The geopolitical causes of Georgia’s political crisis

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, now in its 29th month, has crystallized into a strategic effort to coerce Kyiv and the international community into accepting the Kremlin’s terms for peace. This complex situation is further complicated by differing perspectives among various stakeholders, including member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union, on what constitutes “victory” or “defeat.” The resulting lack of clarity and mutual understanding has led to misconceptions and ineffective Western policies. Moreover, the difficulties faced by Western stakeholders in clearly defining an acceptable end state of the war in Ukraine, along with the inconsistent and often inadequate military assistance provided to Kyiv, have created opportunities for Moscow to exploit these weaknesses. This not only undermines Ukraine’s military success but also emboldens Russia to mount pressure on other countries in the region, with Georgia being particularly vulnerable.

Strengthening Russia’s grip on Georgia, consistently one of the most pro-Western countries for the last few decades, is one of the most visible examples of the far-reaching consequences of the war in Ukraine. Democratic backsliding and the consolidation of Russian-style authoritarian rule in Georgia are happening against the backdrop of massive propaganda campaigns that try to project the war in Ukraine as a consequence of Ukraine’s determination to align itself with the West. Moscow exploited the situation by enhancing disinformation campaigns, drawing parallels between the events of the EuroMaidan (the wave of protests that resulted in the Ukrainian president fleeing to Russia in early 2014) and potential political changes in Georgia. In a coordinated effort, Russia and the Georgian Dream government have spread conspiracy theories suggesting that the Georgian government’s loss in the upcoming elections, set for October 2024, would pose a high risk of destabilizing the country, leading to its destruction, similar to Ukraine. The main point of the propaganda campaigns is not to convince Georgians that Russia is a better choice for them than the West. Rather, as with every well-thought-out Russian disinformation campaign, this messaging line aims to sow fear and confusion by forcing a not-so-rhetorical question into the political discourse: if the West cannot defend Ukraine, can it defend Georgia or other partners?

While the geopolitical situation in the wider Black Sea region and the war in Ukraine extensively influence political dynamics in Georgia, the South Caucasus country’s own stance and role in shaping regional geopolitics should not be underestimated. Namely, the next three months leading up to the elections will be crucial in helping set the long-term political trajectory of the Georgian state. And the unfolding scenarios during this period could significantly impact the broader authoritarian push against the rules-based international system.

The complex interdependencies in the Black Sea region

Due to its strategic centrality to East-West connectivity, the Black Sea region has been a focal point of contention between Western powers and Russia for decades. Since the beginning of the 21st century, however, the absence of a proactive Western policy in the wider Black Sea region has enabled Russia to consistently extend its influence through hybrid strategies. By effectively controlling each of the protracted conflicts in the region, Russia has undermined the economic and democratic development of its southwestern post-Soviet neighbors, preventing their Western integration. Russia’s constant manipulation of, and blocking of solutions to, the conflicts in Transnistria, Karabakh, Abkhazia, Tskhinvali (South Ossetia), and Donbas, along with the annexation of Crimea, has deeply extended its malign influence in Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ukraine, as well as critically undercut their security. The West has failed to deter Russia from implementing its aggressive policies against these countries.

Thus, strengthening authoritarian rule in Georgia is not just a reflection of Georgia’s internal politics but also a symptom of the West’s broader disengagement from the wider Black Sea region. This disengagement has facilitated Russian state capture in Georgia, undermining the rule of law and democracy. The ruling Georgian Dream party, deferentially aligned with Moscow, has fostered corruption, nepotism, and consolidation of authoritarian power, weakening the country’s pro-Western elites. This has led to a precarious security situation, with Georgia exploring strategic partnerships with Russia and China, further reducing its alignment with Western interests.

Georgia’s isolation from Western partners

At this point, it is crucial for Russia to ensure that Georgia has no prospects of joining the EU or NATO, thus securing Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus and guaranteeing control of the Eurasian “Middle Corridor” route, effectively cutting off the possibility of diversifying energy and trade flows (especially oil, electricity, and dry cargo) from the Caspian basin to Europe. This context sheds light on why the Georgian Dream accelerated its de jure shift in foreign policy right before the October 2024 milestone parliamentary elections, against the will of the vast majority of the Georgian public.

The political dynamics in Georgia and the poor performance of the fragmented opposition in recent years have for months indicated a likely Georgian Dream victory in the upcoming election, thus seemingly reducing the need for the government to strengthen the authoritarian tools at its disposal. Therefore, the accelerated enforcement of a controversial anti-Western trajectory seems logical only in the context of increased pressure from Russia to ensure Georgia’s full disengagement from the EU enlargement process. Earlier measures the Georgian Dream took to disrupt Georgia’s candidate status were ineffective, as the country still received it. Consequently, Russia is likely demanding more concrete actions from the leader of Georgia’s ruling party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, to prove his reliability and loyalty. Georgian Dream’s current policies risk undoing all of the country’s achievements on the path to Euro-integration to date, aligning with Moscow’s ultimate goal of keeping Georgia firmly within its sphere of influence and blocking the latter’s path toward the EU and NATO.

