While the specific equipment Iran expects in addition to Su-35s remains unclear, the seemingly imminent delivery of those two dozen air superiority fighters, originally built for Egypt, has dominated discussions and headlines.
"There is a lot of hype around the supply of Su-35s to Iran because of the war in Ukraine, the 'Egyptian background' and the balance of power in the region," Anton Mardasov, an independent Russian analyst and non-resident scholar of the Middle East Institute's Syria program, told me.
He pointed out that China also ordered 24 Su-35s back in 2015. Such a relatively small number did not, of course, have much of an impact on the overall combat potential of the Chinese air force. However, as Mardasov outlined, it did allow the Chinese "to compare their aviation capabilities with those of Russia, primarily in terms of engine and avionics development, and to make further decisions in terms of purchases or their own aircraft construction."
"This is a key point for the Iranian Armed Forces because its fleet of combat aircraft, including the 'novelties' of the local military-industrial complex, is extremely outdated," he said.
Mardasov does not share "widespread opinion" about possible deliveries of attack helicopters like the Ka-52.
"Theoretically, it is certainly possible since the Iranian drone deliveries have caused some chaos in the former pattern of relations, and we do not know the tacit agreements and possible exceptions," he said. "Nevertheless, I would suggest that we are talking, rather, about the multi-purpose passenger Ka-226 since the sides were even negotiating about organizing joint production of this helicopter."
He noted that the three-year military reform recently announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense could, if implemented according to plan, see “the number of army aviation increased exactly twofold.”
"This is a huge domestic order, and I do not know how any foreign orders can be implemented under such a reform," he said.
Mardasov is also highly skeptical about Iran acquiring the S-400 or Bastion anytime soon.
"If we think logically: given the process of rearming from S-300 to S-400, the problems on the border with Ukraine, and, on top of that, Iran's own developments, I do not think that this contract can be implemented in the medium term," he said. "Perhaps we are talking about short-range systems."
"I am also skeptical about the Bastions because there is a shortage of high-precision weapons in the Russian forces," he added. "And you could also see that the Russian military has used the Onyx missiles of this coastal missile system more than once to strike Ukrainian infrastructure."