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Giorgio Cafiero

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Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington, DC. His research interests include geopolitical and security trends in the Arabian Peninsula and the broader Middle East. Mr. Cafiero is a regular contributor to several publications including Al Monitor, The National Interest, and LobeLog. From 2014-2015, he was an analyst at Kroll, an investigative due diligence consultancy. He received an M.A. in International Relations from the University of San Diego.

The Latest from Giorgio Cafiero

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Oman's new embassy in Palestine
In this handout from the Palestinian Press Office, Palestinan President Mahmoud Abbas (R) meets with Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said on January 14, 2010 in Muscat, Oman.
  • Analysis
  • Oman's new embassy in Palestine

    The news came eight months after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a visit to the Omani capital for surprise talks with Sultan Qaboos in October 2018, and four months after Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah met with Netanyahu in Poland during the Trump administration’s “Peace and Security in the Middle East” summit.

    August 12, 2019

    The Gulf-backed counter-revolution in Khartoum
    Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Himediti, deputy head of Sudan's ruling Transitional Military Council (TMC) and commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries, waves a baton to supporters on a vehicle as he arrives for a rally in the village of Abraq, about 60 kilometers northwest of Khartoum, on June 22, 2019. (YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP/Getty Images)
  • Analysis
  • The Gulf-backed counter-revolution in Khartoum

    One hallmark of Sudan’s most recent protests has been the protestors’ fierce determination that the military not be their partner in the struggle for democratization. Some GCC states, however, are getting involved in Sudan, using their financial means to influence the country’s future. In doing so, they risk making it the Arab world’s next theater for intra-GCC rivalry.

    July 2, 2019

    Is ISIS the real winner of Hifter’s Tripoli offensive?
    Libyan national security forces stage a show of strength after clashes against Daesh in the town of Sabratha, Libya on February 28, 2016.
  • Analysis
  • Is ISIS the real winner of Hifter’s Tripoli offensive?

    The launch of General Khalifa Hifter’s campaign to retake Tripoli in April has intensified Libya’s political upheaval and created the conditions for a potential resurgence of ISIS. The onset of the Libyan civil war in mid-2014 gave rise to a power vacuum that enabled the group to establish an initial presence in Libya, and while ISIS was eventually driven out at the end of 2016, the current political instability could give it an opportunity to regroup and re-establish itself — with major ramifications for the country and the broader region.

    May 30, 2019

    Is a Sudanese-Iranian rapprochement possible?
    An Iranian navy special forces known as Takavaran wearing a similar uniform worn by the US military and holding an Israeli made Uzi sub-machine gun stands guard near the Iranian Kharg replenishment ship docked in the Red Sea Sudanese town of Port Sudan on October 31, 2012.
  • Analysis
  • Is a Sudanese-Iranian rapprochement possible?

    Much analysis of the geopolitical ramifications of President Omar al-Bashir’s ouster last month has focused on how Sudan fits into the larger struggle between the Middle East’s Sunni powers, but Iran is also part of the equation as well. Saudi and Emirati leaders have a number of objectives in Sudan and preventing the Islamic Republic from re-establishing a foothold in Africa is one of them. Indeed, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are determined to ensure that Khartoum remains firmly in the anti-Iranian camp, following its realignment between 2014 and early 2016.

    May 9, 2019

    General Hifter’s march on Tripoli
    Brigadier Ahmed al-Mesmari, spokesman of the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army loyal to Khalifa Haftar, speaks during a press conference in his office in Benghazi on April 8, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • General Hifter’s march on Tripoli

    The fluid and chaotic situation in Libya is confusing and predicting how the ongoing violence in Tripoli will play out and impact the broader trajectory of the civil war is difficult. Nonetheless, Hifter’s campaign appears to be connected to several international and regional developments, the alignment of which seems to have prompted him to determine that this was an opportune time to move forward, dealing a harsh blow to the UN-led peace process.

