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The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
  • Analysis
  • The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?

    On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.

    The Mecca Alliance Meets the Red Sea – Saudi Arabia’s New Defense Pact Faces Its First Major Test
  • Commentary
  • The Mecca Alliance Meets the Red Sea – Saudi Arabia’s New Defense Pact Faces Its First Major Test

    When Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed to a mutual defense pact in August, it was principally seen as a political commitment. The “Mecca alliance,” as it was dubbed, stipulated that an armed attack on one would be treated as an attack on all three, accompanied by deeper military cooperation.

    The Case for a Middle Course in Afghanistan
  • Commentary
  • The Case for a Middle Course in Afghanistan

    I was a teenage Afghan refugee in Pakistan’s tribal areas when the Twin Towers fell. Almost nobody around us understood the politics of what had happened, but we knew that something had changed for good. Afghanistan, which until then had been our private tragedy and our first exile from Taliban rule, had suddenly become the world’s concern, with the United States leading the response.

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    Looking to repair ties, Pakistan’s Gen. Bajwa heads to Saudi Arabia
    Photo by FAROOQ NAEEM/AFP via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • Looking to repair ties, Pakistan’s Gen. Bajwa heads to Saudi Arabia

    All is not well in Pakistan-Saudi relations, which seem to have gone into a tailspin. In order to repair the fractured ties with one of the country’s strongest allies, Pakistan’s army has swung into action and its chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, will travel to Saudi Arabia for talks this weekend.

    August 14, 2020

    What does China’s growing engagement in Afghanistan mean for the US?
    Xinhua/Yue Yuewei via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • What does China’s growing engagement in Afghanistan mean for the US?

    On July 27, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a video conference with his counterparts from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nepal to suggest expanding their pandemic cooperation and proposed extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor into Afghanistan. Although the details about what this quadrilateral framework would entail and how it would work are unclear, any movement toward its institutionalization would be a serious challenge for the United States.

    August 7, 2020

    Monday Briefing | Lebanon: The twilight of an impotent government
  • Commentary
  • Monday Briefing | Lebanon: The twilight of an impotent government

    This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Paul Salem, Hafsa Halawa, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Anne-Linda Amira Augustin, and Gerald Feierstein.

    August 3, 2020

    US-Russia rift exacerbates Afghanistan’s crisis of confidence
    Photo by MANNY CENETA/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • US-Russia rift exacerbates Afghanistan’s crisis of confidence

    Multiple signs point to a crisis of confidence in Afghanistan. Ever since the publication of a sensational report alleging that a Russian military intelligence unit secretly offered bounties to the Taliban to kill American soldiers, there has been an intense debate about the possibility of peace in Afghanistan following the U.S. exit.

    July 10, 2020

    Moscow’s Evolving Southern Strategy
  • Analysis
  • Moscow’s Evolving Southern Strategy

    Despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, the newly independent states of the Caspian and Russia are still deeply intertwined in each other’s economies, security, and cultures. Moscow has continued to wield considerable military, political, and economic influence in the region.

    July 1, 2020

    Iran’s influence in Afghanistan
    Photo by WAKIL KOHSAR/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Iran’s influence in Afghanistan

    Despite strong religious and cultural ties and a long shared border, Iran has a somewhat complicated relationship with Afghanistan. Since the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan some four decades ago, Iran’s attempts to preserve its interests in conflict-ridden Afghanistan have not received much attention from the outside world, but it remains one of the most important neighboring countries for Tehran’s foreign policy.

    June 23, 2020

    Disarray in Pakistan’s health crisis
    Photo by FAROOQ NAEEM/AFP via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • Disarray in Pakistan’s health crisis

    Mainly at issue for the country is the difficult choice of whether to prioritize saving lives or saving the economy for a Pakistan that can ill afford to ignore either.

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    The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.