The Americans Are Gone. Will Iraq’s Militias Disarm?
On September 30, the US completed its military withdrawal from Iraq, ending a 12-year-long mission to combat ISIS that began in 2014. The date was also meant to be the deadline for disarming the largely Iranian-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), but Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has now pushed that cutoff back to June 30, 2027. MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Amb. (ret.) Robert S. Ford joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss what the US military withdrawal means for Iraqi security and the nature of the bilateral relationship going forward. They also speak about what it will take for Baghdad to bring the PMF militias to heel, and how Iraq may navigate the post-Iran war era.
Jordan’s Economy Weathers Iran War’s Shocks and Finds New Opportunities
In the summer of 2003, King Abdullah II told Bloomberg Jordan sits “between Iraq and a hard place,” a play on words designed to describe the kingdom’s challenging environment to an American audience amid the US-led Iraq war to the east and the lingering Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the west. Jordan is grappling with a much “harder place” today.
Proponents of the war with Iran have taken recent increases in crude-oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as proof that the US strategy is finally working. President Trump is so confident in this that he recently rejected a seven-day plan, set forward by Iran’s foreign ministry, to end the war and open the strait. The United States is “winning tremendously,” Trump boasted.
At a press conference on January 17, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated that “Iran would welcome working with Saudi Arabia to bring about a more stable Middle East.” He urged for “moderation” and “respect.” This message from the Iranian president is positive and should be applauded. However, the question in so many capitals around the Middle East is whether Rouhani’s posture and message of “moderation” has any bearing on the actual policies that Tehran is presently pursuing in the region.
The leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran is publicly committed to good relations with Bahrain. And yet Tehran’s campaign to undermine the ruling authorities in Manama continues unabated. The latest incendiary reactions from Tehran came in response to the January 15 executions in Bahrain of three men who had been convicted of killing three police officers in 2014.
President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for the Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson said yesterday that he would conduct a “full review” of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal if the Senate confirmed him. Speaking before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Tillerson pledged that he would add further verification systems to “clarify whether Iran is complying.”
The existence of political prisoners in Iran is hardly a new phenomenon but it is a topic that is proving increasingly damning for Tehran. In particular, it is the media in the large Iranian diaspora, which has been at the forefront in recent weeks to highlight the individual cases of political prisoners that have opted to go on hunger strike in order to bring attention to their cases.
A top Iranian diplomat and the deputy foreign minister for European and American affairs, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, stated on January 12 that Iran will not under any circumstances “renegotiate” the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that was reached between Iran and world powers in July 2015.
Iran Will Receive 130-Ton Uranium Shipment from Russia
On January 12, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) confirmed that Tehran will soon receive a shipment of 130 tons of natural uranium that it has purchased from Russia.
In Iran, 40 Former Political Prisoners Ask for “National Reconciliation”
In an open letter, 40 formerly imprisoned political activists affiliated with the Green opposition movement have asked the Iranian authorities to reconsider their policies. The signatories of the letter urged the authorities to utilize the recent passing of Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as “an opportunity for dialogue and national reconciliation.”
The question about whether Iran and Russia can sustain the recent elevation in relations is hotly debated in Tehran. This urgency is brought about as the Iranians and the Russians are pushing ahead to see if they can coordinate their policies on the question of a political settlement for the Syrian war that will satisfy both Moscow and also Tehran’s objectives.
Iran-Backed Militant Groups Make Territorial Gains in West Mosul
On January 12, Iran’s Fars News Agency (FNA) reported that the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) “liberated” three regions in the west of Mosul.
According to FNA, an outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), PMF forces are preparing for the “sixth phase of operations to liberate the west of Nineveh Province.”
New Report: Human Rights Situation Hasn't Improved under Rouhani
In its World Report 2017 published today, the Human Rights Watch said President Hassan Rouhani has not delivered on his campaign promise to improve the human rights situation in Iran over the past three years.
The confirmation hearing of the man slated to be the next US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has received a mixed review in Iran. On the one hand, Tillerson’s remarks on Iran were hardly encouraging to Iranian ears.
The recent announcement by Saudi Arabia that the retired Pakistani General Raheel Sharif will head a 39-member anti-terrorism coalition made of Muslim states is a matter of much concern in Tehran. Iran, which was not invited to join the coalition, regards the Saudi initiative as a regional project aimed to contain its influence.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