Over the past decade, Tbilisi has aligned itself ever more closely with Moscow, driven largely by the ruling Georgian Dream party’s policies. Georgia’s reluctance to more directly support Ukraine against Russian aggression and its refusal to join Western sanctions against Russia were the first clear illustrations of this shift. This alignment has strained Georgia’s relationship with the West, significantly decreasing the country’s security and democratic governance. Despite strong popular support for Ukraine and pro-Western sentiment among Georgians, the government has steered the country toward Russia, evident through laws mirroring Russian policies and strategic moves that alienate Western allies.

Georgian Dream’s introduction of Russian-style legislation on foreign influence signifies a formal shift in Georgia’s foreign policy toward Russia. This law mandates that organizations receiving at least 20% of their funding from foreign sources register as “foreign agents,” mirroring tactics used by the Kremlin to control civil society and limit domestic political opposition. Internationally, the adoption of this law has drawn sharp criticism from Western governments, signaling a deterioration of relations with Georgia’s traditional allies. The law’s implementation threatens to isolate Georgia from the West further, posing severe economic and political challenges.

Civil society in Georgia remains vocal in its support for Western integration, as exemplified by the widespread protests against the government’s pro-Russian policies. However, as the political landscape in Georgia becomes increasingly polarized, the authoritarian tendencies of the Georgian Dream government pose significant challenges for domestic proponents of the rule of law and a pro-Western foreign policy orientation that are more and more difficult to surmount.

Implications of Georgian Dream’s pro-Russian policy U-turn

The implications of the Georgian Dream’s accelerating policy U-turn toward Russia are profound, threatening Georgia’s democratic future, regional stability, and European aspirations, as well as posing significant strategic risks for both Georgia and the Euro-Atlantic community.

Internally, these policies exacerbate political polarization and societal divisions, weaken democratic institutions, and undermine the pro-Western aspirations of the majority of Georgians. The government’s actions have alienated significant population segments, leading to increased unrest and instability.

For the West, Georgia’s drift toward Russia represents a strategic failure, jeopardizing regional stability and security. The geopolitical importance of Georgia cannot be overstated, as its location is crucial for countering Russian aggression in the Black Sea region: The erosion of democratic institutions in Georgia threatens to destabilize the country, providing Russia with greater leverage over the entire region. By controlling Georgia, — which is geo-strategically positioned on the Black Sea coast and along transcontinental east-west and north-south corridors — authoritarian regimes such as Russia, Iran, and China would have the possibility to diversify their trade, economic, and transportation options, further diminishing Western influence in the region. Additionally, Georgia’s alignment with those Eurasian authoritarian regimes would open new avenues for them to bypass sanctions, facilitate money laundering, and establish illicit trade and transportation routes to support their aggressive agendas. This shift would significantly bolster the war efforts of these countries in Ukraine and the Middle East, severely undermining Western interests and influence there. The geopolitical significance of Georgia is thus paramount, as its alignment can profoundly impact the balance of power and the effectiveness of Western strategies in countering authoritarian expansionism.

The way ahead

Not just a regional conflict, the ongoing war in Ukraine is a significant confrontation between Russia’s imperial ambitions and Western democratic values. Ensuring Russia’s defeat is crucial not only for achieving a lasting resolution that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty but also for preserving regional stability and Western interests in the wider Black Sea region. The outcome of this war will shape the future security landscape of Europe, influencing the region’s stability and determining whether the West can effectively counteract unprovoked aggression. Moreover, the end state of the war in Ukraine will dictate the relative levels of freedom, democracy, and prosperity of the smaller countries throughout the wider region, including Georgia. With those stakes in mind, the West needs a clear, united, and decisive strategy for how to address Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Western alliance must not only provide Ukraine with the necessary military support to achieve a pivotal breakthrough but also clearly articulate its objectives and reject any negotiations that would allow Russia to regroup and continue its aggression.

Western indecisiveness risks allowing Russia to further its interests at the expense of regional stability and the sovereignty of neighboring states. The Euro-Atlantic community must commit to reversing Russian aggression and supporting forces dedicated to democracy and the rule of law, ensuring that pro-democracy stakeholders in Georgia remain key partners in this effort. The future of the United States’ engagement with Georgia is critical in determining the country’s trajectory. The US must, therefore, adopt a proactive approach, supporting democratic forces within Georgia and countering Russian influence. The Black Sea Security Act and MEGOBARI Act, which were passed in the US Congress in response to the turbulence in the region, provide a solid framework for increased engagement. Still, more proactive and resolute action from Georgia’s allies in implementing those approaches is more urgent than ever. Although the West has started imposing sanctions on the Georgian Dream government in response to its autocratic turn, the US must engage strategically at a high political level to reverse Georgia’s escalating drift into Russia’s orbit and prevent adverse outcomes.

Amb. Shota Gvineria is a lecturer in Defense and Cyber Studies at the Baltic Defence College and a senior fellow at the Economic Policy Research Center. He has previously served as the Deputy Secretary at the National Security Council of Georgia, Foreign Policy Advisor to the Minister of Defense of Georgia, and Ambassador of Georgia to the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

Photo by Mirian Meladze/Anadolu via Getty Images