With election of nationalist president, Lebanon moves to exit the Axis of Resistance

With a nearly unanimous 99 out of 128 votes, the Lebanese parliament elected the head of the army, Gen. Joseph Aoun, as Lebanon’s 14th president on Jan. 9. In a strong inaugural speech Aoun laid out an ambitious agenda premised on regaining the Lebanese state’s monopoly of the use of force, securing the country’s borders and ports, strengthening the rule of law, and encouraging a raft of long-overdue reforms. Taking place shortly after the change of government in Damascus, Aoun’s election gives hope to many Lebanese that the decades of subjugation to Syrian and Iranian interests might be coming to an end, and that the real work of rebuilding the state could finally get underway.

Yesterday’s election ended a two-and-half-year vacancy in the presidency. Previously, Hezbollah and its allied Amal Movement had insisted on the candidacy of Suleiman Frangieh, a close ally of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but the collapse of the Assad regime took his bid with it. More fundamentally, the massive losses suffered by Hezbollah at the hands of Israel, further compounded by the strategic loss of the Assad regime, have put the movement in a weakened and vulnerable position. In addition, the enormous aid and reconstruction needs of their electoral and political base, among the 1.2 million Lebanese that were displaced by the war and have since returned to ruined villages and neighborhoods, put further pressure on Hezbollah. They know that they will not receive the billions of dollars of needed aid from Iran — either because Iran doesn’t have it, or because the US and Israel won’t allow it — and thus they are aware that they need a reconstituted Lebanese state, one that has good relations with the Arab world and the West, to rapidly bring in assistance.

Gen. Aoun was not their preferred choice, but a broad international and national consensus had emerged around him in the run-up to Jan. 9; their attempts to float other candidates got nowhere. Hezbollah’s members of parliament withheld their support in the first round of voting but then reluctantly cast their votes for him in the second round.

With a president now in place, his first procedural duty is to carry out consultations with parliament to designate a prime minister to form a government. Aoun has come out with a strong nationalist and sovereigntist reform agenda that has clear public support in the country, the region, and internationally. It is essential that the choice of prime minister match that caliber with a candidate who is equally committed and can garner similar domestic and international credibility and support. That prime minister-designate must then form an effective, clean, and capable government.

As the international community insisted on high standards in the election of a president, so too must it insist on high standards in the selection of a prime minister and the formation of a government.

In the Lebanese constitution, the president is the commander of the armed forces. As such, his first security challenge is to oversee the full and proper implementation of the cease-fire agreement with Israel. That means ensuring Hezbollah’s compliance with a full withdrawal from the area south of the Litani River and a forceful deployment by the Lebanese Armed Forces that takes its role as a national army seriously and does not look the other way if there are Hezbollah violations. At the same time, the president must use his strong diplomatic support to insist that Israel complete its withdrawal from Lebanon, cease its attacks, and live up to its end of the deal. While securing the southern border, the president must also ensure the state’s control over all of Lebanon’s borders with Syria, as well as the country’s ports and airports. This might be more achievable than in recent years because Hezbollah already lost control of the southern border to Israeli attacks as well as of any parts of the border with Syria, due to the change in regime there.

After that, the president must make good on his declared principle of ensuring the state’s monopoly of the use of force. In his speech Aoun declared that he would lead a national dialogue on a new defense strategy — a euphemism for a discussion with Hezbollah of a pathway for its integration into a state-led defense structure and/or its disarmament. This time the dialogue must go beyond euphemisms and reach a final and decisive conclusion.

On the socio-economic and governance front, the new president and the soon-to-be-formed new government face a number of urgent priorities. These include securing desperately needed international aid for the recently displaced; negotiating an agreement between the banks, the state, and depositors to reform and revive the banking sector; undertaking negotiations and urgent reforms in economic governance to secure a deal with the International Monetary Fund and to regain the confidence of the international community as well as public and private lenders and investors; and strengthening the independence and efficacy of the judiciary, fighting corruption, and enacting administrative decentralization in order to dramatically improve governance. Lebanon must also build positive relations with the emerging authorities in Damascus, after decades of difficulties, and rebuild strong relations with its Arab and Gulf friends, as well as its friends in the West and around the world.

Of course, there are many risks along the way, and one must not exaggerate the importance of the one step of electing a president. After all, the post of president in Lebanon has only limited executive authority and the power to make decisions is mainly vested in the government and prime minister. One must also keep in mind that the opponents of this new sovereigntist turn in the country, as well as the entrenched political mafias that have survived on graft and corruption for decades, have many tricks up their sleeve. But the election is nevertheless a very positive sign and it comes at a time when regional developments, particularly in Syria, might create a real opening for change.

Lebanon lost its sovereignty in 1969, when Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser strongarmed the Lebanese government into signing part of it away to the armed wing of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). After Nasser’s death in 1970, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad began further weakening Lebanon’s sovereignty; and following the PLO’s departure in 1982, Assad worked with Iran to impose an armed Hezbollah on the country. Syria’s Arab nationalist Ba’ath regime never fully recognized Lebanon’s sovereignty and worked in myriad ways to undermine it. Lebanon today has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make another run at independence and true statehood, after the first attempt in 1943. It deserves all the help it can get.

Paul Salem is MEI’s Vice President for International Engagement.

Photo by Bilal Jawich/Xinhua via Getty Images