because people were waiting for progress on the hostages release for quite a while. But I think we try to assess the debate within Israel regarding the war we can take into account a broader element that relates to the mindset of the public, to the political developments, to prospects for advancement of a two state solution the day after and what does that all mean to the resilience of Israeli-Arab relations?
00:06:16:08 - 00:06:39:16
Nimrod Goren
And we touched very briefly on these issues at the beginning, and then we can expand on that. You know, first, the Israeli public seems to acknowledge that policies and concepts that were in place for the last years regarding the Palestinian issue did not deliver or even failed, including the de facto empowerment of Hamas and the division between the West Bank and Gaza, and setting Israeli interests and overall sidelining of the Palestinian issue.
00:06:39:18 - 00:07:07:06
Nimrod Goren
Israeli society is currently mobilizing to support those in need. A lot of concern about the fate of the hostages, but also kind of soul searching about what went wrong. And when people ask themselves what went wrong? They turn to the political level. And Netanyahu is definitely within a very, very large majority of Israeliss is held responsible for the failure not only the failure of October seven, but also the failure of his policies before and also the failure of his conduct after October 7th.
00:07:07:06 - 00:07:26:15
Nimrod Goren
Because the way Netanyahu has been engaging with the public, with the hostage families is not seen as effective and is seen as mostly focused on his own political survival. So Israelis seem to be ripe for political change. And there's a small paradox there. When people ideologically go a bit more to the right at times of war.
00:07:26:17 - 00:07:49:16
Nimrod Goren
According to the polls, the one who is benefiting politically is the centrist leader, Benny Gantz. People may seem more at ease with a former chief of staff leading the country next, but we don't know that yet. On the Israeli Palestinian front, a lot of pessimism on what the future holds, but some major obstacles have prevented progress to the two state solution could be dismantled in the day after, including the divide between the West Bank and Gaza.
00:07:49:17 - 00:08:11:21
Nimrod Goren
Leadership changes in Israel, in the Palestinian Authority level of international involvement that is on the rise in closer linkage between Israel and Arab organizations and issues related to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Though there is some hope for positive progress if things are still towards that direction. And finally, on Israeli-Arab relations, we see quite a bit of resilience during the last month and a half or so.
00:08:11:23 - 00:08:35:11
Nimrod Goren
Relations have not been cut. Some of them have been either frozen or with ambassadors recalled for confrontation. A lot of criticism in the Arab public on what Israel is doing. But on the leadership level, there seems to be a acknowledgment of the interest still in place of having good relations with Israel and willingness to engage with Israel, even in tough conditions.
00:08:35:13 - 00:08:57:15
Rachel Dooley
All right. At this point we’ll welcome questions from our participants. You can use the raise hand function on your screen. And then when we call on you, we will unmute you and you can go ahead and introduce yourself and your organization and then direct your question to one of our panelists. And if you have a question and you're not called on first, please go ahead and leave your hand up throughout the time. I'll get started.
00:08:57:17 - 00:09:20:04
Rachel Dooley
I've been sent a few questions from some journalists who could not attend. The first is from Jay Solomon at Semafor. The Biden administration is demanding Hamas surrender the leaders behind October 7th. Has Israel thought of a legal way to handle Hamas’s leadership? Because so far they've only discussed assassinations. Eran, I'll turn to you on that first, and then Nimrod.
00:09:20:06 - 00:09:50:22
Eran Etzion
Interesting question, but I'm not sure it's such an unprecedented challenge. You know, we have our judicial system. There are perhaps some interesting legalities in terms of under which indictments, exactly will they be charged and so on and so forth. And there are already calls in Israel to charge them under all sorts of unique clauses that were only used against Nazi perpetrators in the past, such as Eichmann and others.
00:09:50:24 - 00:10:22:23
Eran Etzion
So that might be an issue. Maybe that's what what the question is alluding to. There is the beginning of a discussion of that. And then there is the question of the death penalty that was discussed yesterday in a very contentious debate in the Knesset. It is a proposition proposed by the extreme right in Israel, so-called Jewish Power, the kind of Kahana-like faction in the Knesset that have been pushing it for years, and now see an opportunity to advance it.
