The Americans Are Gone. Will Iraq’s Militias Disarm?
On September 30, the US completed its military withdrawal from Iraq, ending a 12-year-long mission to combat ISIS that began in 2014. The date was also meant to be the deadline for disarming the largely Iranian-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), but Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has now pushed that cutoff back to June 30, 2027. MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Amb. (ret.) Robert S. Ford joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss what the US military withdrawal means for Iraqi security and the nature of the bilateral relationship going forward. They also speak about what it will take for Baghdad to bring the PMF militias to heel, and how Iraq may navigate the post-Iran war era.
Jordan’s Economy Weathers Iran War’s Shocks and Finds New Opportunities
In the summer of 2003, King Abdullah II told Bloomberg Jordan sits “between Iraq and a hard place,” a play on words designed to describe the kingdom’s challenging environment to an American audience amid the US-led Iraq war to the east and the lingering Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the west. Jordan is grappling with a much “harder place” today.
Proponents of the war with Iran have taken recent increases in crude-oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as proof that the US strategy is finally working. President Trump is so confident in this that he recently rejected a seven-day plan, set forward by Iran’s foreign ministry, to end the war and open the strait. The United States is “winning tremendously,” Trump boasted.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi visited Turkey on Wednesday to discuss potential joint steps against northern Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) following last month’s independence referendum. Ankara is hoping to influence Iraqi politics by cultivating close ties to Baghdad, but the newly forged Turkish-Iraqi alliance is unlikely to hold, leaving Turkey isolated in the post-referendum Iraq.
P.M.F. Spokesman: We’ll Hold U.S. Responsible for Calling Muhandis “Terrorist”
Leaders of Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) rushed to defend Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the paramilitary forces’ chief operational commander, after U.S. State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert called Muhandis a “terrorist” at a press briefing on Thursday. “These remarks indicate a direct threat to Muhandis’ life and we hold America responsible for any attempt or harm to the life of the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces,” P.M.F.
Iran-Backed Iraqi Militia Forces Advancing to Capture al-Qaim Near Syrian Border
The chief operational commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) issued a statement yesterday outlining plans for the paramilitary forces and Iraqi troops to liberate the towns of Rawa and al-Qaim on the Euphrates River in western al-Anbar Province near the border with Syria. “We seek to lock down the entire Iraqi-Syrian border from north to south,” the statement said. In an interview with the Lebanese al-Mayadeen news outlet earlier today, P.M.F.
Top Clerics Back Khamenei in Rejecting Missile Talks with West
Senior Iranian clerics on Friday backed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s earlier remarks that Iran’s defense capabilities, including its controversial missile program, are non-negotiable. During their Friday prayer sermons, the clerics emphasized that the Islamic Republic will defy international pressure and continue to further enhance its military assets. They also encouraged worshippers to participate in the upcoming National Day against Global Arrogance to condemn the Trump administration’s anti-Iran policies.
I.R.G.C. Claims It Dismantled “Terrorist Team” in Northwest Iran
Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) announced on Thursday that its forces “dismantled a terrorist team” in Chaldaran region of northwestern Azerbaijan Province. According to a statement released by the public relations department of I.R.G.C.’s Hamze Sayyid al-Shohada Base, four “terrorists’ were killed in armed clashes between I.R.G.C. forces and the militants.
In their new report for the Atlantic Council, “U.S. Strategy Options for Iran’s Regional Challenge,” and an essay version published in the Washington Quarterly, Bilal Saab and Kenneth M. Pollack lay out a “pushback” strategy to weaken Iran’s regional influence. The co-authors join host Paul Salem to weigh the strengths and weaknesses of this and other strategies in this week’s podcast.
Wars Distracting Middle East from Serious Climate Change Threats
Wars in MENA are causing irreparable damage to water security and resilience to climate change in some of the region’s countries and to their viability. The continuation of this dangerous state could ultimately reinforce even deeper instability in MENA.
Khamenei Urges Visiting Iraqi Leader not to Rely on America
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi today in Tehran that he should not trust the United States as a reliable partner in the fight against terrorism, the Iranian media reported. “The Americans themselves created Daesh [Islamic State]. But now that the terrorists are defeated by the Iraqi government and people, they pretend to be supportive and helpful.
Khamenei: No Negotiations with Enemy over Iran’s Defense Capabilities
Defying U.S. pressure, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated on Wednesday that the country’s defense capabilities and assets are non-negotiable, Tasnim News Agency reported.
Iraqi Hezbollah: Our Heroes Fired First Shots at U.S. Soldiers, Expelled them from Iraq
Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iranian-sponsored Iraqi militia group, said today that the United States and its regional allies created the Islamic State three years ago to destabilize Iraq and Syria. A statement released by the group claimed that “heroes of the Hezbollah Brigades had the privilege of firing the first shots at the U.S.
Tillerson’s Remarks and Saudi-Iraqi Meeting in Riyadh Worried Tehran
The 2003 ouster of the Saddam regime and the emergence of the Islamic State in 2014 in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal helped Iran to become the most influential foreign power in Iraq. However, there is a growing concern in Tehran that the latest U.S.-backed diplomatic efforts by Saudi Arabia to forge close ties with the Iraqi government and Shiite leaders may undercut Iranian influence in Iraq.
Yemen’s Humanitarian Disaster: Halting the Famine Threat
Summary
Only several months after the Saudi-led military coalition waged its ongoing campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in March 2015, the United Nations began issuing warnings about famine. Today, millions of Yemenis are on the brink of famine, with about half a million suffering from a cholera outbreak. This paper analyzes the causes of Yemen’s humanitarian catastrophe and offers the Trump administration recommendations for helping the impoverished Arab state avoid a famine.
An Obstacle to Riyadh’s Outreach to Baghdad: Iraqi Interior Minister’s Ties with I.R.G.C.
After a long period of disengagement, Saudi Arabia is improving its relations with the Iraqi government and Shiite leaders to challenge Iran’s long-established influence in the country. Riyadh has recently hosted several Iraqi leaders for talks, including Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, Interior Minister Qasim Mohammad Jalal al-Araji, and Muqtada al-Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric and politician.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s recent remarks about the role of Iranian-led militias in Iraq have sparked a lot of controversy. “Certainly, Iranian militias that are in Iraq, now that the fight against Daesh and ISIS is coming to a close, those militias need to go home,” Tillerson said at a press conference in Riyadh on October 22 just before departing for Baghdad.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
