Guita Hourani

Tunisia, the birthplace of the 2011 Arab uprisings, is on the cusp of a defining moment. The parliamentary election of October 26 is about pivoting toward democratization. Presidential elections will follow on November 23. The focus of this piece is on how the elections are likely to reshape Tunisia’s polity and society.

Authoritarian Meltdown

Read the full article at The National Interest.

While thick dust largely covers the political landscape of the Arab world, some insights for thinking about its future might be offered by examining the case of Indonesia, which surmounted deep political uncertainty and turmoil during the early years of the post-Suharto era.

Thanks to unprecedented current account surpluses, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are investing billions abroad and looking more toward the East. The GCC’s growing trade ties with China have been accompanied by encouraging development in investment relations. For these countries, investment projects in China promise access not only to large and rapidly growing energy markets, but also to other booming sectors.

This paper is part of an MEI scholar series, titled “Obama’s Legacy in the Middle East: Passing the Baton in 2017.” Click here to view the full project, or navigate using the table of contents to the right.

This summer’s war between Israel and Hamas, like the previous rounds — Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009 and Operation Pillar of Cloud in 2012 — exacted a terrible cost not only in human lives (more than 2,100 Palestinians and 73 Israelis[1]) but also in the wholesale destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure.  The Palestinian Authority estimates reconstruction and rehabilitation costs of the recent conflict to exceed $4 billion, more than two times Gaza’s GNP.[2]

This essay sheds light on the pattern of GCC investment in India by identifying India’s major Gulf partners, the size of their investment presence, and key investment sectors, as well as the areas of potential growth in and barriers to greater investment.

This article was first published on The Huffington Post.

Read the full article on CNN.com.

Turkey is in a tough spot. It has ISIS militants threatening the Syrian border town of Kobani, inching ever closer to confronting Turkish security forces. In addition thousands of Syrian Kurds, fleeing ISIS attacks, have massed along its border, adding further to Ankara’s troubles.

This article was first published in The New York Times.

President Obama made the right decision to boost military aid to moderate Syrian rebels last year, but today America’s approach to attacking Islamic State fighters risks undermining the moderate opposition and alienating support among the Syrian public.

This essay explores recent GCC investment in sectors of the Chinese economy other than the petrochemicals industry and examines the challenges confronted by Gulf investors.