00:10:23:00 - 00:11:01:11
Eran Etzion
But I don't see it advancing too much and certainly not being enacted into law. So in a scenario in which we get hold of these perpetrators, they will be tried in Israel like, you know, other terrorists have been. Yes, with the caveat of potentially using some of the old clauses that were initially directed at the Nazi perpetrators, war criminals and so on. But they will be tried and sentenced.
00:11:01:13 - 00:11:02:04
Rachel Dooley
Nimrod?
00:11:02:06 - 00:11:23:01
Nimrod Goren
Beyond this legal assessment, I think the victory over Hamas in terms of the Israeli war objective is not seen as primarily a legal one. I think it's about the military and governing capabilities. And those could be reached via other tools, you know, whether it's during the war when or whether there is a model in which Hamas leadership is no longer in Gaza.
00:11:23:03 - 00:11:35:20
Nimrod Goren
So I think that the legal aspect will be part of the long process maybe that will follow. But in terms of Israeli reaching its objective, I don't think that would be the major component of it.
00:11:35:22 - 00:11:50:04
Rachel Dooley
Okay. Thank you. I have another question from Julian Borger at The Guardian. Who gets to say when this ends? Who declares victory in the Israeli establishment? Same order, Eran, I'll go to you first.
00:11:50:06 - 00:12:25:05
Eran Etzion
George W Bush, of course, it's an interesting question. Again, I first of all, I think that as long as Netanyahu is in power, his whole incentive scheme goes against stopping the war and actually pushes towards extending the war as much as possible. The way right now, the the expectations of the Israeli public opinion, the Israeli political system and to an extent even the international system is framed.
00:12:25:07 - 00:12:48:04
Eran Etzion
It is there's a wide consensus, and Nimrod spoke a little bit about it earlier, that the minute the war stops, the actual fighting stops, Then the political process of removing Netanyahu and replacing Netanyahu begins. So he has a clear interest in pushing this date as far ahead as possible. And he has many instruments to do exactly that.
00:12:48:06 - 00:13:18:24
Eran Etzion
So that's point number one. Point number two. There is obviously the American administration that has its own political timetable. Strategic timetable. It is very concerned about the possibility of the war expanding and deteriorating into a regional war, something that they're desperately trying to prevent. And there are elements in Israel who are pushing at the other direction. So there's going to be an interest by the Americans to cut this relatively short.
00:13:18:24 - 00:13:41:21
Eran Etzion
Yes, they want Hamas to be annihilated as much as possible, but I'm not sure. And that's a different discussion, you know, to what extent this is an achievable goal. But there's going to be a discussion between the highest echelons of the American administration and the highest echelons of the Israeli administration on what are the terms and conditions for ending this.
00:13:41:23 - 00:13:59:05
Eran Etzion
So I guess the short answer to this interesting question is it's going to be called by the American president, and we know who he's going to be. And the Israeli prime minister. And we don't necessarily know who he is going to be.
00:13:59:07 - 00:14:21:19
Nimrod Goren
And it's kind of a sequence we can see we can foresee several phases of these events going on and further as Eran mentioned the issue of containing the regional aspect of the war, not seeing spillover into other fronts especially the northern front. That's one aspect. The second is the current scale of the Israeli military operation, which is high scale and which may dwindle down later on.
00:14:21:19 - 00:14:51:21
Nimrod Goren
So a transition from one phase to another will be when the current scope of these elements actually stopped. But then there will still be probably Israeli security action in and outside of Gaza. So the military operation will not stop with an end of war declaration, but having an Israeli presence somewhere along the border with Gaza in and out may continue even once the level is different and then we will enter this transition period in which a new regional realities of the day after would be formed, and that would involve regional international actors.
00:14:52:02 - 00:15:23:16
Nimrod Goren
That would take time, but still probably involve some actions on the ground by the IDF. And therefore it also relates to Israeli domestic political debate. And you mentioned emergency World Cabinet at the beginning. When do those political actors from this annual position decided to enter the coalition, decide that now is the time to exit, even if some sort of fighting still continues, informing the Israeli perspective, that will signal that it's time for a possible political transition. And the political debate is now ripe for that.
00:15:23:18 - 00:15:50:08
Eran Etzion
I just want to add another point, because we both did not speak about the Palestinian side of this. And it is also an intriguing point. There are several scenarios. But generally speaking, there is a scenario in which Hamas’s leadership is decapitated or runs away or whatever is now no longer a factor. And then, you know, who exactly is in a position on the Palestinian side to call the end of this?
