Gaza cease-fire: A first step on a very long road ahead

The cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas announced on Jan. 15 took more than a year to reach and almost certainly will take much longer to fully realize than the four-plus months outlined in the framework. Like many things in life, this agreement was hard to build and will be easy to tear down. Indeed, the deal has already run into issues even before it is set to take effect on Jan. 19, with a dispute within the Israeli cabinet delaying a vote on it until Jan. 17. 

A central factor in the successful implementation of the agreement will be marginalizing the spoilers who are poised to scuttle any progress — as has happened in other phased deals on the Israeli-Palestinian front.

Three factors that produced this deal

Why now, and not sooner? That is the question many are asking about this deal.

1. A changed security landscape in the Middle East. One obstacle to achieving the deal sooner was the simple fact that Israel, the more powerful party to the conflict, faced attacks on multiple fronts since Hamas started the war with its assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. These near-daily attacks came not just from Hamas in Gaza but also Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militias in Syria and Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran.

   Israel’s moves to restore a semblance of strategic deterrence in its multi-front military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran from the summer of 2024 until today made this deal possible. Some voices who argued last year that the United States and others should pressure Israel to stop its campaign in Gaza to avoid a wider regional war misread the dynamics of the conflicts and tensions across the region, which were driven mostly by the “Axis of Resistance” backed by Iran. Once this axis had suffered devastating losses and Israel was less vulnerable, the environment became more propitious for a deal.

2. Persistent diplomacy involving key partners in the region. When the first cease-fire of the Israel-Hamas war ended in December 2023, the diplomatic efforts to achieve another agreement and hostage release never really ended. At certain points, the attempts trailed off, but the discussions continued, even as Hamas and its leadership were absorbing devastating losses. President Joe Biden outlined a template in May 2024 proposing three phases for a cease-fire and hostage release leading to wider diplomatic efforts, and the US worked persistently with Egypt and Qatar for months to achieve this deal.

3. The unlikely pragmatic cooperation between Biden and Trump. For all the rancor, bluster, and showmanship of US politics and its never-ending campaigns, the outgoing Biden administration and incoming Donald Trump administration worked closely together to shape and influence these discussions to produce the outcome. This pragmatic cooperation is a reminder that despite sharp divisions inside of America, different parties can come together to accomplish important objectives on the foreign policy front.

The confluence of events at this time — the changed security environment, the dogged diplomacy over more than a year, and the political transition in America — made this deal possible.

But will it survive long?

Three steps to facilitate the deal’s implementation

The contours of this deal are complicated and involve three different phases — and getting through full implementation will be very difficult. Three big steps are needed to ensure implementation.

1. Safeguard the deal from spoilers. Multiple Palestinian and Israeli actors, as well as others in the region more broadly, will continue to oppose this cease-fire for their own reasons.  Many of these voices are extremists who do not recognize the complex reality of the situation and the long-term imperative of co-existence. Some extremist groups among the Palestinians may seek to use force to undercut the deal, as happened in the 1990s with the Oslo process. Right-wing extremists in Israel’s current governing coalition are likely to oppose moving forward beyond the deal’s first phase, especially after the hostages are released, because they oppose a two-state solution. The best way to safeguard against these elements is to create and strengthen a regional coalition of actors to support the deal and build a bridge to a more lasting settlement.

2. Prevent further deterioration of security and humanitarian conditions in Gaza. Another major challenge in implementing this agreement is practical: how to sequence the withdrawal of Israeli forces with the introduction of other forces that can restore law and order and maintain a semblance of security. Better security conditions are required to surge the additional humanitarian aid envisioned in this deal — and that will be no small task, with criminal gangs already operating in Gaza in ways that damage security and impede equitable aid delivery. On these issues, the United States can play an important security and development aid role, working in close coordination with Israel, Egypt, and other key countries.

3. Assign clear roles and responsibilities in the team effort of implementing the deal. This agreement, if it is to move forward, will require substantial time and attention from the incoming Trump administration, which has already signaled a long list of ambitious and in some cases intentionally provocative actions on other policy fronts in its overall agenda, including immigration, tariffs, and major changes in how the US government operates. The Trump administration is likely to expect America’s regional partners to share a lot of the burden, and some of them seem poised to do so. But this will require a clear management game plan that defines the roles and responsibilities of everyone involved in the implementation.

If this cease-fire deal goes forward on Jan. 19 as planned, it will require a heavy lift and deeper and steadier engagement by the United States to achieve its full potential.

Brian Katulis is a Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy at MEI. 

Photo by Mahmud Hams/AFP via Getty Images