Attiya Ahmad

صَدم وزير الخارجية الجزائري، رمطان لعمامرة، العالم بإعلانه القطع المفاجئ للعلاقات الدبلوماسية بين الجزائر والرباط، بعد ثلاثة عقود من تجاور بارد بين القوتين المغاربيتين. واتهم لعمامرة، في بيان رسمي، تلاه أواخر أغسطس/آب 2021، المغرب بالتخلي عن التزامه بتنظيم استفتاء لتقرير المصير في الصحراء الغربية، من بين ما أسماه “أعمال عدائية ومشينة” أخرى ارتكبها ضد الجزائر.

In late August 2021, Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ramtane Lamamra, shocked the world by abruptly severing diplomatic relations with Rabat after three decades of a cold modus vivendi between the two Maghrebi powerhouses. In an official statement, Lamamra accused Morocco of abandoning its commitment to organizing a referendum for self-determination in Western Sahara, among other “hostile and despicable acts” against Algeria.

After 16 years under Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz’s assumption of Germany’s chancellorship on Dec. 8, 2021 marked a new chapter in the nation’s politics. Within the “traffic light” coalition government formed by the Social Democrats, the Free Democratic Party, and the Greens, Annalena Baerbock heads the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Before taking office, the co-leader of Alliance 90/The Greens was known for both her welcoming attitude toward immigrants and her full-throated condemnation of human rights violations by authoritarian governments. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has no shortage of the latter: According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, 17 out of the 20 countries in the region are “authoritarian” and not one is characterized as a “full democracy.” Beyond human rights, other key MENA policy issues for the new government include Iran, Turkey, ongoing conflicts in the region, and immigration. The challenges are numerous, if well-known, but how will Berlin respond? Is Germany’s policy toward MENA likely to change or remain the same under the new government?

Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has opened up new opportunities for Turkey, but Erdogan should not overplay his hand.

The international friendly soccer match scheduled to take place between the Canadian and Iranian men’s national teams on June 5 was canceled in the face of widespread opposition from the families of the Canadians killed in the downing of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 by the IRGC. The Canadian government has called the January 2020 shootdown of PS752, which killed 55 Canadian citizens and 30 permanent residents, a “national tragedy” and the decision to cancel the match should serve as a reminder that the Iranian regime has been unresponsive to the demands of the PS752 families.

To identify pathways to deal with demands for economic reform and volatility in resource revenue in Iraq, in November 2021 the Middle East Institute (MEI) and Iraq Policy Group (IPG) convened a high-level workshop on the side-lines of the American University of Kurdistan’s annual Middle East Peace and Security Forum. This report provides the insights and analyses of a select group of participants, and forms part of a series of forthcoming Iraq- and Gulf-focused reports and initiatives that MEI and IPG will be convening.

Since the launch of Vision 2030 six years ago, Saudi Arabia has made considerable progress in reducing the labor-cost gap between national and foreign workers in the private sector. While the total unemployment rate has declined recently among nationals, it remains high at 11%. Drawing on evidence from Bahrain’s experience with labor market reform, this can be significantly reduced through policies designed to bridge the cost gap between citizens and foreign labor in the private sector.

With its recent deepwater exploration success in the Black Sea and prominent geographic location for interregional hydrocarbon pipelines, Turkey can play a material role in shaping the geopolitical landscape today, especially in the natural gas sector. The country will face a strategic conundrum, whether to utilize newly discovered gas resources entirely for domestic needs and thereby reduce gas imports that come with political baggage as well as foreign currency expenditures, or export gas to capture foreign revenue that Ankara desperately needs.

For Iraqis, two key events last week will shape the rest of this year, but hopefully not many more to come. First, on June 8 the divided parliament voted in surprising harmony to pass the so-called “Food Security and Development Bill,” a controversial piece of legislation with a $17 billion price tag. Second, this was followed, almost overnight on June 9, by a call from firebrand populist Shi’a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to lawmakers loyal to his movement to “prepare their resignations.” On June 12, the 73 MPs of the Sadrist Movement tendered their resignations, and Iraq leapt even deeper into the void of political uncertainty.

The June 3 address by Reza Pahlavi, son of the last shah, to the people of Iran was bad news for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In his live televised speech, Reza Pahlavi made several accusations against the current leadership of Iran, and judging from their reaction, it has put Iranian officials on edge.

The UGTT’s strike would be the biggest challenge to President Kais Saied since he assumed full control of the Tunisian government last July.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.