Beginning in early December 2025, UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces launched an offensive in eastern Yemen, seizing Seiyun and key military and administrative sites across Wadi Hadhramaut before advancing into al-Mahrah, as Saudi-aligned tribal and government units withdrew under mounting political and military pressure.
These developments reflect not only local power shifts but also structural tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, competing visions for Gulf security, and the centrality of southern oil resources in shaping both regional economic leverage and international diplomacy. U.S. engagement, though limited, remains a key variable influencing the pace and scope of STC escalation.
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