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Director. PalThink for Strategic Studies, Palestine.
Omar Shaban is an analyst on political economy of the Middle East and the founder of PalThink for Strategic Studies. He was a candidate for the 1st Palestinian parliamentary elections in 1996. He is independent from any political affiliation. Omar regularly writes for various international magazines and has been interviewed by many well-known international newspapers. He occasionally participates in conferences on political and economic issues, and Palestinian affairs such as the reconstruction of Gaza, the reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, the Arab-Israeli conflict, and the Euro-Med cooperation. Omar Shaban holds a BA in economy from Egypt (1984), and a MSc. Degree in Entrepreneurial Studies, Stirling University, Scotland (1995).
Israel’s early August offensive against Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza achieved several strategic and tactical goals, but it failed to entirely sever the PIJ’s relationship with Hamas.
While the events now taking place in Jerusalem and the West Bank are very similar to those of May 2021, the political contexts are different on all sides. Although Israel carried out an airstrike on April 18 following rocket fire from the Gaza Strip, the situation is unlikely to lead to a repeat of last year’s Gaza war.
The current Palestinian leadership does not appear ready for sudden independence. Despite the push for Palestinian statehood, there remains weaknesses in the Palestinian political establishment that undermine this quest. Political and social fragmentation, a lack of representative leadership and an inability to apply the rule of law seem to indicate that if Palestine were to become an independent state tomorrow, it would falter.
Egypt, which enjoys friendly relations with both the Palestinian Authority and Israel, understands that it must normalize relations with Hamas to be able to act as a mediator between the three parties. The Egyptian government, which has yet to achieve convincing results in the fight against terrorist groups in Sinai, is also in need of Hamas’ cooperation in this area.
With the exception of the extremely slow reconstruction process of what was destroyed during the last Israel-Gaza war in the summer of 2014, the conditions that preceded that war remain in place. The Palestinian reconciliation process remains cosmetic, negotiations for a truce between Israel and Hamas that were supposed to resume under Egyptian auspices have stalled, and humanitarian conditions in Gaza are becoming increasingly dire. Without improvement on any of these issues, the risks for a new round of fighting remain high.
