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Siamak Namazi is a former senior strategy executive who is now a keynote speaker and advises leaders on decision-making, leadership, and policy under uncertainty. He was a US hostage in Iran from 2015 to 2023.
Why Iran’s Oil Pain Does Not Guarantee Capitulation
President Donald Trump now appears to share a view gaining traction in some policy circles: that sustained pressure on Iran’s oil sector could inflict lasting damage on its production and eventually force Tehran to compromise. The thesis is appealingly simple, yet dangerously incomplete.
Iran’s coming reckoning: Regime collapse is likely — democracy is not
The collapse of the Iranian regime in its present form now seems more plausible than its survival as a functioning state. Yet the emergence of a democratic Iran remains far from certain. Between these two outcomes lies a volatile and dangerous middle ground. But much will depend on four factors.