00:15:50:10 - 00:16:22:21
Eran Etzion
That's an that's one scenario. The other is that they're still there and they're still operating. And first of all, this is this runs against the Israeli war goals. So you see that there's a certain contradiction built into this. The whole whole Hamas upper echelons need to be, you know, either extricated, you know, deceased, fleeing away or whatnot. Well, that's that's one aspect of it.
00:16:22:21 - 00:16:44:22
Eran Etzion
And that's a clear Israeli goal. And the other is, you know, if we want to end this, we need to end this vis-a-vis somebody. And and that's going to be a question, of course, Iran will have an interest in making the, for example, Islamic Jihad, which is a significant contingent within Gaza militarily and and on the ground.
00:16:44:24 - 00:17:04:14
Eran Etzion
So I can certainly see a situation in which, you know, even if Hamas is neutralized, you still have Islamic Jihad and Iran pushing it. So I think that's going to be a major question in almost every scenario. Who exactly is able to call this the end on the Palestinian side?
00:17:04:16 - 00:17:12:16
Rachel Dooley
Great. Thank you. I see we have a question from Steven Erlanger, who has his hand raised at The New York Times. Steven.
00:17:12:18 - 00:17:51:13
Steven Erlanger (NYT)
Hi, thank you both. Two questions, if I may, rather related. One. If there is a cease fire of some kind, you can call it a pause, if you like. 3 to 5. Do you think there's really anxiety about starting it all up again or will the pressure be too high? Is that a big concern? And the second concern is simply the way Israel has stated its goals. I mean, if Hamas survives in any way, it wins, doesn't it? Thank you.
00:17:51:15 - 00:17:56:01
Eran Etzion
Can you clarify the first question? I'm not sure I got it.
00:17:56:03 - 00:18:20:15
Steven Erlanger (NYT)
Well, the first question is if there's a pause. Right, for some hostages to come out and we'll see how it goes. Is there concern that the IDF will not be able to resume the operation, the campaign in Gaza, in quite the way it is doing now? I mean, they may even have to allow, oh, my God, journalists in.
00:18:20:16 - 00:18:41:18
Eran Etzion
Right, I spoke about that at the beginning. And that's certainly a hot button issue now in Israel. And so I'm going to be it's virtually I think the cabinet is now in session. And then, you know, we have now a war cabinet and the statutory cabinet and then the full government, and they're all now in session one after another.
00:18:41:20 - 00:19:07:11
Eran Etzion
So that's certainly going to be an issue because Netanyahu and the military and Galon, the defense minister will say, you know, we'll be very staunch about this. Yes. This is a 3 to 5 days pause and immediately after we will resume the war effort. And there's no question about it whatsoever. But we all know and they know that it's not going to be as simple as that.
00:19:07:13 - 00:19:34:00
Eran Etzion
So definitely there is concern it will affect again the right wing parties within the Cabinet and the right wing elements in the wider Israeli public opinion, the kind of the deep right who are against the deal and will say, you know, we mustn't do it because the actual significance of doing the deal is stopping the war and stopping short of achieving our goals.
00:19:34:02 - 00:20:02:23
Eran Etzion
So it's absolutely an issue that's going to be a major issue in the coming days. And I have to say they're right because there is going to be a question, regardless of what's written in the deal and regardless of who says what. You know, the dynamic on the on the dynamics on the ground and I spoke a little bit about at the beginning, including the minute details of exactly executing the deal and preparing the hostages and releasing them one by one or two by two or whatnot.
00:20:03:00 - 00:20:25:09
Eran Etzion
It's not going to be smooth, probably. And it might create a situation in which we end up having a cease fire of not 3 to 5 days, but, you know, 10 to 15 days and then what? So it's absolutely a valid point. Second, if Hamas survives, does it mean that Israel failed? First of all, depending on who you ask.
00:20:25:11 - 00:20:51:17
Eran Etzion
But certainly there is there was there was and still is a huge buildup by the government vis a vis the Israeli public in terms of the threshold, shall we say, for achieving the war goals. And there is a wide expectation that Hamas will be annihilated, you know, cease to exist certainly as an operating functioning government, military operation and so on.
