The Americans Are Gone. Will Iraq’s Militias Disarm?
On September 30, the US completed its military withdrawal from Iraq, ending a 12-year-long mission to combat ISIS that began in 2014. The date was also meant to be the deadline for disarming the largely Iranian-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), but Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has now pushed that cutoff back to June 30, 2027. MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Amb. (ret.) Robert S. Ford joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss what the US military withdrawal means for Iraqi security and the nature of the bilateral relationship going forward. They also speak about what it will take for Baghdad to bring the PMF militias to heel, and how Iraq may navigate the post-Iran war era.
Jordan’s Economy Weathers Iran War’s Shocks and Finds New Opportunities
In the summer of 2003, King Abdullah II told Bloomberg Jordan sits “between Iraq and a hard place,” a play on words designed to describe the kingdom’s challenging environment to an American audience amid the US-led Iraq war to the east and the lingering Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the west. Jordan is grappling with a much “harder place” today.
Proponents of the war with Iran have taken recent increases in crude-oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as proof that the US strategy is finally working. President Trump is so confident in this that he recently rejected a seven-day plan, set forward by Iran’s foreign ministry, to end the war and open the strait. The United States is “winning tremendously,” Trump boasted.
President Donald Trump declared today that he will not certify the Iran nuclear agreement, arguing the deal does not serve U.S. national security interests. “I am announcing today that we cannot and will not make this certification,” he said during a speech at the White House.
Iran Reacts Angrily to Trump’s Speech, Rules out Renegotiation of Deal
The Iranian government has released a statement in reaction to President Donald Trump’s speech today, accusing the United States of violating its commitments under the 2015 nuclear accord and emphasizing that Tehran will not renegotiate the deal. “The JCPOA is a valid international instrument and an outstanding achievement in contemporary diplomacy. It cannot be renegotiated or altered. The nuclear deal is not a bilateral agreement that can be annulled by unilateral action.” The statement called on the international community not to allow the Trump administration to undermine the deal.
Iran Sees Iraqi Kurdistan’s Push for Independence as “Israeli Project”
Iranian officials and state-run media outlets continue to label the recent Iraqi Kurdish leaders’ push for independence as an “Israeli project” aimed at countering Iran’s influence in the region. Grand Ayatollah Hossein Nuri Hamedani, a senior Iranian cleric, said this week that Tehran would not “allow a new Israel to take shape in the region.” An article in Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), echoed a similar view.
Iranian Outlet Assesses Russia's Options If U.S. Leaves Nuclear Deal
An article in hardline Javan Online analyzes Russia’s potential responses if the Trump administration walks away from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the nuclear deal Iran signed with the United States, Russia, China, Germany, France and Britain in 2015. The analysis piece, entitled “Russia and J.C.P.O.A.
Iran’s Central Bank Chief Visits Turkey to Finalize Currency Swap Deal
Valiollah Seif, the head of the Central Bank of Iran (C.B.I.), has traveled to Ankara to meet with his Turkish counterpart and finalize a plan to do trade exchanges based on currency swap, Tasnim News Agency reported. He expressed the hope that the move would help the two countries efforts to meet their goal of boosting the volume of annual bilateral trade to $30 billion.
Iran Warns Trump against Leaving J.C.P.O.A., Blacklisting I.R.G.C.
As the Trump administration is expected to decertify Iran’s compliance with the nuclear agreement this week, Iranian leaders are mulling their options on how to respond. While de-certification does not mean Washington is necessarily walking away from the accord and it will be up to Congress to decide whether to keep the deal or re-impose sanctions on Iran, Tehran is preparing for the worst-case scenario. Even if U.S. unilaterally abandons the deal, the Rouhani government appears willing to stay in the deal as long as European powers disregard U.S.
Top Iranian Military Official: It's Time to Teach America New Lessons
The deputy chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces has warned that his country will confront the Trump administration’s “aggressive policies” by “teaching America new lessons.” Hinting that Iran may take action against U.S. interests in the region, Brigadier General Massoud Jazzayeri emphasized that it is essential for Tehran to confront America’s “destabilizing behavior” in the region. “The era of America’s presence and domination in West Asia has come to an end,” he stressed, adding that the U.S.
The Trump administration has decided to lift most sanctions on Sudan, according to a report in the Washington Post, October 6. The move reflects a range of administration priorities, including a desire to isolate North Korea further as well as to use sanctions relief rather than the sanctions themselves to leverage additional Sudanese reforms.
Iran Rejects Reports on Possible Talks over Its Missile Program
Iran’s Foreign Ministry rejected media reports on Iran’s willingness to negotiate its missile program with the United States. Baharm Ghassemi, the ministry’s spokesman, said the Iranian government vehemently refutes claims made in a Reuters report that Tehran was ready to negotiate parts of its controversial missile activities.
An article in state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (I.R.N.A.) analyzes Tehran’s options if the United States unilaterally abandons the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the nuclear agreement Iran signed with world powers in July 2015. It points out that the Trump administration appears to be refusing to certify Iran’s compliance with the J.C.P.O.A. despite objections from the other signatories of the deal – Germany, France, Britain, Russia and China.
Debate in Iran over Europe as Reliable Partner in Nuclear Standoff
As the Trump administration is threatening to walk away from the Iran nuclear agreement, an intense debate is taking place inside Iran about whether the Islamic Republic can count on Europe as a reliable partner against Washington’s “unilateralism.” During Friday prayers in Tehran today, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, a member of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, called on the Rouhani government “not to rely on European support because if Europe has to choose between Iran and America, it will choose America.” He accused Washington of
Zarif: Iran Will Always Be Iraqi Kurds’ Friend despite “Strategic Mistake”
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif today attended the funeral procession of Jalal Talabani, Iraqi Kurdish leader and former President, in the Sulaymaniyah city of Iraqi Kurdistan.
On September 25 Iraq’s Kurdish region pressed ahead with a controversial independence referendum. It had a high voter turnout of 73%, 93% of whom voted in favor of independence. The referendum is technically non-binding but it has sparked a political crisis with threats of action against the Kurdish region from its neighbors, Turkey and Iran, as well as Iraq’s central government. The United States also opposed the vote. MEI experts Randa Slim, Gonul Tol, and Ahmad Majidyar join host Paul Salem to discuss the implications of the vote and what happens next.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
