Afghanistan-Pakistan

This article originally appeared in the National Interest online under the title "Collapse Imminent in Afghanistan" on April 21, 2011

The Middle East Institute is proud to host Staffan De Mistura, the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Afghanistan, for a lecture and discussion on the UN's mission in Afghanistan. De Mistura will speak at MEI following the UN Security Council debate on the mandate renewal of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). The Security Council resolution with the new mandate is scheduled to be adopted on March 22, 2011, the day of this event.

The Middle East Institute, in partnership with the Fondation Pour le Recherche Strategique, is proud to host Dr. Susanne Schmeidl and Dr. Geraldine Chatelard for a discussion of situations of protracted mass displacement in Afghanistan and Iraq. Funded by the European Commission, the project aims to generate policy recommendations that will strengthen transatlantic cooperation to respond to the refugee crises in the above-mentioned countries. The event will feature the findings of the two project team leaders, based on more than two dozen field-research papers.

The Middle East Institute presents a lecture and discussion with Andrew Exum, Fellow at the Center for A New American Security, assessing the possibility of a new Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan and its ramifications for U.S. strategy there. The past six months have seen some remarkable successes in southern Afghanistan. But if hard-won security gains collapse in the face of a renewed Taliban offensive in 2011, the NATO strategy to secure Afghanistan will be in grave danger.

The Middle East Institute hosts a lecture and discussion with Mark N. Katz, examining the impact of the current and future US withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan on Islamic radicals. Katz argues that the US withdrawals from both countries will lead radicals to conclude they have defeated the US in the "War on Terror" and that US regional strength is on the decline. This, he argues, will spur Islamic radicals to seek further gains elsewhere.

Few question the desirability of finding a political resolution to the Afghan conflict or doubt Pakistan’s pivotal role. The growing divide of opinion in this country is over how best to achieve that outcome. One camp led by our military strategists insists that various political agreements are likely to result from accumulated military successes, sustained by Afghan governance reforms and economic improvements. Visible counterinsurgency gains are expected to gradually wean fighters away from the ranks of the insurgency.

This Commentary first appeared in McClatchy News on January 5, 2011.

The assassination of Salman Taseer, the governor of Punjab, Pakistan's largest province, has illustrated the increasingly chaotic environment in that country, which only promises to get worse in the new year. Weeks before his death, Taseer had the courage to say what his fellow politicians were unwilling to: that Pakistan's blasphemy law must be repealed in order for Pakistan to enter the community of modern nations.

Originally posted November 2010

With Pakistan caught up in four wars during the past nine years — the Afghanistan war, the War on Terror, the insurgency in the tribal areas, and the wave of terrorism unleashed by the Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) and the Punjabi Taliban in the rest of the country — it has often been said that the country is facing an existential threat. If this was a cliché before, it is no more so after the catastrophic floods. Pakistan had been living dangerously in the past, but the wars and floods threaten to wash away its future.

Originally posted November 2010