    April 9, 2019

    Mounting tensions between Morocco and Saudi Arabia
    Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia Adel al-Jubeir (R) and Morocco's Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Nasser Bourita (L) hold a joint press conference after their meeting in Rabat, Morocco on May 8, 2017.
  • Analysis
  • Mounting tensions between Morocco and Saudi Arabia

    The alliance between Morocco and Saudi Arabia has historically been strong, bolstered by shared concerns about regional turmoil in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring protests, but recent tensions have brought bilateral relations to an all-time low. Last month, frictions between Rabat and Riyadh came to the fore when Morocco recalled its ambassador from Saudi Arabia.

    March 5, 2019

    A thaw in Tunisian-Syrian relations
    Tunisian protestors wave their national and the Syrian flags on May 6, 2013.
  • Analysis
  • A thaw in Tunisian-Syrian relations

    Observers of political affairs in the Arab world are keeping a close eye on the upcoming Arab League summit, set to be held at the end of March in Tunis. Although Syria will not participate in the meeting, the question of when, or how, to bring Damascus in from the cold after an eight-year suspension from the body will be the most important issue on the agenda.

    February 28, 2019

    Iran and the Gulf states 40 years after the 1979 revolution
    Ceremony marking the 39th anniversary of the Islamic revolution, at Azadi Square in Tehran, Iran
  • Analysis
  • Iran and the Gulf states 40 years after the 1979 revolution

    Geopolitically, the Iranian Revolution did more to transform the Middle East than any other event in the second half of the 20th century. It aimed to restructure not only Iran’s society and political system, but also others across the Islamic world. Refusing to align with either the United States or the Soviet Union in the Cold War, the newly established Islamic Republic sought to create a new geopolitical order in the Persian Gulf and greater Middle East based on a mantra of “neither East nor West.”

    February 8, 2019

    Arab Gulf states silent on China’s Xinjiang crackdown
    Military rally in Kashgar for anti-terrorism and maintaining stability
  • Analysis
  • Arab Gulf states silent on China’s Xinjiang crackdown

    Unlike other cases of repression against Muslims around the world, such as Myanmar, the Gulf monarchies have been silent about the “cultural cleansing” taking place in China’s Xinjiang Province.

    January 22, 2019

    A growing partnership: Gulf crisis fosters Qatar-Mexico ties
    Sheikh Tamim's visit to Mexico City
  • Analysis
  • A growing partnership: Gulf crisis fosters Qatar-Mexico ties

    Since Sheikh Tamim became emir in 2013, and especially since the diplomatic and economic blockade of Qatar began in mid-2017, Doha and Mexico City have begun to develop an increasingly fruitful partnership.

    January 14, 2019

    The GCC Riyadh summit: Beginning of the end of the Qatar crisis?
    Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
  • Analysis
  • The GCC Riyadh summit: Beginning of the end of the Qatar crisis?

    The upcoming GCC summit in Saudi Arabia offers an opportunity to bring the opposing sides to the table, but it is far from clear what will come out of the meeting

    December 5, 2018

    "Arab Shield 1": The birth of an Arab NATO?
  • Analysis
  • "Arab Shield 1": The birth of an Arab NATO?

    As naval, air, and ground units from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE conduct war games in western Egypt this month, many speculate that this could represent the birth of the so-called “Arab NATO.”

    November 13, 2018

    Bahrain set for elections amid deep divisions
    Banner held in Bahrain protest
  • Analysis
  • Bahrain set for elections amid deep divisions

    Bahrain is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on Nov. 24, but the vote is unlikely to resolve the kingdom’s lingering political crisis.

    November 5, 2018

    Malaysia’s Gulf Foreign Policy Challenges
  • Analysis
  • Malaysia’s Gulf Foreign Policy Challenges

    For decades Malaysia’s Islamic identity has strongly factored into the latter’s ties with GCC members. Kuala Lumpur has long engaged the Arab Persian Gulf monarchies closely on issues of major ideological and geopolitical importance to the wider Arab/Islamic world from the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan to the unresolved question of Palestine. This article discusses the challenges Malaysia faces in preserving and further nurturing its long-standing relations with the GCC countries.

    September 11, 2018

    Turkey's move into the Red Sea unsettles Egypt
  • Analysis
  • Turkey's move into the Red Sea unsettles Egypt

    Projecting greater Turkish power in Africa has always been a pillar of the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) foreign policy agenda.

    January 17, 2018