00:20:51:19 - 00:21:40:19
Eran Etzion
And various experts, myself included, are doubting the feasibility of this. Certainly in the short term. And what is the short term? Weeks, months, possibly even years. So there's definitely going to be I think, the problem there from the government's perspective, even from the IDF perspective. And there's going to be those who will say in a foreseeable kind of probable scenario of this ending, you know, within, I don't know, a month, two months, whatnot, there will be a lot of criticism that, you know, expectations were not met. Hamas is still there. This is not what we were promised and so on and so forth. Absolutely.
00:21:40:21 - 00:22:06:16
Nimrod Goren
In terms of the ceasefire continuing in regards to your question, Steven. You know, Israel is a bit reassured by seeing Western allies supporting principally small objective. So when you hear the American and some European leaders, they are on board with the notion of not enabling Hamas to continue govern Gaza after that is over, so assuming that support will still be in place even after those days of pause.
00:22:06:18 - 00:22:40:13
Nimrod Goren
So in terms of them, the support that is the most important for the Israeli decision maker that will still be in place. In terms of the image issue, you know, journalists coming in, photos going out. A thing we saw in the last week that Israel is willing to absorb the damage to its brand, maybe an international stage in order to adhere to its small objective and expect that to continue, Now there is a problem, maybe with the modality of how this hostage release would be carried out, because it's already known to have the legs, the possibility of extending for additional days.
00:22:40:19 - 00:23:04:12
Nimrod Goren
Every time Hamas is releasing an additional number of hostages, that could lead to spillover of the cease fire for more days than Israel initially expected because what do you do if another day would bring back five more Israelis home? When does that stop given the high number of hostages that are being there? So that's would be a decision, I think, for the Israeli leadership to make, when are things resuming.
00:23:04:17 - 00:23:22:00
Nimrod Goren
And we need to remember that while this positive press that IDF forces within Gaza and having them is static over there for a long period of time, it usually does not mean good things happening.
00:23:22:02 - 00:23:44:02
Rachel Dooley
All right. Thanks to you both. I'll jump in with a question of my own. Eran, you touched on this a bit, but how does Israel's strategy, one, of securing the safe release of hostages and, two, of destroying Hamas completely at times work against each other?
00:23:44:04 - 00:24:36:10
Eran Etzion
Yeah, obviously there is some sort of a contradiction or certainly tension between those two goals. And there is an ongoing debate which is reflected in the Israeli media, the Israeli public discourse, and also in the cabinet rooms in terms of the relations between the war operations, the and the hostage release. To put it simply, it seems to be that the majority of decision makers and this is dominated by the defense minister and the some in the highest echelons of the IDF basically contend that the only chance, the only possibility, the only way hostages might be released is under very heavy military pressure.
00:24:36:16 - 00:25:16:22
Eran Etzion
And if you take that to its logical conclusion, it means that we must continue and even advance further the war effort. And until we get the release of all the hostages, that's the rationale. Such rationale might lead some of them to vote against the actual hostage deal that is now being debated. Because, you know, they would say once we give them the this pause, that might even extend beyond the five days and to ten or 15 days and they will regroup.
00:25:16:24 - 00:25:48:12
Eran Etzion
And as somebody mentioned, you know, journalists would be allowed in. The photos of this horrible destruction of Gaza will make their damage to Israel's credibility, legitimacy and so and so forth. Many bad things will happen that might hamper the military effort. So that's one. And the second is it relates to the calculation of Hamas leadership with respect to the hostages and their own fate as Hamas leadership.
00:25:48:14 - 00:26:23:02
Eran Etzion
And here, again, some are saying that, you know, depending on your estimation of the actual goals and the actual motivations and the actual assessments of the leaders of Hamas right now in Gaza, if they believe that they can survive, they will obviously try to use the trump card of the hostages as much as they can. But what if they come to the conclusion, you know, tomorrow, a week from now or a month from now, that they're not going to survive?
00:26:23:04 - 00:26:52:04
Eran Etzion
Will they have an incentive to keep the hostages alive or to actually execute them ISIS style? And I think the answer is quite clear. But there is an ongoing debate about that. And ultimately, you know, the bottom line, when you look at these two goals and you ask yourself, how do you want to prioritize them and you could arrive at a very different strategy from the one this Israeli government has taken.
