Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC, told CNN that the polling data “simply cements the core reasoning for why the refugee crisis remains intractable.” 

“Regional states can pressure Assad to accept returns all they want, but it’s not going to change the palpable terror felt by refugees who simply won’t choose to return,” he said.

Lister said there is a real danger that “smaller numbers of deeply vulnerable refugees could be targeted for coerced returns.”

“We’ve already seen this in Lebanon and Turkey, and to a limited extent in Jordan too – and that’s likely just the start,” Lister said, adding that forced refugee returns place victims at “extremely high risk of persecution by the regime, or regime-linked actors.”