Turkey's Presidential Elections

On August 10, Turkish voters will go to the polls to choose a new president for the first time in the country's history. The following candidates are on the ballot: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister and leader of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP); Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, joint candidate for the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and Nationalist Action Party (MHP); and Selahattin Demirtas, the candidate of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP). Election results will not only determine the new president of the country but also the future course of Turkish politics.

Erdogan’s campaign is focused on transforming Turkey’s parliamentary system into a presidential one. If Erdogan is successful, he would gain significant power and would likely be able to govern for another decade. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, the former head of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the top challenger to Erdogan, wants to preserve the country’s parliamentary system and assume the largely ceremonial post of the current president. The Demirtas campaign champions the Kurdish cause, but from a wider democratization and human rights angle.

In the March 30 local elections, Erdogan’s AKP and the CHP-MHP bloc each received 43 percent of the vote. This makes the pro-Kurdish party, which garnered 6.5 percent of the vote, potentially the kingmaker in the upcoming presidential elections, especially if there is a runoff.

If public opinion polls are accurate, Erdogan will secure more than 50 percent and win in the first round. If none of the contenders garners an absolute majority, the two candidates with the most votes in the first round will run in the second round on August 24. The pro-Kurdish HDP is a small party and its candidate Demirtas is unlikely to be a contender in the second round, leaving the Kurdish vote up for grabs.

The Turkish government began peace talks with jailed Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan in 2012 to end the conflict, but few legal provisions have been made for negotiating with Ocalan's banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Kurdish groups have expressed concern that the process is being dragged out, and have been pushing for a legal framework that would ensure those involved in the talks would not be prosecuted in case the political tide turns against the peace process in future.

In an effort to revive the long-stalled “peace process” and garner Kurdish votes, Prime Minister Erdogan introduced a bill entitled "The Law for the Cessation of Terrorism and Integration into Society,” which was passed by the parliament in July. According to the bill, security agencies as well as government representatives will be able to hold talks with the PKK. The law also includes proposals for PKK members who lay down their arms and those who “have no blood on their hands,” and grants amnesty and rehabilitation programs to the youths that were kidnapped by the PKK to join the combat.

The legislation is an important milestone. It not only grants the PKK recognition, but also makes the organization a legitimate interlocutor in the “peace process.” 

Sunday’s elections are critical. Election results will determine not only whether Turkey will continue with the parliamentary system or shift to a presidential one, but also the fate of the “peace process” with the country’s Kurds. If Erdogan wins and the HDP candidate Selahattin Demirtas secures more than 10 percent of the vote, as suggested by some public opinion polls, the Kurds can raise the bar in their negotiations with the government ahead of the 2015 general elections.