00:26:52:04 - 00:27:14:19
Eran Etzion
And this is also reflected somehow in the Israeli public debate. Some are saying, you know, if they really wanted to prioritize hostage release, they would have either not even entered Gaza to begin with in terms of the ground operation. They would stop and they would negotiate. So the hostages, they would release them, and only then would they yes or no.
00:27:14:21 - 00:27:40:13
Eran Etzion
And enter into a ground invasion, whatnot. And same goes for now. You know, if if you want what some in cabinet now are saying, I can safely assume, you know, we must not agree to this small deal because it will stop the war effort. It will incentivize them to continue on fighting and surrendering all the hostages and surrender themselves.
00:27:40:19 - 00:27:57:00
Eran Etzion
And therefore we must push on. And others will say, you know, let's extract as many hostages as we can and then continue the fighting. But the counterargument is going to be, well, you may want to continue the fighting, but you're not going to be able to.
00:27:57:02 - 00:28:05:17
Eran Etzion
So it's a difficult discussion and it's it's certainly an existing tension between those two goals.
00:28:05:19 - 00:28:27:00
Nimrod Goren
There was definitely calls in Israel before the ground operation began for like an all for all formula at the onset. Let's release everyone and let's get it off the table and then have the IDF get the military freedom of action. Apparently, there were some discussions about it of offers made, but it didn't materialize. And then you enter what Eran said about the issue of the pace.
00:28:27:01 - 00:28:56:12
Nimrod Goren
So if they decided to now is you do some humanitarian release of the women of the case of the elderly. What happens to all those others remaining in captive? And you see some of those families going on, the Israeli media saying today those will not be released in the coming days, will never be. Well, that's the fear of those who are not within the category that is being released, because if the assumption is that we are in the same modality of previous cycles of escalation then you could say, okay, so there really isn't those humanitarian issues now.
00:28:56:14 - 00:29:16:17
Nimrod Goren
But then once the violence ends, there will be the big agreement of an additional swap of those who are kind of small within the military age and in matters. But if the assumption is that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war is over, then who do you do that deal with and whether people would still be there to make such an exchange with?
00:29:16:19 - 00:29:37:10
Nimrod Goren
Yes, I think that's a very tough question that Israelis need to tackle at the same time, when there is such a yearning within the Israeli public to see people come home Bring five, bring ten, bring fifty, is the more responsibility. Whoever can be released, let's do it the moment we can.
00:29:37:12 - 00:29:45:03
Rachel Dooley
Thank you both. Looks like we have a raised hand from Peter Coy at The New York Times. Peter, go ahead.
00:29:45:05 - 00:29:59:17
Peter Coy (NYT)
Hi, what is the best case scenario for governance of Gaza after the war is over? And how realistic is that best case scenario?
00:29:59:19 - 00:30:38:00
Eran Etzion
Two good questions. You know, I don't have good enough answers. I can give you my best case scenario, which is obviously not going to be agreed upon by everyone in Israel and certainly not by everyone in government. The best the best case scenario is that you have an agreed strategic framework, kind of a new roadmap in terms of where the whole Gaza situation is going and the whole Israel Palestinian situation is going, including obviously the West Bank, a new road map that speaks about, you know, phase one stabilization of Gaza.
00:30:38:02 - 00:31:31:06
Eran Etzion
Phase two, for example, elections in both Gaza and the West Bank, New revitalized Palestinian leadership, new revitalized Palestinian Authority to use President Biden's term and and negotiations between revitalized Palestinian leadership and hopefully revitalized Israeli leadership as well, with regional involvement, hopefully also by the Saudis, not only the Emirati, it's not only the Egyptians, but also the Saudis. And and then gradually in terms of to to your kind of immediate question about who governs Gaza, in that optimal scenario, there is a mix of revitalized Palestinian Authority, some Arab presence, Egyptian, maybe other as well.
00:31:31:08 - 00:31:59:20
Eran Etzion
But in such a way that Israel deems appropriate or sufficient in terms of its security needs. And that's the tough one, because from the perspective of, you know, if it was other Israelis answering your question, they might have said, you know, the optimal solution is Israeli security control over Gaza. They wouldn't say indefinitely, but they would say in the foreseeable future.
