Levant

Turkey’s municipal elections are in fact not local but a national referendum on the continued rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With his complete domination of every aspect of Turkey’s politics and media, as well as military, judicial, and educational institutions, it would be foolish to underestimate his ability to emerge a winner on March 31.

ISIS’s self-proclaimed Caliphate in Syria and Iraq came to an end on March 23, when the Syrian Democratic Forces, backed by the U.S.-led international coalition, liberated the town of Baghouz after a tough six week battle. In some respects however, the military victory against ISIS was the easy part.

Following the liberation of ISIS-held territory in Syria and Iraq, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is reestablishing ties with regional actors as a means to mobilize Arab support for the Palestinian cause.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi’s first foreign trip to Egypt, the future threat posed by ISIS, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s AIPAC meeting in Washington, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Lebanon.

That the relationship between the Ba’ath regime in Syria and the ayatollahs of the Islamic Republic is one of loveless realpolitik is no secret to anyone with a passing familiarity with the history of Damascus-Tehran ties. The end of the war in Syria has already begun to expose faults in the unlikely marriage between a militant secular Arab regime rooted in the independence politics of the colonial era and the revolutionary rule of the wilayat al-faqih.

On March 7 President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that Turkey’s decision to buy the Russian S-400 missile defense system is irrevocable. His remarks underlined Turkey’s strategic decision to turn away from NATO as a genuine partnership.

The radicalized children of the Islamic State will threaten the world for generations to come unless the president changes course.

The image of a unified Israeli-Saudi front has significant deterrence value against Iran but should also be used within the context of solving the GCC crisis.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Paul Salem, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Wa’el Alzayat, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Algeria’s ongoing political crisis, the 16th anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, criticism of the U.S.-Taliban talks by Afghanistan’s national security advisor, international fundraising efforts to aid Syria, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s fading political clout.

This analysis explains how the Salafi-Jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has legally justified its relations with Turkey. Although HTS was careful to avoid direct military collaboration with Turkey, it welcomed the Turkish Army’s presence as an additional force against the Syrian regime and secular opposition groups. This caused a significant rift among the group’s supporters and the al-Qaeda community, who accused HTS of thwarting its own jihad by forming relations with Turkey, considered by Salafi-Jihadists to be an apostate.

Perhaps the most immediate challenge facing the Syrian Democratic Forces is what to do with the influx of ISIS members and their families that have poured out of ISIS’s last stronghold, particularly since February 2019.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Robert S. Ford, Marvin G. Weinbaum, James P. Farwell, Emadeddin Badi, Guney Yildiz, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s visit to Baghdad, reconstruction efforts in Syria, the crackdown on militant Islamists in Pakistan, Iran’s cyber attack capabilities, upcoming elections in Libya, Turkish-Egyptian tensions, and Qatar’s $12B loan from bond markets.

Theorizing the future of the Arab Gulf states and the broader Middle East requires a proper assessment of the state of power distribution in the region. Is there a new balance of power emerging in the Middle East, or is the distribution of power heading in a more dangerous direction?

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Marvin G. Weinbaum, Robert S. Ford, Alex Vatanka, and Birol Baskan provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including a potential agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan, protests in Algeria, Rouhani’s planned trip to Baghdad, and recent Turkish naval exercises.