Morocco, Algeria and the Western Mediterranean tension game
As the aftermath of the earthquake that struck Morocco in early September unfolded, one notable aspect of the response to the devastation was the geopolitical element of aid and disaster relief. Specifically, what drew attention was Algeria’s offer of assistance and whether it might signal an implicit desire to reduce tensions between the hostile neighbours. Yet, mistrust between the two continues to run high, and a single gesture of offering support is unlikely to undo decades of animosity.
Six years ago, the Syrian regime conquered the southern province of Daraa, popularly known by millions of Syrians as the “cradle of the revolution.” That military victory represented a pivotal moment for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. After all, it was the last time the regime captured a sizable swath of opposition territory, and in doing so in July 2018, its impunity was laid bare for all the world to see. On paper, Daraa had been designated a “de-escalation zone” after months of intensive international diplomacy in which the United States had played a central role.
CENTCOM says ISIS is reconstituting in Syria and Iraq, but the reality is even worse
On July 16, CENTCOM announced that after six months of 2024, “ISIS is on pace to more than double” the number of attacks in Syria and Iraq it claimed in 2023. But the reality is far worse than this statement suggested because the data represents only a fraction of ISIS’s actual attacks in Syria and Iraq.
The geopolitical causes of Georgia’s political crisis
Strengthening authoritarian rule in Georgia is not just a reflection of Georgia’s internal politics but also a symptom of the West’s broader disengagement from the wider Black Sea region. This disengagement has facilitated Russian state capture in Georgia, undermining the rule of law and democracy.
Key takeaways for NATO and the Middle East from the Washington Summit Declaration
At the Washington Summit, NATO member states mostly focused on efforts to counter Russia and to support Ukraine. However, the 2024 summit communiqué also addresses non-Euro-Atlantic risks and opportunities, based on the idea that “conflict, fragility and instability” elsewhere directly affects NATO security.
Wide gap between the Egyptian government’s rosy figures and the economic hardship suffered by millions
For Egyptian officials, June should have been a month to celebrate. And yet none of the seeming macroeconomic successes that the government recorded brought much reassurance to the average Egyptian, who has continued to experience currency shortages, an unreliable energy grid, and fears of a resurgent spike in inflation.
Syrian armed groups divided over Turkey-Syria normalization push
Despite their popular nature, the protests in northwestern Syria, sparked by racist attacks on Syrians over the border in Turkey, have exposed the rifts and divisions between various opposition factions. Bilal Samir explores the positions of the major military groups in Turkish-controlled areas and assesses how closely they align with Turkey’s policy.
Rethinking Democracy Ep. 3: Economic Conditions and Support for Democracy with Daron Acemoglu and Tamara Cofman Wittes
Authoritarian populism is on the rise around the world. Political scientists and policymakers are debating what’s driving this trend. Is it economic inequality, or a cultural backlash against social change that erodes trust in democratic institutions? Dr. Daron Acemoglu and Dr. Tamara Cofman Wittes join Gonul Tol to discuss the relationship between changing economic conditions and support for democracy.
Smoke and mirrors: The Syrian regime's dubious anti-drug campaigns
The Syrian regime recently announced that it had arrested over 2,000 people in Damascus on drug-related charges during the first half of 2024. However, the relatively small amount of drugs confiscated suggests the regime is focusing on arresting users and street-level pushers rather than going after the major producers and traffickers. This highlights how the Syrian regime manipulates drug crackdowns to serve multiple agendas while ensuring the flow of illicit drugs continues uninterrupted.
Iran’s foreign policy has generally been characterized by continuity in the postrevolutionary period, yet its motives have transformed over time. This research paper argues that Islamic fundamentalism goaded and motivated foreign policy in the first decade of the Islamic Republic of Iran. After the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the country’s foreign policy maintained a fundamentalist posture, but was forcefully driven by policies to guarantee its political survival.
What Comes Next for Turkey? Prospects for Change on the Political, Economic, and Foreign Policy Fronts
After two decades in power and following the Justice and Development Party’s historic defeat in the 2024 local elections, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is now at his most vulnerable. What comes next is not only important for the future prospects of Turkish democracy but also holds important lessons for autocrats across the world. Scholars Evren Balta, Seda Demiralp, Edgar Şar, and M. Murat Kubilay seek to answer key questions about the country’s political, economic, and foreign policy trajectory in a new report from the Middle East Institute.
The weight of past mistakes and the post-election push for economic normalization
For years under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey pursued an unconventional monetary policy. The situation, long untenable, finally became unsustainable in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in May 2023. In the immediate aftermath of the vote, President Erdoğan announced a dramatic shift, returning to orthodox monetary policy. While there have been tangible improvements on a number of fronts as a result, the country faces both declining household purchasing power in the short term and a range of broader economic challenges in the longer run.