00:31:59:22 - 00:32:23:04
Eran Etzion
Why? Because we cannot trust our security. You know, the kind of they would say the obvious conclusion or suddenly a possible conclusion from October 7th is that we cannot trust anybody with the security of Gaza. And we must do it ourselves. And yes, we don't want civilian control, but we do want security control. And this is obviously already what Netanyahu is preparing the ground for.
00:32:23:06 - 00:32:55:02
Eran Etzion
And a lot of Israelis, including in the IDF, might agree with. And that's going to be a challenge for anybody trying to promote a more strategic, more diplomatic, more comprehensive framework for for conflict resolution. Because, you know, it's we have to admit that there is a real security problem. And those in Israel who say we don't trust anybody else to take care of security, at least in the foreseeable future again, and we have to do it ourselves.
00:32:55:04 - 00:33:09:18
Eran Etzion
Now, that's going to be that's going to be kind of the fight between certainly this Israeli government, but possibly even a future Israeli government, a different one and all the other parties to this conflict.
00:33:09:20 - 00:33:29:03
Nimrod Goren
And recent polling that was done by the Mitvim Institute showed that the most popular option for Israelis either an international presence here in Gaza or an Israeli for control of Gaza now. No, my preferred one is different than that. I think for those whose end goal is seeing a two state solution between Israelis and Palestinians may materialize.
00:33:29:03 - 00:33:53:11
Nimrod Goren
Eventually, the goal is to have the Palestinian Authority go back and go from Gaza. But, you know, acknowledging the difficulties now in having a moderate, capable and legitimate Palestinian leadership that can do that. So that is in one hand a need to do internal domestic revitalization of the P.A.. On the other hand, you need some transition forces of all that actually govern Gaza in the meantime and showing that it's not an easy to control.
00:33:53:11 - 00:34:17:12
Nimrod Goren
So some mix of the Israeli military presence somewhere along the borders, plus some international regional mechanism of all countries are not really happy about going upfront. Would prefer the Palestinian Authority even now to be the one going in with a giant international backing. But I'm not sure the P.A. can do that. And when we look at the transition of leadership in terms of legitimacy in the Palestinian Authority, we need to see elections.
00:34:17:13 - 00:34:43:16
Nimrod Goren
We saw the difficulty of that happening in previous years, and we see the reluctance of many within the Palestinian establishment in doing that and will see reluctantly, I guess, among, you know, Israelis and people in the West about the prospect of Hamas actually being part of such an election or Hamas like candidates organizations. So when elections are necessary for legitimacy in terms of capability to govern, in this reality, it does not seem to be aligned.
00:34:43:18 - 00:35:20:01
Nimrod Goren
And then what people may look at is the modality of maybe 20 years ago when Arafat was besieging [inaudible] and there was some international pressure on him to already put in place a succession plan to indicate who will be the next in line when he is in power to provide some clarity. And perhaps that would be some of the request from Abu Mazen, make sure that in order to bring his legitimacy, that is already spinning out of who may be the next Palestinian leader or leaders that could eventually take over the governing of Gaza.
00:35:20:03 - 00:35:28:09
Rachel Dooley
Great. Thank you both. We'll turn to Courtney Lobel, at MEI who has her hand raised.
00:35:28:11 - 00:35:48:19
Courtney Lobel
Thank you so much for this briefing. I wanted to ask you how among the Israeli general public, not political elites, the U.S. administration is being judged at this time, and President Biden in particular, his statements, his administration's actions by, you know, the mass public in Israel?
00:35:48:21 - 00:36:27:00
Eran Etzion
Well, first of all, I think there was a big surprise in both the wider Israeli public opinion and in the more professional politically aware echelons. And I think also in Cabinet and in the IDF and so on, vis a vis the actual quick, overwhelming American strategic repositioning or posturing of itself vis a vis this conflict, sending the the air, the carriers, the very strong deterrent statements and so on.
00:36:27:02 - 00:36:52:09
Eran Etzion
And it was obviously welcomed and it still is and will continue to be as long as it doesn't change. Now, we'll see what happens if there is a different American administration and a different American posture. We'll see about that. But so far, so good on that particular issue. Where things get murkier is when you speak about the day after.
