The US administration appears to have great expectations for Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali Falah al-Zaidi. But the expectations need to be tempered.
After months of deadlock following the November 2025 elections, Iraq’s parliament approved a new government under Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi on May 14, 2026 — just as the country has become a battleground in the US-Israel-Iran war. Zaidi inherits a daunting brief: reviving a struggling economy, reining in armed factions, and steering Iraq through a perilous regional landscape. Dr. Renad Mansour, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme and director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, joins host Alistair Taylor to discuss the war’s impact on Iraq — from Iran’s militia networks to the surge of attacks on the Kurdistan region — and how it’s reshaping Baghdad’s ties with Tehran and Washington.
Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Amb. (ret.) Robert S. Ford to examine what is at stake for Iraq in the Iran war. The only country to have been hit by both sides, Iraq is caught in the middle of a regional conflict, with the local Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) carrying out attacks on American interests and personnel — and the US responding. This escalation comes at a period of internal political transition in Iraq, which has been locked in negotiations to form a new government since the November 2025 elections. Ford, who served as Deputy and later Acting Ambassador in Baghdad from 2008 until 2010, unpacks how Iraq is navigating the current moment, how the Kurdistan region fits into this equation, and what this all means for the future of US-Iraqi relations.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, and Randa Slim provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s decision on whether to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, what this weekend’s election results in Lebanon indicate about Hezbollah’s standing in the country, and expectations for the outcome of Iraq’s elections on May 12.
Nabil Musa learned how to swim and fish in the Tanjero River in the city of Sulaymaniyah, Iraq. The Tanjero eventually joins the Tigris River, which, together with the Euphrates River, gave life to Mesopotamia.
With Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections nearing, the coalition of Iranian-supported militia groups called Fateh Alliance is confident that it can translate its military gains into a political victory by either winning the premiership or playing kingmaker in the post-election government formation process, according to Tasnim News Agency, an outlet affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
Since the ratification of Iraq’s constitution in 2005, Iraq has struggled to interpret clauses 111 and 112, which stipulate that oil is the property of the Iraqi people and its revenues should be shared equitably. Several draft laws on hydrocarbon management, energy sector regulation, and oil revenue distribution have remained stalled because of differences between the federal government and the Kurdistan region over the interpretation of those clauses.
Fifteen years after the fall of the dictatorial regime of Saddam Hussein, Iraq is still engaged in the process of transitioning to a system of governance representative of its population. The new Iraq has experienced meaningful progress and serious setbacks. While the upcoming elections, slated for May, promise a further constructive push, Iraq faces serious structural impediments to progress—including a divisive political environment and significant social challenges in the wake of ISIS—and should expect incremental rather than revolutionary change.
A prominent Iranian-backed Iraqi militia group has said that its forces will stand by the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria to defend it against any attacks by the United States and its allies.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian paid a one-day visit to Tehran on Monday to discuss Iran’s controversial missile program and regional activities. Iranian leaders told the top French diplomat that European countries should put pressure on the Trump administration to keep and implement that Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal Iran signed with world powers in July 2015.
Hadi al-Amiri, the head of the Badr Organization, has said that an alliance of Shiite militia forces that fought against the Islamic State will now shift attention to politics and will participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections. In an interview with the Lebanese al-Mayadeen TV, Amiri said that the Fateh Alliance, a coalition of Iranian-supported Shiite units within the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), will take an active part in the elections and expressed the hope that it can play a major role in the next government.
A commander of the Iraqi paramilitary forces known as Hashd al-Shaabi has called for suspension of Asharq al-Awsat in Iraq, accusing the pan-Arab daily of propagating against the paramilitary forces. According Iran’s Fars News Agency, Karim al-Nouri, a commander of the Iranian-backed Badr Organization and a spokesman for Hashd al-Shaabi, was reacting to an article in the newspaper which warned about Hashd al-Shaabi turning into a Shiite-only organization in Iraq.
Recent media reports suggesting that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman plan to pay a historic visit to Iraq has alarmed Iran and its Iraqi allies. Baghdad and Riyadh have not confirmed the reports, but Iranian-backed politicians and militia commanders in Iraq have launched a campaign against the Crown Prince’s potential visit, rejecting latest steps by the Baghdad government to improve ties with Riyadh and questioning the timing of bin Salman’s trip ahead of the country’s parliamentary elections.
The March 6 arrest of Hossein Shirazi, son of prominent Iraqi Persian cleric Ayatollah Sadeq Shirazi, has triggered protests by non-Iranian Shiites – signifying the inherent tensions between the Iranian state and transnational Shiite clergy institutions.
Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, an Iranian-supported Iraqi militia group, has accused the US military forces of trying to rig Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections in Sunni regions, Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reported.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