00:36:52:11 - 00:37:31:10
Eran Etzion
And, you know, the more the president speaks about the two state solution, as a necessary component of any future arrangement or solution for Gaza and the West Bank. The more controversial he becomes, or at least America's policies become, I think as long as the war is raging, as long as there is the concern and it's certainly a wider concern of further deterioration in the north, as long as we hear on a daily basis about new Israeli casualties, as long as we are under really a state of war that this country has not seen.
00:37:31:12 - 00:38:07:24
Eran Etzion
And, you know, none of us, I think none of us alive has been in a similar situation. And as long as this is the case, I think America's kind of really impressive, overwhelming support of Israel will be obviously welcomed by the vast majority of Israelis. But as long again, as I said, as long as we approach the day after, as long as there are there's further further friction between the Israeli government and the administration on the day after.
00:38:08:01 - 00:38:21:04
Eran Etzion
And also on the humanitarian situation in Gaza, The more controversial the U.S., the US policy and the US president become.
00:38:21:06 - 00:38:42:22
Nimrod Goren
But I would add that there is some sort of reassurance in terms of leadership. You know, when President Biden was speaking to Israelis in the first days after October seven, he was seemingly filling the void and the lack of leadership by Netanyahu was making Israeli public that he made that what Israelis wanted to hear from someone who would reassure them, even on the personal level.
00:38:42:22 - 00:39:11:11
Nimrod Goren
And I think the messages of the president conveyed were resonating with Israel at a time that we are reassuring them in terms of a political and military support and competing. It also reassured those that were not only trusting Netanyahu's judgment the day after the ability of the US administration to be present in the war cabinet, in the Cabinet discussion, making sure that Israel is acting in a way that would actually serve its interests and pushing Israel to think about an exit strategy or strategy for the day after.
00:39:11:16 - 00:39:37:14
Nimrod Goren
I think all of those were welcomed, and I think the challenge is not only about the sustained involvement of the U.S. administration and our ability to posture towards a two state solution even during an election year, but also the ability to get interaction between the Israeli and Arab leaders back on track. And that's something that didn't happen over the last few weeks, you know, when relationship with Israel and who sustained it were mostly behind the scenes between intelligence officials or other channels.
00:39:37:19 - 00:40:05:02
Nimrod Goren
But on the public level, you need to begin to see the leaders engaging with each other. Maybe it should be through President if he eventually goes to COP28 in Dubai. Maybe it's building up on what the Bahrain Crown Prince said in condemning Hamas publicly being the first arbiter doing that. But there seems to be a place for American engagement in beginning to bring regional leaders together to converse with each other.
00:40:05:04 - 00:40:25:15
Rachel Dooley
Right. Thank you both. I have another question on public opinion, and I'll go to Nimrod first. The public in Israel can appeal any hostage deal within 24 hours if the Israeli government approves one. In what circumstances might that be the case? And and how would the public move towards that?
00:40:25:17 - 00:40:55:03
Nimrod Goren
You may see some opinions, as have been quoted by especially, I think, by far right actors who do not want to see it happening. But I guess those will be framed. I don't see any meaningful Israeli actions intended to stop people from getting all this a very quick time, 24 hours as it goes against the public sentiment, the national morality imperative. So I don't see that as a chance of happening.
00:40:55:05 - 00:41:15:09
Rachel Dooley
All right, great. And then to Eran, could you talk about the security situation in the West Bank? How do you view the deteriorating security situation? Why is the Israeli army so complicit in the attacks? And how can one quell or quiet the violence.
00:41:15:11 - 00:41:48:04
Eran Etzion
The situation in the West Bank is bad. It's deteriorating. It's been so actually steady deterioration, if we can call it that, since the inception of this government and the introduction of far right elements into key national security and and homeland security positions in the cabinet. This new situation inspired, quote unquote, militants in the West Bank to escalate their actions.
00:41:48:06 - 00:42:28:19
Eran Etzion
This was true before October 7th, as I said, and it's gotten much worse since. And the actual numbers of Palestinians killed by settlers or soldiers or combinations thereof is staggering in comparison to previous times. I think I lost count, but I think it's around 150 or so that were killed since then or in the last few months. And there are definitely serious question about the IDF and Israeli abstention from all this.
00:42:28:21 - 00:43:12:16
Eran Etzion
They're essentially missing in action. It is troublesome. It is a concern that continues to be raised by the Americans and others. But the government is not doing anything about it. And for actually, we can think of three main reasons for that. One is Netanyahu and his considerations that, of course, begin and end with his survival in power. Second is the far right elements in government that are part and parcel of this violence under their big plan of annexing the West Bank and, you know, either transferring the population or occupying it more fiercely in the Palestinian population.
00:43:12:18 - 00:43:52:09
Eran Etzion
And the third are elements within Likud, within the more, shall we say, established right in Israel that are being more and more influenced by this wave of extremism that got a very considerable boost after October 7th. And you see that in all sorts of remarks made by, you know, people that were considered mainstream elements within government. Gila Gamliel just today or yesterday with an article in the Washington Post calling for the transfer of Palestinian population from the West Bank.
00:43:52:11 - 00:44:17:18
Eran Etzion
She's a minister and government minister of of intelligence. It's an empty file. She does nothing. She has no authority over anything. But she's a minister in the government. And she's not the first one to to to make statements like that. So we have a combination of on the ground violence of more and more extreme statements. And it's absolutely concerning.
00:44:17:18 - 00:44:44:23
Eran Etzion
And I fail to see anyone within this government who has the will and the capability to to stop this. Even though, of course, the IDF, the Shin Bet, are cautioning against further duration and the opening of a full scale skirmish war off another front, whatever you want to call it, in the West Bank, one was occupied in Gaza.
00:44:45:00 - 00:44:52:10
Eran Etzion
But it might very well have them.
00:44:52:12 - 00:45:11:10
Rachel Dooley
All right. Nimrod, could you talk about some of the specific political pressures on Netanyahu as well as the war cabinet that they're both facing today? And what is the likelihood we might see a new Israeli government in a year from now.
00:45:11:12 - 00:45:43:20
Nimrod Goren
First to follow up on what Eran said, They have a political dimension of the statements that are being made by all kind of opaque ministers within a government from day one of this event, causing so much damage to Israel in terms of policy, you know, the level of tensions, for example, in Egypt, because statements like Minister of education, and others about pushing the Palestinians into Sinai, into Egypt, goes against the basic interests of Israel in maintaining the peace treaty with Egypt.
00:45:43:22 - 00:46:08:21
Nimrod Goren
It indicates that this composition of the government is irresponsible. It should not be in place. But it also reflects how insensitive people are to what are the needs and the issues that people in the region, when they look at Israel, what is important for them. But also in terms of the composition of our government. Having the Israeli embassy in the US published a statement, but then the Israeli minister does not represent the position of the government.
00:46:08:23 - 00:46:30:12
Nimrod Goren
No, that's absurd. And we cannot have a government that is operating like that. And I think Israelis understand that. And it goes beyond the ideological divide within the Israeli public. You know, we remember how the Bennett and Lapid government functioned. It was a government that has very diverse ideologies in it, but it functions, you know, in terms of good governance, very good.
00:46:30:12 - 00:46:49:02
Nimrod Goren
And people yearn for such a sort of leadership. So that's why when Israelis are looking at the political system. You know, we have a political process in order to change the government, and we do not know what exactly would be the political scenario leading to that. But eventually, when people are looking at what they want to see, they go for those leaders that they see as responsible.
00:46:49:04 - 00:47:17:09
Nimrod Goren
Either they have a security background, either they have a background of having a post governance capabilities. So that's where people are looking at. I think Israelis overall want to see either elections or change within the current coalition. They want to see political change. But again, it's difficult to do that while devoted fully.
00:47:17:11 - 00:47:36:05
Rachel Dooley
All right. Yes, sorry about that. I wasn't sure if you want to add a last minute thought there Eran. We're going to wrap it up here. But if anyone has any additional questions, please email me at rdooley@mei.edu and I'll share it with the correct person and we can go from there.
00:47:36:07 - 00:47:52:12
Rachel Dooley
Thank you all for joining us for this on the record briefing. And if you want to take a look at any of our additional resources, you can find them on our website at mei.edu. And I want to thank our two distinguished panelists, Eran Etzion and Nimrod Goren. Thank you both for your insight. And thank you all for spending part of your day with us.